Bomb Low: Jul 25-29th 2008

[Manukau heads obs]

Latest met service foreast for saturday

A very strong easterly flow is expected to develop over the North Island as a deep low moves towards Northland. Rain is expected to spread over the whole island with heavy falls in the north and east. Easterly gales are expected in many places, with severe gales possible for Northland, Coromandel and Auckland.

[Nev]

one thing is, there is no real high pressure to the SE of the system, i..e its not running into a high pressure system....not like the one we had last time...was that last winter or the winter before? (with big easterly winds that caused damage)...

July 10, last year. 180km/h easterly gusts at Tiri-tiri.
No power here for 27hrs and well over a week (or was it weeks?) elsewhere.

[Philip Duncan]

This is looking particularly nasty now. I've just updated the news...and will update again soon: http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz although granted most people in this forum are considerably advanced at predicting their own forecasts.

The shape of NZ makes this hard to pinpoint...it can so easily slide down either coast. But am I right in seeing predictions of 968hp??? Anyone else agree/disagree with that?

Phil
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz

[gllitz]

NOGAPS, at least, is showing it down to about 972mb....(based on most recent 18Z run...) by 1800 NSZT on SAT and then round 2 coming by TUES/WED...(but no where near as deep..."only" 990 os so)...you guys up north are in for a rough one, if they pan out the way they are... 8o 8o

[Myself]

This is looking particularly nasty now. I've just updated the news...and will update again soon: http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz although granted most people in this forum are considerably advanced at predicting their own forecasts.

The shape of NZ makes this hard to pinpoint...it can so easily slide down either coast. But am I right in seeing predictions of 968hp??? Anyone else agree/disagree with that?

Phil
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz

I'm sure there's plenty of jet stream divergence able to fuel it to those sorts of levels, though the Euro model might be overdoing it a touch.
Just to be pedantic, it's hPa, not hp....one is hectopascals, the other is horsepower!

[NZstorm]

Does anyone have record low pressure data for northern NZ?

[trickytiger]

I have found the record low hpa for Christchurch which was: 965.0 mb
Wellington record low hpa: 941.0 hpa
Patumahoe record low hpa: 964.7 hpa

These may not be up-to-date record lows as they are from weather stations that may not of been around when the real record lows were recorded.

Sources: http://www.zl3gp.co.nz/dailyrecords.php
http://www.kiwiweather.co.nz/whitbyweat ... ecords.htm
http://www.farmit.co.nz/weatherdisplaylive/

[Myself]

I have found the record low hpa for Christchurch which was: 965.0 mb
Wellington record low hpa: 941.0 hpa

Am looking to see if I can find it for northern NZ also

Sources: http://www.zl3gp.co.nz/dailyrecords.php
http://www.kiwiweather.co.nz/whitbyweat ... ecords.htm

I think that Wellington reading is NZ's lowest ever also.

[NZstorm]

I can't believe the 941hpa at Wellington. I am referring to MSL readings. Thanks for the info above.

[trickytiger]

you could be right there, I can't find any places in NZ as low as the Wellington reading

[Manukau heads obs]

http://www.farmit.co.nz/weatherdisplaylive/

thats not a accurate low pressure reading
the year is 2005
I would say a spike reading or a in correctly calibrated reading or similar

latest met service 7 day rain and map forecast model has the low passing right over auckland now, in the 1967 hpa range still!

[NZstorm]

I don't have facts but I suspect the barometer has never dropped below MSL960hpa on mainland NZ in the time pressure readings have been taken. As for northern NZ, I am sure the barometer has not dropped below 970hpa before in recorded hstory. So these models are charting new ground as far as pressure readings go by the looks.

[Ryan Thomas]

I was thinking that those stations had wrong lowest pressures, i mean look at some other figures. Charting new grounds?

[tgsnoopy]

latest met service 7 day rain and map forecast model has the low passing right over auckland now, in the 1967 hpa range still!

Wow, that high

Just proving I'm reading them

[Philip Duncan]

This is looking particularly nasty now. I've just updated the news...and will update again soon: http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz although granted most people in this forum are considerably advanced at predicting their own forecasts.

The shape of NZ makes this hard to pinpoint...it can so easily slide down either coast. But am I right in seeing predictions of 968hp??? Anyone else agree/disagree with that?

Phil
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz

I'm sure there's plenty of jet stream divergence able to fuel it to those sorts of levels, though the Euro model might be overdoing it a touch.
Just to be pedantic, it's hPa, not hp....one is hectopascals, the other is horsepower!

Woops!! Thanks for that! I'll correct it right away...been a busy week and Ive made a couple of typos today. Cheers!

[David]

Yes NZStorm, I thought that the 968hPa plotted over Auckland at 6pm Saturday would be around record low levels!

[gllitz]

An article about the storm a' brewin':

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4628621a11.html

[Philip Duncan]

This could well be the most intense tropical storm of the decade! (based on air pressure)

Phil
www.weatherwatch.co.nz

[Manukau heads obs]

i think you need to be carefull on the naming
I would think more sub tropical origin (although it could be argued that you could trace it all the way back to NW of Brisbane and so originating from the Tropics)

[NZstorm]

From what I have seen in the models its origins were north of Cairns. Unusual.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I can remember a very deep low passing over ChCh a couple of years back and the day was lovely and fine with not much wind, however a thunderstorm did develop around the back of Banks Peninsula later in the afternoon.
I'll have to consort my diaries to find the day and the hPa-idge.

JohnGaul
NZTS

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

You could call this storm The "Key" storm of 2008
or TC Winston?
Being a Winston storm, it would peter out, though
...but being the key storm for 2008, it could be the best one for a while

JohnGaul
NZTS

[Storm Struck]

Sure is a beast of a low i would be getting ready to batten down the hatches in the north island.
I was waiting for the runs to show an arm band swinging south onto the east coast of the south island and sure enough the models show it doing that, and should be more clear tomorrow.
I am thinking at this stage a period of scatterd to persistant rain on Sunday morning possibly heavy on the north canterbury Foothills as it will be a more strong to near gale force S-SE flow.
I like the look of the mid week low though .
Cheers
Jason.

[squid]

this storm formed just east of townsville so it was born in the tropics this is going to be a real bad one for you guys so battern down the hatches metservice has good reason to be concerned and so should everyone in the northern half of the north island this thing will have the strength of a cat 2 or 3 TC

[Ryan Thomas]

You could call this storm The "Key" storm of 2008
or TC Winston?
Being a Winston storm, it would peter out, though
...but being the key storm for 2008, it could be the best one for a while

JohnGaul
NZTS

That was such a bad pun that it made me laugh. But you think Christchurch will be affected by this in a way that isnt clear weather?