US Hurricane season 08

[NZstorm]

Looks like the eye of Gustav has crossed Cuba now. Will be interesting to see how much it can crank upto as it gets out onto the hot waters of the Gulf. Current pressure is 941mbs.

Stormtrack are running an interesting thread on Gustav
http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthr ... 60&page=20

[Vertigo]

http://www.stormpulse.com/fullscreen/current
this is going to be a big storm for the south of the US. 940mb,

[Inny Binny]

Wow, it really weakened in the last few hours. Now a central pressure of 958mb!

[NZstorm]

Yes, now a cat3 after crossing Cuba. Forecast to strengthen now that is out at sea.

[Vertigo]

yes, suprising considering the warmth of the gulf at the moment.

[Manukau heads obs]

i saw a discussion about a 20 knot shear limiting re intensification, and also a bit of dry aird has got into it
still expected to get to 115knot average though!
also some models have it slowing down alot after landfall.,....that could be the worse thing... the rain...

check out
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... geflt.html

some good boil ups around the eye again now!

[jamie]

Thanks to Stu who has set up a web cam and GPS for this event. He and Roger are there with a film crew. Heres the link http://www.severestudios.com/cgi-bin/st ... id=24</div>

What time is it ment to make landfall? I see its sped up quite a bit and has also bee restricted in intensification. Hopefully its day time so we can watch the web cam.

[Manukau heads obs]

a bouy at the mouth of the river..
http://www.wunderground.com/MAR/buoy/PSTL1.html

[David]

a bouy at the mouth of the river..
http://www.wunderground.com/MAR/buoy/PSTL1.html

Now averaging 106km/h and gusting 143km/h there! Wonder if it will record 200km/h? (if it survives)

[Philip Duncan]

Just had an amazing chat with someone in Lafayette - his 3rd major hurricane in 3 years. (u can read it at http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz). But he was saying that towns after Rita completely disappeared...but this storm hasn't got the same fears. He said it was dead calm where he was right now...and although windy in New Orleans it's still not too bad. I guess around midnight NZT it will be different.
For those who have Sky Digital i highly reccommend Fox News - wall to wall coverage! (done in true Fox News style haha!)

Cheers
Phil.
p.s. waves up to 28metres high in the Gulf earlier today...thats AMAZING!!!

[NZstorm]

I see SPC have a 5% tornado chance for LA.

Recent metars from Boothville, southern LA. looks like the anemometer has just gone!


KBVE 010828Z AUTO 1SM RA BR 26/24 A2928 RMK AO2 P0033 TSNO $

KBVE 010816Z AUTO 06039G60KT 3/4SM +RA BR BKN013 BKN018 OVC023 26/24 A2928 RMK AO2 PK WND 06060/0810 PRESFR P0021 TSNO $

KBVE 010751Z AUTO 06038G53KT 1 1/2SM +RA BR FEW015 BKN020 OVC030 26/24 A2934 RMK AO2 PK WND 07061/0730 PRESFR SLP936 P0016 T02610244 TSNO

[Manukau heads obs]

isnt it a bit overhyped (i.e people are gun shy)
i.e a 955 , cat 3 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico is just a garden variety one for them, one they get every summer, surely

(compared to the out of the ordinary katrina at 915 (Cat 5)
?
(although Cuba took alot of strength out of it)
(and still though a cat 3 hurricane will be damaging...but there cant be alot left to damage after Katrina and then rita went through?

[jamie]

Hmm isnt that new sat image you have Phillip of the east coast, it looks like it to me with FL at the bottom and the lakes at the top? I cant make sence of it. How can west be to the right of north?

Im heading to the snow so cant watch this make landfall dang it.

[Manukau heads obs]

latest bouy readings:

Wind direction (W Dir): East (85 - 94 Degrees)
Wind Speed (W Spd): 71.0 kts (81.7 mph / 131.5 km/h)
Wind Gust (W Spd): 91.0 kts (104.7 mph / 168.5 km/h)
Atmospheric Pressure (AP): 28.95 in / 980 hPa

Hmm isnt that new sat image you have Phillip of the east coast

yes, the weather-watch web site has some old sat image of a hurricane on the atlantic seaboard, off the Carolinas.....not Gustov and not even the gulf of mexico.....ideally you would want to fix that Phillip

[NZstorm]

that bouy link is interesting Brian,

Katrina hit the coast in a rapidly weakening state, it was no more than a cat3 at landfall and just side swiped New Orleans.

[NZstorm]

No wind measurement on latest New Orleans Airport metar!

[gllitz]

I have to agree with Brian on this one, Phillip! Naughty, naughty for putting up a pic like that of the East coast of the States... Surely you can get even just a "Print Scr" snapshot from a sat photo? The one from TWC is just fine, really...

Anyway, still a pretty impressive storm, by all accounts...still a CAT 3 storm, 115 mph (185 km/h) SUSTAINED winds...one would definitely not be able to stand in that! (not that you'd want to, anyway...)...meep 8o

[Philip Duncan]

My apologies all - the image was from NASA titled "Gustav"...I thought it didn't look quite right but you tend to trust a NASA image (they have a VERY confusing site for getting images from). My apologies for that - has been replaced.

[Inny Binny]

I don't think it was overhyped - it was very close to hitting Cat 5 before it weakened over land...and then it continued to weaken across the water a bit for a while.

There was every chance that it could have developed into a Cat 5 over the Gulf...models were certainly suggesting at the possibility (and a rather high one) beforehand.

[Philip Duncan]

I agree with Inny - it moved much faster than expected so didn't have the chance to 'soak up' the energy from the Gulf. However I wonder if the mayor of NOLA perhaps was a bit sensational - and that may bite the next time. Better safe than sorry I guess.

[Inny Binny]

Yes, I think him inciting fear into the public might have been a little bit much...creating panic isn't the first thing you want to do in a hurricane.

[Manukau heads obs]

Grand isle, on the coast, south of NO, near to where it came ashore (it might have been still west of there), only got to gusts to 65 knots and 977hpa baro
new orleans itself, because it moved west of it, only got to 55 knot gusts and 990 baro or so

our winter lows were as bad as that

as I said, good thing that Cuba weakended it alot!

[gllitz]

Well, Gustav was not as bad (?) as anticipated, but that's a good thing!

And now there's Hannah, Ike, and Josephine ...although the latter looks as though it may stay out to sea and not affect too many people...Of the former two, Hannah looks to affect the SE coast of the States in the next few days and Ike is still a ways out, but looks to be getting stronger and stronger by day 5...it's been busy, this year, with still another month or so to go in the NA/GoM hurricane season!

[Vertigo]

ah, hello josephine! i saw it forming at a strong tropical wave a few days ago, good to see its organised a bit better now.


also, dont forget about ike! set to follow in hannas wake, as is josephine, assuming they both hold together

[NZstorm]

I wonder what the return period is for a Katrina type event in USA. I'm guessing every 10 years maybe. The chance of storm chasers intercepting a decent hurricane with a proper eye is possibly quite low. Gustav never looked great while it was in the Gulf of Mexico. It should have intensified quickly over the warm sea but other factors weren't right as previously mentioned. (shear, dry air incursion).