NZ Weather Forum

jamesrobert wrote:Panic stories in the media: "droughts will become the new norm". Heard these predictions many times over the years, then next year we'll have floods. The stories will then be "floods will be the new norm"
Tiresome.

Try reading the Australian climate reports. The two are not mutually exclusive. This elementary point seems to be lost on many. Tiresome.

Yet the last two Summers were very wet here. It was "Oh, the Summers are not like we used to have!"
Wonder how they will remember this year.

Every day at work i hear of heart breaking stories. This drought has gone beyond difficult and is now just a very very sad situation for many people, their livelyhood and their stock.

The outlook looks very bleak. Im picking 10mm of rain this weekend for here, then back to a high moving in which takes us to the end of the month. We could be in April with just 38mm of rain for the entire year. Average would be more like 290mm i think.

Worst NZ wide drought in history?.... im beginning to think very much so.

jamie wrote:
Worst NZ wide drought in history?.... im beginning to think very much so.

Based on the dollar value? I am tending to think so.

tbh I don't think its to bad in Canterbury. Arable farming are doing pretty well, and we have pretty extensive irrigation to cover the diary. Although they do have restrictions on them atm. As we head deeper into autumn we are getting heavier dews which will carry us thru. Plus the rain this weekend and early next week will be a big bonus.

Amazing to see by this photo taken yesterday of just how dry the NI is

Whole North Island now officially in drought!

Some figures for future reference. Grim reading!!!!

30 days 0.0mm
39 days 1.2mm
56 days 14.6mm
74 days (2013 to date) 28.2mm

What are other peoples figures?

No rain for 30 days straight Jamie!? Wow - my record is 16 consecutive days.

Waikato river could reach levels not seen since 1940's if decent rainfall doesn't occur by the end of April according to an article in the Waikato times.

The river level in Hamilton is nearing the lowest since records began in 1975.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/waikato-times/ne ... ers-supply

the 1940's date is in reference to when the taupo control gates were installed at the start of the waikato river
before that it was natural flow rate (i.e lower in dry periods, higher in wet periods,than now)

Havelock North YTD now 32mm, last 30 days 11mm.

jamesrobert wrote:Havelock North YTD now 32mm, last 30 days 11mm.

Thats nasty! I heard of a farmer not far up the Napier-Taihape road (a few km's from the start at the Naiper end) that got nearly 100mm.

I got sent some photos of my inlaws Taihape farm and boy is that brown. Loosing its golden colour now and turning dirt brown.

Our 30 day total looks great with 22.2mm but YTD is shocking on 50.4. I just jumped on NIWA and got the Horshamdowns long term average and its 239mm to the first of April. We will be 50.4 at the first of April as i cant see any rain before then. That puts us at a deficit of 189mm for the year

just for future reference

I like the second graph Jamie. Found it in Weather Display but my total for last year doesn't match up (possibly due to the calibrations I made). Might make an interactive version on my website instead just for fun!

David wrote:I like the second graph Jamie. Found it in Weather Display but my total for last year doesn't match up (possibly due to the calibrations I made). Might make an interactive version on my website instead just for fun!

Here's an initial page (might change a bit): http://howickweather.info/rainCompare.php. Hover over the graph for tooltips.

From my home page, this feature can be accessed through my historical page by clicking the "Historical" menu item.

awesome David. This year so far is similar to your 2010 year. I wish WD could do this for me rather than just last years

jamie wrote:awesome David. This year so far is similar to your 2010 year. I wish WD could do this for me rather than just last years

The pattern is certainly similar to 2010... but this year has only had 49mm so far, compared to 115mm at this point in 2010. I hope we get a very wet winter to compensate

Taihape area is still yet to get any rain this year. Poor farmers are cutting down trees to feed their capital stock in a desperate bid to not have to slaughter more than they already have for a pathetic ammount. Poor guys just need some rain. Hopefully this rain in the forecast eventuates. They are already getting frosts so it might already be too late.

jamie wrote:Taihape area is still yet to get any rain this year. Poor farmers are cutting down trees to feed their capital stock in a desperate bid to not have to slaughter more than they already have for a pathetic ammount. Poor guys just need some rain. Hopefully this rain in the forecast eventuates. They are already getting frosts so it might already be too late.

One station in NIWA report shows 40mm Jan, 28mm Feb - don't have March data yet. In 1978 the Jan-March period had only 67mm.

Havelock North YTD now 91mm, April 59mm. (30mm in one hour Tuesday afternoon!)

RWood wrote:One station in NIWA report shows 40mm Jan, 28mm Feb - don't have March data yet. In 1978 the Jan-March period had only 67mm.

Do you know where that station is? Im suprised to hear such high totals when the figures ive heard from farmers in the Taihape region have had much less.

jamie wrote:

RWood wrote:One station in NIWA report shows 40mm Jan, 28mm Feb - don't have March data yet. In 1978 the Jan-March period had only 67mm.

Do you know where that station is? Im suprised to hear such high totals when the figures ive heard from farmers in the Taihape region have had much less.

I would only believe the ones with rain gauges anyway. Looking at what happened to soils here despite above normal totals YTD it's easy to think that much less fell when there were long periods between significant falls.

The station is called "Taihape Rec".

NIWA's Taihape WS is near the SE fringe of the township. Note though that most of that 28mm fell around the beginning of Feb (2 other gauges about 10 km away, one to the S and one to the NE, recorded about 3 times that). However, going by this PWS a couple of km NE of the township, they've barley had any rain since.

Nev wrote:NIWA's Taihape WS is near the SE fringe of the township. Note though that most of that 28mm fell around the beginning of Feb (2 other gauges about 10 km away, one to the S and one to the NE, recorded about 3 times that). However, going by this PWS a couple of km NE of the township, they've barley had any rain since.

Which underlines the reality that for farming purposes the distribution/frequency of the rain events is important.
On the other hand, it's quite silly that Wellington got into so much trouble despite a decent overall YTD value. Water conservation practices need to be improved. There should be another storage dam in the Te Marua area - we were down to 1 of 2 because one was being earthquake strengthened.

Kelburn has had about 8mm since the 17-18 March event (66mm or so then).

Yes that rainfall in Jan from memory was a heat shower. It got the town but not a lot of other places.

in those hills the distribution of rainfall can be so variable. More stations in the region would be nice.