TC Ivy

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 26/02/2004 10:07

Average winds near Ivys center are now 90 Knots and expected to increase to 100 knots today.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 26/02/2004 12:55

Latest ECMWF suggests severe weather for the North Island on Sunday from the remains off Ivy.

Manukau heads obs · Thu 26/02/2004 13:16

how do you get the latest?
its not normaly updated until 4:30pm
??
adn nogaps, i see they are on a secure server now, so no acces..?

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 26/02/2004 16:52

Brian, I'm just looking at the ECMWF forecast charts which renew around the middle of the day.
When I looked at 12.30 pm they had a very deep low over Auckland for Sunday but now I notice this has changed and they have the deep low out to the east of the North Island on Sunday.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Thu 26/02/2004 17:25

Yes, looks like the models are having remains of Ivy moving down just east of the North Island.

I'm picking the upper air will turn unstable over the north and west of the country by about Saturday, so the odd thunderstorm about with the rain. Also very humid conditions by Saturday with dewpoints rising to 21/22C in the north. Its gonna get muggy.

Manukau heads obs · Thu 26/02/2004 17:29

still early days
the models have been very different each day
its still going SSW from what i can
the longer it goes that way, the more likely it will be more direct hit

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Thu 26/02/2004 17:36

These low pressure systems are very unpredictable, but latest forecasts seem to suggest a better weekend for Canterbury - still some rain, but clearing on Saturday (Blues Skies) or Sunday (MetService). Looks like the northeast of the NI should get the worst from Ivy, but northern and western areas look likely to get an earlier hammering from the trough coming in from the Tasman on Saturday.

Manukau heads obs · Thu 26/02/2004 18:47

the low in the western tasman is looking quite impressive at the moment, but its not moving much, just expanding/getting bigger

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Thu 26/02/2004 19:04

We attract the bad weather like a magnet here

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Thu 26/02/2004 21:21

If the low is going to move over the east coast of the North Island,wouldnt that bring a rainy easterly to Canterbury??.

Manukau heads obs · Fri 27/02/2004 08:37

well, some modela have got the low in the tasman wrong,i.e its not moving se quickly like theythought,i said yersterday the low in tasman was not moving much, just getting bigger, going by the sat animation
is now moving slowly east
i cant see how its supposed to sudenly cross the SI by tomorrow
also, the cloud sheet from Ivy is now at the top of the met serive sat pic, and its moving south quite fast now, so its look the 2 lows are going to come closer to together than some models have suggested, and they might start dancing!
batten down the hatches!

see:
http://www.weather-display.com/windy/moviegms.htm

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Fri 27/02/2004 11:44

Just out of interest, here's Ivy on the 25th (Wednesday)

Hope it doens't take to long to load

Manukau heads obs · Fri 27/02/2004 14:40

we should start a bet of where it ends up
met service are thinking east cape
i think closer than that, i think a direct hit

Ratrover · Unread post by **Ratrover** » Fri 27/02/2004 14:50

Yes - i am in - How much to start a wager??
Have noticed anything that starts in Vanuatu vicinity usually tracks towards us. Wait and see. Have just done some excavations, organised two years ago- Murphys law says it'll pack up on me!!

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Fri 27/02/2004 16:03

I think the High east of NewZealand needs to stay put so as to direct Ivy our way but with a falling Barometer and that rain in the Tasman moving onto us it looks to me like Ivy will end up east of us .

With the low center east of Auckland the Coromandel offers Auckland City some protection from the worst of the weather if Ivy dose come close.

Ratrover your excavations are likely to fill with water, double in size and you will spend most of next week shifting mud.

I've been there before.

Ratrover · Unread post by **Ratrover** » Fri 27/02/2004 16:07

Cool- yeah i got temporary insurace out just in case something bad happens, scary what happened last week down south!!

Manukau heads obs · Fri 27/02/2004 16:39

the tasman low:
a new low is forming on the detached front, and that is quickly moving SE now
TC:
from what i can see, its moving more S than SSE
its on track...

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Fri 27/02/2004 16:59

TC is moving South- SouthEast but as it comes down out of the Tropics it will want to go South East. As the High to the East of NZ moves away it will be able to do this bringing it down out to the East of us. My thoughts anyway but I hope your right Brian.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Fri 27/02/2004 17:36

If the low is going to move over the east coast of the North Island,wouldnt that bring a rainy easterly to Canterbury??.

I think a low over the north of the South Island is much more likely to bring a rainy easterly to Canterbury. A low to the east of the NI should mean a southerly over Canterbury or a ridge of high pressure. So it could either be showery or fine.

A halo around the sun over Chch earlier today - sign of rain to come? The halo disappeared this afternoon, as the high cloud thickened.

Ratrover · Unread post by **Ratrover** » Fri 27/02/2004 17:49

pouring up here now. waiting for some action I hope.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Fri 27/02/2004 17:56

I heard Augie Auer on the radio this afternoon, talking down the propescts of the cyclone affecting NZ.

Must be a warm front (as well as NZ) buried in that cloud somewhere. By tomorrow should be turning very humid.

Manukau heads obs · Fri 27/02/2004 18:41

AT 48HRS VALID AT 290000UTC NEAR 33.2S 173.6E MOV SSE 20KT WITH 60KT CLOSE TO CENTRE..

latest from fiji
that puts it not that far north of the bay of islands in 48 hours from now !

Manukau heads obs · Fri 27/02/2004 19:52

looking at the sat image animation, the cloud sheet from ivy is pushing south quickly
and i think its going to activate the front just west of the upper NI and there is going to be LOTS of rain!

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Fri 27/02/2004 21:27

[quote="NZstorm"]I heard Augie Auer on the radio this afternoon, talking down the propescts of the cyclone affecting NZ.
quote]

Is he back on radio?
If so when and what time????

JohnGaul
NZTS

Manukau heads obs · Fri 27/02/2004 21:32

heavy rain warnings now issued:
BAY OF PLENTY AND COROMANDEL PENINSULA
In the 24 hours from 6pm Saturday to 6pm Sunday, 120 to 150mm of rain
is likely in the ranges and up to 100mm elsewhere. However, about
the eastern ranges of Bay of Plenty, a further 100mm is possible in
the 6 hours from 6pm to midnight Sunday. Heaviest falls of 30mm per
hour are possible.

AUCKLAND
In the 18 hours from 3pm Saturday to 9am Sunday, 80 to 100mm is
likely about the Hunua and Waitakare Ranges and 60 to 80mm is
possible elsewhere.

NORTHLAND
In the 18 hours from 3pm Saturday to 9am Sunday, 100 to 150mm of rain
is likely.Peak intensities of 25 to 35mm per hour are possible
overnight Saturday.

GISBORNE NORTH OF TOLAGA BAY
In 24 hours from 3am Sunday to 3am Monday, 180mm of rain is possible
in the ranges and up to 100mm elsewhere.