Tropical Cyclone Debbie

[Manukau heads obs]

good sat image here
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

[Nev]

^ Cool animation! Really has intensified today, down to 952 hPa. So Cat 4 at landfall looking likely.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0716 UTC 27/03/2017
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie
Identifier: 24U
Data At: 0700 UTC
Latitude: 19.5S
Longitude: 150.1E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [220 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [6 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 85 knots [155 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 120 knots [220 km/h]
Central Pressure: 952 hPa

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 27/1300: 19.7S 149.6E: 025 [050]: 090 [170]: 951
+12: 27/1900: 20.0S 148.9E: 040 [070]: 095 [175]: 950
+18: 28/0100: 20.2S 148.2E: 050 [095]: 085 [155]: 962
+24: 28/0700: 20.4S 147.5E: 065 [120]: 055 [100]: 985
+36: 28/1900: 21.0S 146.1E: 085 [155]: 035 [065]: 998
+48: 29/0700: 21.9S 145.5E: 105 [190]: 030 [055]: 1000
+60: 29/1900: 22.9S 146.2E: 125 [230]: 030 [055]: 1001
+72: 30/0700: 23.9S 148.4E: 140 [265]: 025 [050]: 1003
+96: 31/0700: 25.7S 152.9E: 185 [345]: 025 [045]: 1003
+120: 01/0700: 27.8S 156.3E: 275 [505]: 025 [045]: 1001

REMARKS:
Tropical cyclone Debbie has shown rapid development through today. Deep
convection rapidly developed around the system centre this morning, with a clear
eye developing during the day. The latest Dvorak analysis was therefore based on
an eye pattern in IR, with a LG surround and OW eye, with +0.5 for eye
adjustment DT of 5.5. MET and PT are 5.0. FT was based on DT but constrained to
5.0 due to Dvorak rules. SATCON has jumped dramatically during the day to about
90 knots. ADT from both agencies are around 5.5. Forecast system to become
category 4 in the next 6 hours.

Confidence in the centre position is rated as good based on a combination of
radar imagery from Willis Island and Bowen radars and animated visible satellite
imagery.

The mid-level ridge building to the south of the system has become the primary
steering influence. However, animated WV imagery suggests that the shortwave
trough moving north into SE Queensland may have a little more amplitude than the
models are suggesting, leading to a slight weakening of the ridge and a slightly
more southerly track which has been evident over the past 12 hours. There may
also be some influence from internal processes within the cyclone core, where it
remains somewhat disorganised. Overall, the system is most likely to remain on a
general west-southwest track for the next 24 hours up to landfall on the
Queensland coast. There is still reasonably high confidence in this track,
although there is more uncertainty on the southern side.

The system remains located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over sea
surface temperatures of 29 to 30 degrees Celsius. Conditions will remain
favourable for development right up until landfall, and this has been reflected
in an intensity forecast at a standard rate following the recent period of rapid
intensification.

[Nev]

JTWC now also have Debbie back up to Cat 4 before landfall tomorrow morning...

WTPS31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 19.5S 150.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
...
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 150.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (DEBBIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL ATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY ORGANIZING SYSTEM WITH A RESURGENCE IN
DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER, THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A 16 NM
RAGGED EYE, AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT JTWC BEST TRACK POSITION WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY
AGENCY DVORAKS OF T5.0 AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AROUND 90
KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH IMPROVED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT, RADIAL
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29C) SSTS.
TC DEBBIE HAS BEEN TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A NER AND A STR TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE SHARED STEERING INFLUENCE OF BOTH FEATURES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD, MAINTAINING A PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL TC
DEBBIE MAKES LANDFALL, BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 24, ALLOWING FOR STEADY TO
RAPID INTENSIFICATION. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND, THE FRICTIONAL
EFFECTS OF RUGGED TERRAIN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE CYCLONE LEADING TO
ITS COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN
GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 272100Z AND 280900Z.//

