Thunderstorms- NI- 12th -13th November

[Manukau heads obs]

6am
skies clear here on the west coast this morning, but can see a cloud layer in land
light easterly here at the moment
so that means a sea breeze convergence will start here on the west coast, then move inland
I can see towering clouds and old cb's out in the tasman, as the cut off low approaches

the cloud layer over the waikato this morning might be a good thing, and then rain band last night might be a good thing too...i.e lots of surface moisture but like a cap...that will burn off late morning...
yes?

[Nev]

Nice funnel-clouds pic on TVNZ last night.
Taken in Ngatea, North Waikato (just south of the Firth of Thames) yesterday arvo…
.

[Manukau heads obs]

nice ....most likely would have been a northerly wind down through the firth of thames
to create the wind shear

[NZstorm]

Thanks for the pic Neville.

The only weakness with todays set up is the lack of shear. While storms end up slow moving individual cells don't hold up long in these situations.

Maybe a landspout again today given the very steep lapse rates!

[spwill]

Nice funnel-clouds pic on TVNZ last night.
Taken in Ngatea, North Waikato (just south of the Firth of Thames) yesterday arvo…
.

Thanks Nev, good to see that photo. Given the particularly cold upper air today there could be more waterspouts where convergence lines run across warm waters.

A fine start here, 11C, dewpoint 10C

[jamie]

Sunny skies here

[jamie]

Metservice outlook thismorning is no change from last night.

[Manukau heads obs]

In Waiuku,school sports day,but i can get
Away from here lunchtime or whenever to meet
Up Bombay hills

[Tornado Tim]

Partly to mostly cloudy atm, probably the residue leftover from last nights showers.

Should burn away fairly easily...

Waikato usually gets a NE to E Sea Breeze, any convergence line should actually move west.
If I was heading from Auckland, North Waikato looks quite good just after lunch, head further inland as the afternoon progresses.
Keep west of the line and let it come to you

[Orion]

Happy hunting!

[spwill]

Not sure of my movements yet.

Some towering Cu around now, these clouds over the Gulf.

[jamie]

Auckland people feel free to stop in at my place for a retarget. 027 6359444 just txt to make sure I'm not already in the road.

[Manukau heads obs]

Lots of cu around now
Is slowing the the heating...so sea breeze Will be
Late maybe
Cool about your place for headquarters

[Tornado Tim]

Severe Risk has extended more west in the latest outlook....

Widespread showers are forecast as a deep pool of cold air moves slowly east across the North Island today. There is a high risk that afternoon heating will produce thunderstorms where sea-breezes converge from about Taupo northwards.The thunderstorms that form may have hail 10 to 15mm in diameter and rainfall rates approaching 25mm per hour. Over western Bay of Plenty, southern Waikato,eastern Waitomo, Taumarunui and northern Taupo there is a moderate risk that some of these thunderstorms will become severe with rainfall rates 40mm/hr and hail 20mm because of very slow storm motion.

There is also a low risk afternoon heating may produce isolated thunderstorms over the ranges of Nelson, Buller and Marlborough, and also central Otago and inland Southland.

Elsewhere, no risk of thunderstorms or significant convection.

[jamie]

Yea I saw that. I might end up starting in Cambridge.

I see thunderstorm watch already out for a triangle between rotorua Hamilton and taupo.

[NZstorm]

Alot of t/cu here with small glaciated cb already appearing over the Waitakeri ranges. I think Auckland is a good target area today.

[Tornado Tim]

Severe Tstorm Watch Issued for Waikato....

Issued by MetService at 10:30 am Tuesday 13 November 2012
Valid until 08:30 pm Tuesday 13 November 2012
This watch affects people in the following weather forecast districts:
Waikato
Waitomo
Taumarunui
Bay of Plenty
Rotorua
Taupo

Slow-moving thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and there is a moderate risk some thunderstorms may have flooding rainfall of 25 to 40mm per hour and large hail around 20mm in diameter.

Issued by: Erick Brenstrum

This watch will be updated by: 04:30 pm Tuesday 13 November 2012

I think Auckland is a good target area today.

For a standard storm yes, but Waikato looks better for storms with larger hail and will be easier to chase.

[jamie]

Itereating you guys have tcu up there. We are completely clouded over here now.

[NZstorm]

Itereating you guys have tcu up there. We are completely clouded over here now.

Reasonably fine here with high topped t/cu and heavy showers developing.

[spwill]

A few small showers have developed over the Ak area., 17C dp 12C

[Manukau heads obs]

Sea breeze started on the west coast
Looking primmed here for early storms in franklin
Area

[Manukau heads obs]

Ps call me when u guys head to bombay,25 minutes
From here in Waiuku

[Tornado Tim]

Starting to get some clearance here, finally......

[spwill]

Ps call me when u guys head to bombay,25 minutes
From here in Waiuku

I think NZstorm wants to stay in Auckland, I will keep a watch on Waikato from here for now.

Lovely day here, 19C, sunny, T Cu around.

[Manukau heads obs]

Showrs developed to SE of me
Not strong looking
Cb,s out to few have fizzled as sea breeze devolops
I can meet up in auckland from here too
Sea breeze here in Waiuku now