Tropical Cyclone Ola - Coral Sea

[Manukau heads obs]

High cloud overhead from this system here now today
big mares tails cirrus pointing NW towards it
Kewl

[Orion]

High cloud overhead from this system here now today
big mares tails cirrus pointing NW towards it
Kewl

Fascinating

[Manukau heads obs]

looks like it has "toppled over" now
i.e completly exposed LLCC, which is moving more SW as the 'de cloaked' upper level cloud moves SE
due to windsheer

[Nev]

Not sure that the LLCC is completely exposed just yet, i.e. still plenty of convection in the southern quarter. MetService also still have him at Cat 1 (just) this evening, with the LLCC having moved slightly more SSE in the last 6 hrs...

NZ MetService (TCWC Wellington)
Issued at 8:11pm Tuesday 3 Feb 2015

TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING 032
This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
Tropical Cyclone OLA [995hPa] centre was located near 27.9 South 162.2 East at 030600 UTC.
Position Poor.
Repeat position 27.9S 162.2E at 030600 UTC.
Cyclone is moving south 15 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 35 knots close to the centre with very rough sea and moderate to heavy swell.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 120 nautical miles of centre in the sector from east through south to northwest and within 45 nautical miles of centre in the sector from northwest through northeast to east.

Forecast position near 28.7S 162.5E at 031800 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 027.

[Nev]

Final Warning from JTWC…

WTPS31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 27.4S 161.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
...
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 28.0S 161.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM
SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NOAA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT DIMINISHING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE COMBINED
EFFECT OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY TC 10P LEADING TO ITS
DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OR POSSIBLY SOONER.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z
IS 12 FEET.//
NNNN

[Nev]

Still a seemingly intact TC at 1am this morn according to MetService, but looks to have unravelled since…

NZ MetService (TCWC Wellington)
Issued at 1:52am Wednesday 4 Feb 2015

TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING 036
This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
Tropical Cyclone OLA [995hPa] centre was located near 29.3 South 163.2 East at 031200 UTC.
Position Poor.
Repeat position 29.3S 163.2E at 031200 UTC.
Cyclone is moving south 9 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 35 knots close to the centre with very rough sea and moderate to heavy swell.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 120 nautical miles of centre in the southwest semicircle and within 45 nautical miles of centre in the northeast semicircle.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 032.

[Manukau heads obs]

the cloud sheet has moved alot overnight...rain (from upper level cloud...so more spitty type rain)..already about to move onto northland

[Nev]

Ola officially downgraded to an extratropical cyclone by MetService at about 7am this morn…

NZ MetService (TCWC Wellington)
Issued at 7:27am Wednesday 4 Feb 2015

GALE WARNING 045
This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
AT 031800UTC
Low 996hPa, former Cyclone OLA, near 31S 164E moving southsoutheast 20kt.
Within 120 nautical miles of low in southern semicircle: Clockwise 35kt.
Gale area moving with low.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 036.

[Manukau heads obs]

Wind here has gone E already...this tropical low has some speed on ...moving SE 20 kts according to M/S...the wind change here and a steady (and not rising) barometer agrees with that
the models did not predict this...but these things generally do follow the path of the outflow tail....but it was all about timing...it needed to get far south by a certain time to be caught up in the westerly flow and taken onto the upper NI...
sorry to others by I get excited by these things

[Manukau heads obs]

we now have mid level cloud deck developing ...and the rain radar shows the rain is going to fall as far south as the Auckland area and even northern Waikato
looks like an active warm front is developing
GFS was on the money more than the other models were
but its all happening quicker than even that had itf