(Ex) Tropical Cyclone Pam effects on NZ

[Manukau heads obs]

This is going to pass closer than some of the models have been indicating yesterday..and closer than the models some have been relying on...people who have been relying on that info might be a bit too complacent about this.
eastern bay of plenty is likely to get damaging SE winds
Still an easy to see eye at this stage
but the cloud tops are cooling
and so it is weakening
which is to be expected from about now as it moves over water than is cooler than 26C
how this things unravels and where the main energy/rain bands go will be crucial and how much the inner core remains intense or if the wind field spreads out a bit...so a few variables still
but WOW, this is a once in a life time event about to unfold here

[Nev]

Yes, even as TC Pam undergoes extra-tropical transition (as expected from later today), she could actually re-intensify, with her strongest winds more on the peripheries rather than the centre.

[Manukau heads obs]

Storm surge effects are also a real concern
that long period 4m N swell and lower air pressure is going to pile alot of water onto eastern NI

[melja]

Once in a life time event, now I think thats a little over dramatic even the media aren't that bad yet.

[jamie]

Will have to wait and see Melja but I'm inclined to sway to a once in a life time event. That's a return period of only 75 years. So it's not even a 1 in 100 event. In the last decade we have seen plenty of 1 in 25 and 50 year events that have sort of snuck up. This has all the hallmarks to be a big event. Best to be cautious with it than complacent.

P.S I'm referring to the impact this has on the east cape and Eastern BOP. Just look at the map forecasts for there. Scary stuff there.

[melja]

In my humble opinion it looks to be tracking more SE now just as the track forecast had it doing.

[spwill]

Might be great surfing tomorrow along eastern coasts as the winds go southwest (off shore) the likes of Mangawhai Heads and Waipu Cove

[NZstorm]

The cyclone still has an eye this morning at lat 27deg! Thats quite a long way south for a tropical cyclone to still be showing an eye.

[Manukau heads obs]

Might be great surfing tomorrow along eastern coasts as the winds go southwest (off shore) the likes of Mangawhai Heads and Waipu Cove

Yup..I am heading for Coromandel

The cyclone still has an eye this morning at lat 27deg!

Yup, thats why I am calling it a once in a life time event...i.e you are not going to see a TC stay intact (due to not too much wind sheer) this far south , etc

[GraemeWi]

The barometer is starting to drop quite quickly here, lots of cloud, and some wind. Reckon we'll be inside this afternoon by the looks of the rain radar.

[Manukau heads obs]

I reckon its done a bit of a turn more to the SSE last hour...but could be just a 'jog'
but in any case, its tending to veer closer and closer

[Nev]

Cat 4 TC Pam about an hour ago…

[David]

Thick high cloud here this morning, ESE breeze gusting about 30 km/h - should ramp up this afternoon. Not expecting to record more than 70 km/h gusts here though.

[Manukau heads obs]

that jog more to the south was only temporary...but if it does that a few more times and or does a change in direction more SSE at some stage then it could get worse than currently forecasted
but on its current path, its going to be near miss for coromandel for the worst of the wind

[jamie]

The wind has suddenly picked up here too. Suddenly jumped to 40km gusts from 15km gusts.

[Manukau heads obs]

This site has it at 940 hpa and holding..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/20 ... F-list.txt
that holding in strength is a real worry...as it transitions to ext cyclone and if its at 940 now then it could end up at the 950 the worst of the modelling indicated...

[Vertigo]

I must be the only one wish it had tracked more southerly!

Beauty of a storm. Long lived eye, still well defined, as a cat 4 just north of NZ. Loving it! Looks gorgeous. Just a shame it will pass so far from me!

[Manukau heads obs]

LOL
Yeah, I like a good storm too...but its not good when it damages property etc

[jamie]

the BOM model has been persistent at predicting it to pass very close. I wonder if this will be the wining model

Now sitting at 27.5S with an eye....Impressive

[cbm]

The NAVGEN model has it turning more South at the last moment to make landfall. Can interaction with a significant landmass actually influence the direction of a storm, and if so do the models take that into account?

Pam-NAVGEN.jpg

[Nev]

This morn's JTWC track-map...

[Vertigo]

Decent rain spreading south from the top of the country now. Looks like hours of persistent rain on the cards for Auckland within the next 1-2 hours.

[David]

Decent rain spreading south from the top of the country now. Looks like hours of persistent rain on the cards for Auckland within the next 1-2 hours.

And GFS still showing 50+ mm... might be able to double my YTD rainfall so far

[Nev]

MetService forecasting 45 kt winds (83 km/h), gusting to 55 kt (102 km/h) for the Gulf overnight.

The local supermarket has flat-out all morning and I just saw the big generator truck arriving there. Power outages a fairly common in lesser storms here.

[David]

MetService forecasting 45 kt winds (83 km/h), gusting to 55 kt (102 km/h) for the Gulf overnight.

The local supermarket has flat-out all morning and I just saw the big generator truck arriving there. Power outages a fairly common in lessor storms here.

Good luck, if we don't hear from you tomorrow morning I guess that means the power went out! Pretty rare to lose power here thankfully, last time was the storm in June 2006.