NZ Weather Forum

the models are having a real hard time deciding what is going to happen
GFS back to looking like good rain again from the low from the NW

Perhaps theyre april fooling us

Manukau heads observer wrote:the models are having a real hard time deciding what is going to happen
GFS back to looking like good rain again from the low from the NW

Could this be the beginning of the end of the Big Dry?
Although the GFS has been inconsistent on this scenario so I'm not convinced yet

David wrote:Could this be the beginning of the end of the Big Dry?

Shh, don't jinx it!

the models still cant decide and keep putting back the day its gonna rain....
2004 was 14mm here, this march as 18mm here...more than the airport....

Thanks Brian. I recorded 11.4mm for March, 8.5mm for Feb and 45.0mm for Jan (total 64.9mm).
Be interesting to compare what other members recorded in the last months (and not just for Akld).

I suspect there may be more rainfall records broken in March than in Feb.
Here's a few 'official' rainfall totals from around Akld...
Interesting to see Ardmore apparently recording 32mm for Feb, with 22mm of that falling in the 24 hrs to 9am on the 26th.

Also worth noting that for March, more central Khyber Pass (near Akld Grammar) recorded 22mm, with 17mm of that falling in the 24 hrs to 9am on the 25th.

Thanks for posting the comparisons Nev

Adjusting to the 9am-9am times, my totals for Howick were:
Jan 64.6mm
Feb 21.0mm
Mar 17.8mm

Its raining here now,hearing it on the roof........

Please let it rain in the far North where they really need it.

Latest run of the gfs has some unstable air crossing Northland/Auckland overnight Monday into Tuesday associated with a shallow low. Forecast LI's of down to -4 suggest thunder could be on the cards as well. I don't think they'll be a lot of rain but Isolated heavy falls look possible.

NZstorm wrote:Latest run of the gfs has some unstable air crossing Northland/Auckland overnight Monday into Tuesday associated with a shallow low. Forecast LI's of down to -4 suggest thunder could be on the cards as well. I don't think they'll be a lot of rain but Isolated heavy falls look possible.

Did everywhere have the showers overnight (auckland) the leaves have drops etc but looked as it lasted only a couple of hours.

Yes, a couple of brief shower here. Good to see the dewpoints have come up, hopefully we catch some good showers here in Auckland over the next day or two.
Currently 20C, dp 17C

tgsnoopy wrote:Please let it rain in the far North where they really need it.

We had a few mm in Kerikeri overnight, don't know about further north where they really need it.

is that low to the NE moving SSW ?
if could keep doing that...might get a bit of rain from it..maybe more east cape way

Yes. It looks like it plus that one in the Tasman Sea moving over there to join it.
Shame the lows are not moving over NZ to produce some interesting weather rather than this uninteresting stuff we're getting at the moment.

JohnGaul
NZThS

Drove through a heavy shower near the Airport this evening, rain for a few South Auckland gardens

spwill wrote:Drove through a heavy shower near the Airport this evening, rain for a few South Auckland gardens

Yea it was good shower, I drove through it too
If the convection wasnt so shallow it might of let out a clap

Yes, I noticed the line of t/cu yesterday, NE versus SW breeze.

The front moving onto Northland today is looking a bit weak still. The question is, can a thunderstorm fire up on it today? If it was summer I would say yes, but April, not so sure.

The upper air is colder tomorrow and the gfs is pointing to a thunderstorm risk over the Bay of Plenty/Waikato.

We had a couple of mm I guessing last night from the showers spwill drove through at about 6pm.

Area's in the FN moreso places on the eastcoast do need rain - the rains are coming - we know this.

can just about smell the rain now...not far away now

Good solid rain on the roof here in Henderson

Funny "tapping sound" on the roof tonight,havent heard it a while...

Only 0.4mm in total from the light period of drizzle this morning so no relief.