The weather has the Met Service guessing again!

Manukau heads obs · Sat 17/07/2004 22:50

looking at the animation seqeunce, it is moving south, and has even gone slightly SSW
its on track to end up between taupo and the hawks bay...or just east of that...by the looks

Manukau heads obs · Sun 18/07/2004 07:03

its slowed down a bit, and looking a bit frayed around the edges....
and moving more SSE
you were right steven!

Manukau heads obs · Sun 18/07/2004 08:12

http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,2975275a10,00.html

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Sun 18/07/2004 09:24

Fine and very frosty again today.
Looks like we have missed out again,the low has drifted east.

Forecasters will be scratching their heads over this weekend,heard some comments yesterday that our weather forecasts are a joke.

Manukau heads obs · Sun 18/07/2004 09:29

Forecasters will be scratching their heads over this weekend,heard some comments yesterday that our weather forecasts are a joke.

that was the whole point of this thread:
to try and point out just how difficult it is to forecast what is going to happen sometimes....i.e by showing just how dynamic and unpredicable these weather systems can be!

hindsight is a great thing....you look at the animation sequence today, and you think, why didnt i think of that.....

i wonder if there is still going to be a sting in the tail yet....
(for parts of the country that missed out (it was a real fizer up this end!!)

the next low looks like its going to fix too before it gets here.,..

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 18/07/2004 10:17

This was my forecast for the South Island, on this forum, on Thursday evening.

But the active rain cloud looks like it will miss the SI.

My point here is that the 'fizzer' was predictable.

The front to the south of the South Island has some chilly low level air with it, but convective cloud tops are quite low. Under 3000m I would say.
Should bring some wintry showers to the coastward hills of Southland/Otago.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Sun 18/07/2004 10:20

Do you mean "Fill" Hope so but then again its bottom edge may counteract the SW

Manukau heads observer wrote:
the next low looks like its going to fix too before it gets here.,..

Manukau heads obs · Sun 18/07/2004 10:21

yes, i guess they backed the wrong model (and should have backed the ecmwf more)

you should get a job as a person to bounce ideas off !

Manukau heads obs · Sun 18/07/2004 10:24

LOL, yes, I meant fill

and then another high
strange weather pattern....BOP gets heaps of rain, and we are missing it up here....

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Sun 18/07/2004 10:47

Deano wrote:Fine and very frosty again today.
Looks like we have missed out again,the low has drifted east.

Forecasters will be scratching their heads over this weekend,heard some comments yesterday that our weather forecasts are a joke.

Hardly surprising given the way your local paper reports on the weather - giving all that publicity to Ken Ring's 'prediction' then re-wording our comment that "snow was possible above 600-700m" into "Sunday could be the day snow hits Ashburton". Crikey, whats the altitude of Ashburton?

Fact is, all the areas which got severe weather out of this system had a warning of it. Some areas got warnings which didnt pan out (eg Auckland) and some areas got forecasts which were wrong (eg Marlborough, Canterbury). But hey, forecasts are just that - forecasts. Forecasters do not know what the weather is going to do. All we can do is gather up the evidence available at the time and make a judgement from it. Some forecasters like to show the uncertainty more than others, but this was a very uncertain pattern to predict (despite the fact that a heavy rain event over NZ had showed up for 14 days prior in the long range models).

The thing is, most weather forecasts are so accurate these days, that people are starting to rely on them. Bad move! They will be wrong sometimes, and the times they are most likely to be wrong are times of severe weather. But the media arent interested in that, they want to portray the most sensational possible outcome - so the parts of a forecast which support that goal are used, and the parts which dont (the "might not happens", the "we cant really be very confident at this times") get left out. Thats the real joke.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Sun 18/07/2004 10:51

NZstorm wrote:This was my forecast for the South Island, on this forum, on Thursday evening.

But the active rain cloud looks like it will miss the SI.
My point here is that the 'fizzer' was predictable.