[Manukau heads obs]

looks like its wobbled west a bit
rain radar animation:
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR242.loop.shtml#skip

[Nev]

Debbie was upgraded to Cat 4 by the BoM at about 10Z (11pm NZDT) tonight…

[Manukau heads obs]

looks like Hamilton Island is going to get a direct hit
already 10 min average windspeed of 125kmh there!
(4:30am)
i.e its a bit more south of where it was projcted to come ashore

[NZstorm]

Hamilton Island airport metars last hr. Peak gust in last hr of 98 knots with 74 knot average. Barometer starting to rise now.


YBHM 271700Z AUTO 13072G91KT 1400 // SCT008 OVC014 27/27 Q0984
YBHM 271630Z AUTO 14074G98KT 0800 // SCT008 BKN012 OVC020 27/27 Q0983
YBHM 271626Z AUTO 14072G90KT 0800 // SCT008 BKN012 OVC017 26/26 Q0982
YBHM 271600Z AUTO 14071G93KT 0800 // SCT006 BKN009 OVC019 26/26 Q0984

[NZstorm]

Hamilton Island airport metars last hour. Peak gust 98 knots with 74 knot average. Barometer starting to rise now.


YBHM 271700Z AUTO 13072G91KT 1400 // SCT008 OVC014 27/27 Q0984
YBHM 271630Z AUTO 14074G98KT 0800 // SCT008 BKN012 OVC020 27/27 Q0983
YBHM 271626Z AUTO 14072G90KT 0800 // SCT008 BKN012 OVC017 26/26 Q0982
YBHM 271600Z AUTO 14071G93KT 0800 // SCT006 BKN009 OVC019 26/26 Q0984

[jamie]

Wish I had been organised and gone for a chase on this one. Plenty of decent infrastructure to hunker down in.

[Manukau heads obs]

I see thtat "iCyclone" is chasing this one..first time he has been in Oz

[Nev]

Here's this morn earlier tech report. Down to 943 hPa.
Currently about 105 km ENE of Bowen and 75 km NNE of Hamilton Island…

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1214 UTC 27/03/2017
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie
Identifier: 24U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 19.6S
Longitude: 149.7E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: west [264 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [9 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 95 knots [175 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 135 knots [250 km/h]
Central Pressure: 943 hPa
…
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 27/1800: 19.8S 149.1E: 025 [050]: 100 [185]: 941
+12: 28/0000: 20.0S 148.4E: 040 [070]: 105 [195]: 945
+18: 28/0600: 20.3S 147.7E: 050 [095]: 065 [120]: 977
+24: 28/1200: 20.5S 147.0E: 065 [120]: 045 [085]: 991
+36: 29/0000: 21.2S 145.9E: 085 [155]: 030 [055]: 999
+48: 29/1200: 22.1S 145.8E: 105 [190]: 030 [055]: 1000
+60: 30/0000: 23.2S 147.1E: 120 [225]: 030 [050]: 1001
+72: 30/1200: 24.1S 149.4E: 140 [265]: 025 [050]: 1003
+96: 31/1200: 26.0S 153.8E: 185 [345]: 025 [045]: 1003
+120: 01/1200: : : :

REMARKS:
Tropical cyclone Debbie has shown rapid development during the last 12 hours,
and now exhibits a clear eye on satellite and radar. Intensity is analysed at 95
knots [10 minute mean] based on a three-hour Dvorak average yielding FT5.5.
Patterns have generally featured an OW eye embedded in an LG surround, with a B
or W surrounding ring for CF5.0 + 0.5 eye adjustment. This intensity is
supported by the 09Z SATCON estimate of 101 knots [1 minute average].NESDIS and
CIMSS ADTs are generally higher at 120 and 115 knots respectively [1 minute
average].

Confidence in the centre position is rated as good based on a combination of
radar imagery from Willis Island and Bowen radars, and animated visible
satellite imagery.

