Polar Blast 19th to 21st June - Reports/Discussion

[matttbs]

Currently 6.5deg and 15mm of rain since this morning. Temp slowly on the decline

[Classicford]

Starting to settle quite nicely on that webcam.

[Talbotm]

Heres an interesting link i found. A darfield Forecast not sure how true but the total numbers could be interesting it has for 35mm tommorrow but if that turns to snow which it should there will be a good dump.

http://www.darfield-weather.co.nz/wxforecast.php

[shovelopikis]

Moderate rain falling steadily in hanmer over last 2 hours, getting colder here. Stores out of bread and other supplies.A

[Bradley]

Very inaccurate that site talbot for a forecast, i remember last year with metservice forecasting 9c for a max it was going for 19C for a max (it ened up with 8c max). I don't know why that fella uses weather underground for his forecast..

[Talbotm]

Yea i was just looking more at the moisture levels to be honest bradley. If you go by the totals of moisture he is talking for the whole event its looking around 66mms of moisture which is around 66cms snow for Darfield. Thats a good dump of snow if you ask me.

[sw_windbow]

6.7 degrees now and 7mm, 4mm of which was a short sharp dump at 4am.

Metservice have another much bigger short sharp dump in store for Dunedin this evening. 1 inch of rain in four hours, beginning from about 8pm. And about 35mm over 10 hours. After 150mm in the hills over the last few days this much rain in this little time could cause a lot more land slips and get the Leith raging. I predict the Leith will peak at 50 cumecs at 1.30am. This rain mass rolls up the East Coast and hits Chch at about 6am tomorrow, then lingers there. I think the flood potential for Inland/North Canterbury/Kaikoura must be massive.

[tidd66]

3.5 deg here in Gore with steady rain, down from a high of 6 deg. We normally miss out if Canterbury gets it.

[Orion]

Steady light to moderate rain in Ashburton, and in Mayfield to which I've just returned.
Felt sorry for few-weeks'-shorn sheep standing in muddy, rather bare paddocks...
4.9 degrees here now; barometer has dropped from 994.7 hPa at 9am to 990.4 hPa now.
Gentle to moderate breeze from south.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

CHCH being sheltered to just light spotty rain. Can see it on the radar. 3mm today. Paddocks in flood still up the road with very little visible grass and knee deep water in some areas.

[mikestormchaser]

Looking like snow from later tomorrow night and through friday, so still looking to get a possible 5 to 15cm is my prediction for the city and surrounding areas close to christchurch.
Will be very interesting to watch tonight and throughout tomorrow.

[TonyT]

One piece of the puzzle is falling into place now, on the satpix you can see the very cold air streaming past Doubtful Sound and swirling into the remains of the depression in the south Tasman Sea. This should ensure re-invigoration of the low and some cyclogenesis, which should help that low and trough strengthen over central districts tomorrow. That in turn is what will generate the heavy precip and strong pressure gradients onto the east coast.

The BOM AccessR model has the low centre down to 975hpa and just off Farewell spit at noon tomorrow. This should look very impressive on the satpix tomorrow.

[einzack]

18mm of rain so far in Reefton today, though none was forecast. not particularly pleased about that.
wind turned SE around 1pm, but fairly gentle, as it always is here.
temp is dropping, but fairly gently at 1°C/hr since 2pm.
no snow forecast here, but we might see some spillover. would expect the lewis pass to be closed for a good few days.

forecast high temps from metservice for next 9 days from tomorrow remain at 6°C every day. think their keyboard got stuck.

[GSVNoFixedAbode]

snow_20130619_1625.jpg

Arrowtown getting a nice dusting now.

[Manukau heads obs]

One piece of the puzzle is falling into place now, on the satpix you can see the very cold air streaming past Doubtful Sound and swirling into the remains of the depression in the south Tasman Sea.

Yes, I saw that too, and thought the same thing (that yup, that is the start of the new deep low)

[Orion]

9mm of rain for the event so far.
I meant to mention earlier, it seemed extraordinarily dark at 4pm.
Temp. down to 4.3 degrees now.

[melja]

Rain here all day and very wet under foot again with only 10mm so who only know what 80mm is going to do.
Maybe Rangiora being 30kms north of chch and higher(60m) and inland will get some snow Tony?

[melja]

Models do seem to be showing the cold air coming in a little more and a bit quicker.

[Ice Maiden]

Well in Dunedin we have had rain most of the day and heavy at times but the temp failed to reach the predicted high of 8C until around 3.30pm when it suddenly shot up to the forecast 8C from 6C where it had hovered all day. Within the hour though it has dropped significantly now at 5.4C and looking quite murky again to the South

[Avalanche]

One piece of the puzzle is falling into place now, on the satpix you can see the very cold air streaming past Doubtful Sound and swirling into the remains of the depression in the south Tasman Sea. This should ensure re-invigoration of the low and some cyclogenesis, which should help that low and trough strengthen over central districts tomorrow. That in turn is what will generate the heavy precip and strong pressure gradients onto the east coast.

The BOM AccessR model has the low centre down to 975hpa and just off Farewell spit at noon tomorrow. This should look very impressive on the satpix tomorrow.

Hi Tony T, When you get that satpix can you post the picture here, im keeping a weather map and picture record of this event for future reference thanks

[TonyT]

I suggest you watch the weatherzone sat images, and also check out the Modis New Zealand pages tomorrow.
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/subs ... NewZealand

[wembley]

Here in Central it is raining lightly with snow down on the hills. Cromwell may escape the worst of it

[Avalanche]

With this map in mind as its just like Aug 2011. I can see no reason why it wouldnt be snowing to sea level in the south (CHCH) especially as the colder surges of air start arriving. Does sea temp really make a different? Also a 528 thickness? either way its got a Antarctic air feed and thats gotta count surely. So snow to sea level or near sea level is possible i would have thought.

[NZstorm]

One piece of the puzzle is falling into place now, on the satpix you can see the very cold air streaming past Doubtful Sound and swirling into the remains of the depression in the south Tasman Sea. This should ensure re-invigoration of the low and some cyclogenesis

The polar jet streak coming up from the south is 90kts at 500mb according to gfs!

[mikestormchaser]

what does that mean for us nzstorm?? does the jet have a big say in snow aswel?