Agreed, it looked that way at times. But the models often said otherwise. What to do? It would be professionally negligent to go with the hunch and ignore the models. But if you doubt the models? Best option of a bad lot is to go with a forecast which leans towards the worse weather, even though it may not turn out that way, and word the forecast in a way which shows there is uncertainty. I think 9 out of 10 people would rather take a coat and not need it, than get wet walking home from work.

Manukau heads obs · Sun 18/07/2004 11:10

yeah, the met service was saying all along there was low confidence and uncetainty in the exact movement and timing of the low....

in the end it was the stationary front over whakatane that did the rain damage,....and not the low.....its still raining there this morning.....associated now at last with the low....and its a disastor for people in that area, and there was correct heavy rain warnings for that area well in advance too...
the rain should clear from the BOP quickly as the low hops over the hawks bay/gisborne
i wonder if it will then finally deepen more like it was supposed to....just off the hawkes bay...

update:
the barometer is starting to fall here now slowly, despite it being a SW wind.....so that means the low is deepening quicker now...

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Sun 18/07/2004 11:22

Yes I agree Tony,our paper has been pathetic.
But the fact is people are waking up to perfectly fine day when the last 2 or 3 days rain has been forecasted for Canterbury.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Sun 18/07/2004 11:26

Weather here now Beebop(PC) with SSW gales 13c but good washing weather

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 18/07/2004 12:01

The important job for weather forecasters as far as this weekends weather goes, was predicting the heavy rainfall event in the eastern BOP and giving timely warnings. They achieved that 100%, so credit deserved there.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sun 18/07/2004 12:20

I think ECMRF have proved to having the best long range charts in the past and they got the weekend Low about right and a forecast based on thier charts would be about right.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 18/07/2004 15:34

spwill wrote:I think ECMRF have proved to having the best long range charts in the past and they got the weekend Low about right and a forecast based on thier charts would be about right.

I didn't want to say anything about this/weather forecasting etc. but I have always found ECMWF models to be the best.

It's a wonder no one has sponcered a competition to see which model forecasts are the best??

...just an idea.

still waiting for the cold southerly for Canterbury today?
When is the proper winter going to arrive?

...might have to get a winter trip to the Auckland Islands organised for next winter. Anyone interetsed

JohnGaul
NZTS

Manukau heads obs · Sun 18/07/2004 15:45

I am not very impressed, Ken has it that I am promoting the moon for all its worth....I dont..
i have stated that using it for day to day forecasts is about as usefull as tits on a bull.
but
I have always said , and I maintain, it might be prudent to keep an eye on major moon events.
Boy, you give that guy a sniff, and he takes the whole cake!.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Sun 18/07/2004 15:58

Yes We having winter and again theres plenty of islands around Auckland

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:...might have to get a winter trip to the Auckland Islands organised for next winter. Anyone interetsed

JohnGaul
NZTS

Manukau heads obs · Sun 18/07/2004 16:22

Posting here so Ken Ring can get his dirty laundry (i.e right of reply re mis quotes, etc) aired for all to see