The mid-level ridge building to the south of the system has become the primary
steering influence. Motion during the past six hours has been
west-southwesterly, but this has fluctuated during the day, perhaps due to a
trochoidal component. The system is most likely to remain on a general
west-southwest track for the next 12 hours up to landfall on the Queensland
coast. There is still reasonably high confidence in this track.

The system remains located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over sea
surface temperatures of 29 to 30 degrees Celsius. Overnight last night CIMSS
satellite winds showed the upper equatorial outflow became restricted, perhaps
due to the passage of a weak upper trough. This led to stalled development last
night, but the upper pattern has since returned to being more sympathetic to
further development, and this is forecast up until landfall. After landfall the
system should weaken at a rate faster than the standard decay model due to
enhanced topography along the post-landfall track.

[Manukau heads obs]

Hamilton Island (great name that), now at 143kmh av speed!
and gusts to 187kmh!
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60801 ... 4368.shtml

[Nev]

Latest BoM tech report…

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1858 UTC 27/03/2017
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie
Identifier: 24U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 19.8S
Longitude: 149.2E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [249 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 95 knots [175 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 135 knots [250 km/h]
Central Pressure: 946 hPa

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 28/0000: 20.0S 148.5E: 025 [050]: 095 [180]: 946
+12: 28/0600: 20.2S 147.8E: 040 [070]: 070 [130]: 967
+18: 28/1200: 20.5S 147.1E: 050 [095]: 050 [090]: 986
+24: 28/1800: 20.8S 146.6E: 065 [120]: 035 [065]: 994
+36: 29/0600: 21.6S 145.9E: 085 [155]: 030 [055]: 999
+48: 29/1800: 22.6S 146.6E: 105 [190]: 030 [055]: 1001
+60: 30/0600: 23.6S 148.4E: 125 [230]: 025 [050]: 1002

REMARKS:
Severe tropical cyclone Debbie has rapidly developed over the last 24 hours, and
now exhibits a clear eye on satellite and radar. As a result, the latest Dvorak
analysis was based on an eye pattern with a LG surround, an addition of 0.5 for
a B surround and an OW eye and a subtraction for an elongated eye, yielding a DT
of 5.0. MET and PAT were 5.0 and 5.5 respectively. The FT and CI were based on a
three-hour average DT of 5.5. The final intensity was analysed at 95 knots [10
minute mean] was inferred from the Dvorak satellite technique. This intensity
analysis is broadly supported by observations of 77 knot [10-minute mean] winds
at Hamilton Island airport at 1821UTC, though it is noted that this site is
elevated at 58.66m.

Observations of gales continue to be reported from Mackay, though in the last
hour the wind profiler at the Mackay racecourse has indicated a significant
increase in low-level winds, which suggests that destructive wind gusts may
begin in the area over the next few hours.

Significant sea level anomalies are now starting to be recorded on the DSITI
storm tide monitoring gauges at Laguna Quays and Mackay with positive anomalies
of approximately 1.5 metres and 1 metre respectively. Based on the current
forecast track it is likely that severe tropical cyclone Debbie will cross the
coast at around the time of high tide and could therefore lead to a dangerous
storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast.

Confidence in the centre position is rated as good based on merged radar
imagery, primarily from the Bowen and Mackay radars along the Queensland east
coast.

The mid-level ridge building to the south of the system has become the primary
steering influence. Motion during the past six hours has been
west-southwesterly, but this has fluctuated at times during the night, perhaps
due to a trochoidal component. The system is most likely to remain on a general
west-southwest track for the next 6 to 12 hours up to landfall on the Queensland
coast. There is still reasonably high confidence in this track.

