Tropical Cyclone Dylan - Coral Sea / Queensland

[Nev]

Yes, although that could just be the mid-level convection rather than the LLCC itself…? Strongest winds and rainfall in the SE quadrant.

This arvo's JTWC remarks…

WTPS31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 17.6S 148.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
…

REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 148.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH ENHANCED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING PERSISTING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 292201Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
ADDITIONAL FRAGMENTED BANDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AS WELL
AS A WELL DEFINED CUSP FEATURE INDICATING THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AS WELL AS EXTRAPOLATED FROM
THE SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS
BASED ON THE CONSOLIDATED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS A
292259Z ASCAT PASS INDICATING A MIXTURE OF 40 TO 45 KNOT WIND
BARBS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
TC 11P IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SUBSEQUENTLY
DISSIPATE OVERLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50
KNOTS IS FORECAST BY TAU 12, JUST PRIOR TO THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW
BECOMING DISRUPTED BY LAND INTERACTION. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN. THUS, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 301500Z AND 310300Z.
//
NNNN

[Nev]

TC Dylan has been named...

IDQ20023
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 15
Issued at 1:49 pm EST on Thursday 30 January 2014

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from
Cardwell to St Lawrence extending to adjacent inland areas, including
Collinsville..

At 1:00 pm EST Tropical Cyclone Dylan, Category 1 was estimated to be 235
kilometres northeast of Townsville and 290 kilometres north of Proserpine and
moving west southwest at 14 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Dylan has formed off the north Queensland coast and is
expected to continue moving in a general southwesterly direction and gradually
intensifying, before crossing the Queensland coast between Lucinda and
Proserpine in the early hours of Friday morning.

The cyclone and a strong ridge of high pressure further south are combining to
generate GALES at times along much of the east coast between Cardwell and St
Lawrence. Winds are expected to increase further between Lucinda and St
Lawrence, particularly about the Central Coast and Whitsundays district, during
the remainder of today and extending to adjacent inland areas on Friday morning
with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 kilometres per hour possible.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop about
coastal and adjacent inland areas of the Herbert and Lower Burdekin and the
Central Coast and Whitsundays districts during today.

Coastal residents between Lucinda and St Lawrence, including Townsville are
specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide, particularly on the high tide
today and on Friday. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well
above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas
close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this
flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and
be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised
to do so by the authorities.

A storm tide is expected between Cardwell and Lucinda, particularly on the high
tide on Thursday and Friday. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the
foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should
take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to
help their neighbours.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for remaining coastal and island
communities from Cooktown to Cardwell and from St Lawrence to Gladstone.

People between Cardwell and Mackay should take precautions and listen to the
next advice at 5pm.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website (http://www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on
132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage).

Details of Tropical Cyclone Dylan at 1:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 17.8 degrees South 148.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 14 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 95 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 987 hectoPascals


The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm EST Thursday 30 January.
...

[Nev]

BoM have Dylan crossing around Ayr as a Cat 2 tomorrow morn…

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0738 UTC 30/01/2014
Name: Tropical Cyclone Dylan
Identifier: 07U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 18.1S
Longitude: 148.3E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [224 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Central Pressure: 980 hPa
…
REMARKS:
The system is continuing to transition from a monsoon depression into a more
classical tropical cyclone structure, with convecting banding continuing to
develop and tighten on the western and southern flanks. Surface observations and
scatterometry show strong gales wrapping considerably around the system.
Convection has developed on the southwest flank near the centre during the past
three hours with curvature increasing at -0.7 wrap resulting in Dvorak analysis
of 3.0

Vertical wind shear remains weak with strong outflow to the south associated
with a jet from an upper level trough situated across the central Coral Sea. the
environment appears conjucive to further intensification up until landfall.

the main steering influence should remain the sub-tropical ridge to the system,
and this should maintain a general southwest track over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Persistent strong to gale force southeasterly trade winds are causing a positive
anomaly of around 0.5 metres on top of the predicted tides along parts of the
Queensland east coast between around Cooktown to St Lawrence. This positive
anomaly along with the potential increase as the system approaches land will
lead to tides exceeding the Highest Astronomical Tide of the year along these
parts of the coast on Thursday and Friday particularly on the high tide.

[Nev]

Dylan already at Cat 2…

IDQ20023
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Cardwell and St Lawrence and
adjacent inland areas are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning
Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 17
Issued at 8:08 pm EST on Thursday 30 January 2014

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from
Cardwell to St Lawrence extending to adjacent inland areas, including
Collinsville..

At 7:00 pm EST Tropical Cyclone Dylan, Category 2 was estimated to be 185
kilometres east northeast of Townsville and 225 kilometres north of Proserpine
and moving south southwest at 12 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Dylan is expected to continue moving towards the coast
crossing between Townsville and Bowen on Friday morning.

The cyclone and a strong ridge of high pressure further south are combining to
generate GALES at times along much of the east coast between Cardwell and St
Lawrence. Winds are expected to increase further between Lucinda and St
Lawrence overnight and extending to adjacent inland areas later Friday morning.
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 150 kilometres per hour are possible near the centre.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected about coastal and
adjacent inland areas of the Herbert and Lower Burdekin and the Central Coast
and Whitsundays districts.

Coastal residents between Lucinda and St Lawrence, including Townsville are
specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide, particularly on the high tide
on Friday. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the
normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to
the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding
should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be
prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to
do so by the authorities.

A storm tide is expected between Cardwell and Lucinda, particularly on the high
tide on Friday. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore.
People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take
measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help
their neighbours.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for remaining coastal and island
communities from Cooktown to Cardwell and from St Lawrence to Gladstone,
extending inland to the northern Central Highlands and eastern parts of the
Central West districts on Friday.
…

Details of Tropical Cyclone Dylan at 7:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 18.4 degrees South 148.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 12 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 140 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 975 hectoPascals
...