Hi to all NZ-WX list members
As you are aware, I am barred from logging onto or posting to your Forum,
because I dared to predict something after I was ordered not to(March 03),
mentioned the Moon, and I was told the forum is only for conventional
meteorologists who get upset or angry if any nonconventional predictions
were made. The fact that my predictions use conventional models,
conventional averages and rely on purchased Metservice data was completely
ignored. To me a prediction is a prediction, using whatever models are at
hand.
I am constantly receiving postings from list-member friends, because I am
interested in the ideas of fellow workers and thinkers in the weather field
even if they are uninterested in mine. Until now I have remained silent, but
it seems my name has been cropping up on the Forum very frequently lately
and it is an inbalance that I have no right of reply, especially when I am
misquoted. For example James said he was still waiting for the earthquake I
predicted in Hawkes bay on June 17th but ignored that there was one on the
16th; Steven W. said I had Whakatane fine at the start of the weekend when
in reality in my Almanac it says rain on the Friday; I did not say snow in
Ashburton but in the foothills, etc.
Stephen, your moderator, back in '03 was most emphatic that there was no
place for the Moon in his forum, yet Brian Hamilton is now promoting the
moon for all he's worth as if he has thought of it, namely the perigee and
the new moon as recently as yesterday, and no one raises an eyelid. What is
going on? The inescapable fact is that people are using my methods and are
promoting them more widely than ever, which means they must be of use to
farmers, who are increasingly flying me around the country to speak at their
forums and conferences. As this country's only professional longrange
forecaster it is both odd and sad that I am actually barred from
conversations with other meteorologists - when I mention it in my talks
there is huge mirth. It feeds the scorn that farmers seem to already have
about meteorology in general.
List members are already split between those who continually want me to be
wrong and those who are tolerant of my views - but positive or negative, all
seem interested to read or hear and then make some comment on what I say.
May I suggest the time has come to tolerate another viewpoint. It matters
little whether or not I am invited back, because I have the opportunity to
view posts and to reply in this fashion. But it seems childishly unnecessary
to continue the ban.
regards to all
Ken

Ken Ring
Director
Predict Weather Ltd
P.O.Box 60197 Titirangi, Auckland
Tel: 649-817-7625
Fax: 649-817-2203
Mob: 021-970-696
http://www.predictweather.com
[email protected]

Manukau heads observer
Posted: Sat 17/07/2004 07:56
Post subject: The weather has the Met Service guessing again!
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Just shows you how things dont always go to plan....
...(and it just so happens its a new moon today
this is not intended as a moan at the met service...
Cheers
Brian

NZstorm
Joined: 10 Mar 2003
Posted: Sat 17/07/2004 20:36
Post subject: The weather has the Met Service guessing again!
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote:
According to latest Met Service MSL Prognosis, the air pressure will be
around 1000hpa by midnight tonight at Auckland...
...Ken Rings forecast for Wakatane this weekend was fine(partly cloudy).
Steven W
Storm Chaser

NZstorm
Posted: Thu 15/07/2004 10:56
Post subject: Herald Articles
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Michael, 13C is great BBQ weather.
NZ Herald must be competing with ken Ring in long range forecasting.
Steven W
Storm Chaser

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 18/07/2004 17:27

Michael wrote:Yes We having winter and again theres plenty of islands around Auckland
NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:...might have to get a winter trip to the Auckland Islands organised for next winter. Anyone interetsed

JohnGaul
NZTS

Yes I mean a proper winter, sleet, snow on the Port Hills etc

JohnGaul
NZTS

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Sun 18/07/2004 17:44

We've had a fresh southerly today out on the peninsula, but not that cold yet, and only scattered cloud this morning. It has clouded over this afternoon, with some spits of rain, but nothing of significance yet. But it is forecast to get worse with MetService predicting snow to 200 metres by tomorrow morning (and 400 metres in Wellington and Wairarapa). Anyway, the rain that was supposed to come from the north yesterday never arrived - instead it actually cleared midafternoon, though it stayed cold in Chch.

Manukau heads obs · Sun 18/07/2004 18:32

340mm in total over the 3 days east of whakatane....
is a report i have

and the ground was already waterlogged before this all started from a 100mm rain event 10 days ago!

its the worst in living memory is what they are saying!

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 18/07/2004 20:01

Manukau heads observer wrote:340mm in total over the 3 days east of whakatane....
is a report i have

and the ground was already waterlogged before this all started from a 100mm rain event 10 days ago!

its the worst in living memory is what they are saying!

It would be. Current weather patterns show lots of rain into those areas.
Nothing much down here tho'

JohnGaul
NZTS

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Sun 18/07/2004 22:13

The SW appears to be easing off as the next low with its easterly flow approaches to counteract it(and hopefully a ridge inbetween)