Tropical Cyclone Carlos - Darwin

[Willoughby]

Carlos had enough of Darwin and ran away this morning to now be located east of Adelaide River!

Down graded.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 15
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 8:00 am CST [6:30 am WST] Thursday 17 February 2011

The Cyclone Warning between Port Keats to Oenpelli, including Darwin, Batchelor,
Adelaide River and the Tiwi Islands, has been CANCELLED.

A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal areas from Daly River Mouth in the
Northern Territory to Kalumburu in Western Australia.

At 6:30 am CST [5:00 am WST] Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos was estimated to be over
land
95 kilometres southeast of Darwin and 40 kilometres east of Batchelor and
moving south southeast at 11 kilometres per hour further inland.

The cyclone has weakened into a tropical low and winds near the centre have
moderated below gale force. It is expected to move towards the south or
southwest and may move into the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf late on Friday or early
Saturday.

GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales
could develop later.

[looselipslou]

Camera problems (again, this time with new camera) so can't get photos up

You seem to have the worst luck!

Bugger his luck LOL! I've been stuck in Sydney, since leaving beautiful NZ, flight canceled on Wednesday and thankfully, we'll be heading back to Darwin tomorrow!

First time I ever got flight cancellation insurance too, must have been like washing the car to get rain eh?

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Heavy bands of rain and squally showers seem to be becoming more frequent in Darwin looking at the radar there now. Last 24 hours has been a let off from what was forecasted with 32mm so far. However, still as much as 200mm possible in some nearby regions over the next couple of days. Interesting times ahead still!

[tgsnoopy]

Interesting, just what is Carlo's up to?

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml

http://www.northauschasers.com/forum/do ... &mode=view

[tgsnoopy]

Carlos now forecast to head out over water and reform back into a tropical cyclone.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 28
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 am CST [3:30 am WST] Sunday 20 February 2011

A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from
Kalumburu to Bidyadanga, including Derby and Broome.

At 3:30 am CST [2:00 am WST] Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos was over land and
estimated to be 90 kilometres west of Wyndham and 160 kilometres south southeast
of Kalumburu and moving west southwest at 12 kilometres per hour.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos is expected to continue moving west across the north
Kimberley region and reform into a cyclone off the West Kimberley coast during
Monday morning.

GALES are not expected in coastal areas in the next 24 hours, but may develop
between Kalumburu and Bidyadanga during Monday morning.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises with possible localised
flooding for parts of the Kimberley region in Western Australia.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near the communities between Kalumburu and Bidyadanga,
including Mitchell Plateau, Kuri Bay, Koolan Island, Cockatoo Island, Cape
Leveque, Derby and Broome should commence taking precautions. For further
information contact the WA State Emergency Services [SES].

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos at 3:30 am CST:
.Centre located near...... 15.6 degrees South 127.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 12 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued from Perth TCWC by 11:00 am CST Sunday 20
February [9:30 am WST Sunday 20 February].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Latest radar shows it tracking more NorthWest than anticipated. I'm guessing it may gain more strength, quicker than they anticipate.

[Nev]

Yep, Ex-TC Carlos finally moving off land and today should begin regeneration into a powerful TC...

IDW27700
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1312 UTC 20/02/2011
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 16.4S
Longitude: 124.5E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [253 deg]
Speed of Movement: 10 knots [19 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 994 hPa

REMARKS:
The tropical low continues to move in a west-southwest direction across the
north Kimberley region.

Although shear has increased to over 20 knots the increase appears to be largely
in the higher levels and the circulation appears to still be vertically stacked
in the low levels. The forecast track persists steadily to the west southwest
under the influence of a middle-level ridge to the southeast. Model guidance
indicates relatively high confidence in the consensus track due to low spread.

The current forecast indicates TC development during Monday as the system moves
off the west Kimberley coast then a gradual intensification off the Pilbara
coast. Despite high ocean heat content, moderate easterly shear may slow the
rate somewhat, although Category 3 intensity is possible by Wednesday morning,
by which stage the system will be in the Exmouth region. Should the system be
close to the coast at that stage, it may present a significant storm surge
threat. Since tides are close to HAT in this region during the next few days the
shelf wave is likely to cause tides to rise above the high water mark regardless
of whether the cyclone directly causes a storm surge on the coast.

[Manukau heads obs]

video of tornado in cyclone
http://www.meteosottoceneri.ch/index.ph ... &Itemid=56