[Nev]

Dylan has taken a more SSW track overnight and now expected to cross between Bowen and Mackay…

WTPS31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DYLAN) WARNING NR 004//
…
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 147.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DYLAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 178 NM SOUTHEAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ENHANCED DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 301036Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED SYSTEM AND ADDITIONALLY SHOWS
FRAGMENTED BANDING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK THAT HAS ALREADY
STARTED TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR ANIMATION ALONG WITH RADAR IMAGERY FROM
TOWNSVILLE, AUSTRALIA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO
55 KNOTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM FLINDERS REEF, AUSTRALIA, WHICH
SHOWED PERSISTENT 58 KNOT WINDS AS THE SYSTEM PASSED JUST TO THE
SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG
WESTERLY OUTFLOW. TC DYLAN IS EXPECTED TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS AND SUBSEQUENTLY DISSIPATE
OVERLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW BECOMES
DISRUPTED BY THE LAND INTERACTION. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT; THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z.//
NNNN

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1329 UTC 30/01/2014
Name: Tropical Cyclone Dylan
Identifier: 07U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 18.9S
Longitude: 148.2E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [192 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Central Pressure: 975 hPa
…
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Dylan has developed during the day - the max wind estimate of
55 knots based on Flinders Reef observations between 07-10UTC north the of
centre.
There is evidence of some easterly shear with convection largely constrained to
the western flank limiting the extent of curvature. Dvorak estimates remain
lower at -3.0 based on curved band of 0.6 wrap.

Landfall is expected within 12 hours and the system should weaken quickly
thereafter although a convergent band to the south of the centre may cause
severe gusts and heavy rainfall that could extend well inland during the day. A
separate severe weather warning has been issued to that effect.

Astronomical tides are close to the highest yearly tides, thus increasing the
vulnerability to any storm surge. Based on the current track the cyclone should
cross a few hours before the expected high tide but nevertheless inundation
remains an ongoing concern as the southeasterly flow is already causing a
positive anomaly of around 0.5 metres.

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 19
Issued at 2:00 am EST on Friday 31 January 2014

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from
Townsville to St Lawrence, extending to adjacent inland areas including
Collinsville

At 1:00 am EST Tropical Cyclone Dylan, Category 2 was estimated to be 75
kilometres north northeast of Bowen and 185 kilometres east of Townsville and
moving south at 16 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Dylan is now moving on a southerly track and is expected to
cross the coast in the Bowen region this morning between 4 and 7am.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 kilometres per hour are possible between Townsville
and St Lawrence this morning extending to adjacent inland areas later this
morning.
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 140 kilometres per hour are possible for a brief
period in coastal areas
south of the centre as the cyclone makes landfall.

Winds are expected to ease rapidly by the afternoon.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected about coastal and
adjacent inland areas of the Herbert and Lower Burdekin and the Central Coast
and Whitsundays districts.

Coastal residents between Ayr and Mackay are specifically warned of the
dangerous storm tide, particularly on the high tide this morning. The sea is
likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging
waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People
living i n areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to
protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow
instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the
authorities.

A storm tide is expected in remaining parts of the coast between Cardwell and
St Lawrence, particularly on the high tide this morning which may produce minor
flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by
this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as
possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for remaining coastal and island
communities from Cooktown to Cardwell and from St Lawrence to Gladstone,
extending inland to the northern Central Highlands and eastern parts of the
Central West districts during today.


Details of Tropical Cyclone Dylan at 1:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 19.4 degrees South 148.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south at 16 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 140 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 978 hectoPascals

[Nev]

TC Dylan made landfall as Cat 2 near Hideaway Bay (east of Bowen) at about 6:30am NZDT this morn…

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 20
Issued at 4:57 am EST on Friday 31 January 2014

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from Ayr
to Sarina.

The Cyclone Warning between Townsville and Ayr, and Sarina and St Lawrence, has
been cancelled.

At 4:00 am EST Tropical Cyclone Dylan, Category 2 was estimated to be over land
35 kilometres south southeast of Bowen and 200 kilometres southeast of
Townsville and moving south southwest at 26 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Dylan made landfall near Hideaway Bay (east of Bowen), at
approximately 3:30am (AEST), as a Category 2 cyclone.

It is now moving further inland and weakening.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 kilometres per hour are currently occurring in
coastal areas between Ayr and Sarina and will extending to adjacent inland
areas later this morning.
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 140 kilometres per hour may still occur close to the
system centre during the next few hours.
These winds are expected to ease by late morning.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected about coastal and
adjacent inland areas of the Central Coast and Whitsundays districts.

Coastal residents between Ayr and Sarina are specifically warned of the
dangerous storm tide on this morning's high tide. The sea is likely
to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging
waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline.
People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take
measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to
follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so
by the authorities.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for remaining coastal and island
communities from Cooktown to Ayr and from Sarina to Gladstone, extending inland
to the northern Central Highlands and eastern parts of the Central West
districts during today.


Details of Tropical Cyclone Dylan at 4:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 20.3 degrees South 148.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 26 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 140 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 980 hectoPascals
...

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1839 UTC 30/01/2014
Name: Tropical Cyclone Dylan
Identifier: 07U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 20.3S
Longitude: 148.4E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [191 deg]
Speed of Movement: 14 knots [26 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 980 hPa
…

[Nev]

Nice pic from Nasa's Aqua/MODIS satellite passing over about the time Dylan was named on Thurs arvo.

Source and higher res options here.