The system remains located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over sea
surface temperatures of 29 to 30 degrees Celsius. Overnight last night CIMSS
satellite winds showed the upper equatorial outflow became restricted, perhaps
due to the passage of a weak upper trough. This led to stalled development last
night, but the upper pattern has since returned to being more sympathetic to
further development. This has occurred today and is forecast up until landfall.
After landfall the system should weaken at a rate faster than the standard decay
model due to enhanced topography along the post-landfall track.

[Manukau heads obs]

it is likely that severe tropical cyclone Debbie will cross the
coast at around the time of high tide and could therefore lead to a dangerous
storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast.

not good

[Nev]

Yeah, today's high tide, which is also a spring tide, is around 11am local time (2pm NZDT). Slow moving Debbie means the surge, etc will also linger for longer...

[spwill]

I see Hamilton Island with recent gusts of 196km/h, a very exposed location.

[Nev]

Yeah, and Hamilton Island's about 65 km south of Debbie's centre, although the eyewall's also about a 50 km wide eye. So could take about 8 hrs at 6 km/h for the eye to pass over…

Latest update from JTWC…

WTPS31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 19.9S 149.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
...
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 148.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 264 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 10 NM RAGGED EYE THAT IS BEGINNING TO
ERODE ON THE WESTERN SIDE AS THE SYSTEM IS NOW INTERACTING WITH THE
EASTERN SHORE OF QUEENSLAND, AUSTRALIA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE ALSO OBSERVABLE IN THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP
FROM BOWEN, AUSTRALIA WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
100 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE LOWER ENVELOPE OF BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.5 TO
T6.0 (102 TO 115 KNOTS). SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NEARBY HAMILTON
ISLAND REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 77 KNOTS WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 100
KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN VERY FAVORABLE WITH
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND SSTS NEAR 28
CELSIUS ALLOWING FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.
CURRENTLY TC DEBBIE IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL
IN THE NEXT SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER LAND
AND FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT-TERM TRACK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z AND
282100Z.//

[Nev]

Cool view of Debbie from an ISS flyover yesterday…

[Manukau heads obs]

wow, Hamilton island, 120kts (222kmh) gusts!
(but it is an exposed evelvated site from what I have read)

[David]

wow, Hamilton island, 120kts (222kmh) gusts!
(but it is an exposed evelvated site from what I have read)

And reporting 32C with 100% humidity as well...

edit: now showing 36C, sensor must be malfunctioning

[Nev]

Eye is already passing over the northern Whitsunday's…

[Nev]

Hamilton Island now gusting to 232 km/h, with 10-minute mean-winds of 191 km/h…

[Nev]

Wow! Hamilton Island has been gusting to 263 km/h since the ESE to WNW change about an hour ago...

[Nev]

Latest BoM tech report…

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0117 UTC 28/03/2017
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie
Identifier: 24U
Data At: 0100 UTC
Latitude: 20.1S
Longitude: 148.8E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [225 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [9 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 100 knots [185 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 140 knots [260 km/h]
Central Pressure: 943 hPa
….
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 28/0700: 20.3S 148.1E: 025 [050]: 080 [150]: 958
+12: 28/1300: 20.6S 147.5E: 040 [070]: 055 [100]: 979
+18: 28/1900: 21.0S 147.0E: 050 [095]: 040 [075]: 989
+24: 29/0100: 21.4S 146.6E: 065 [120]: 030 [060]: 996
+36: 29/1300: 22.6S 146.5E: 085 [155]: 030 [055]: 1000
+48: 30/0100: 24.0S 147.8E: 105 [190]: 025 [050]: 997
+60: 30/1300: 25.5S 150.2E: 125 [230]: 025 [050]: 999

REMARKS:
Severe tropical cyclone Debbie continues to exhibits a clear eye on satellite
and radar imagery. recent observations include a 10-minute mean wind of 103
knots at Hamilton Island Airport, and wind gusts of 262 km/h at Hamilton Island,
139 km/h at Proserpine airport and 119 km/h at Bowen. Other non-official
observations include a 247 km/h at Airlie Beach. These peak winds appeared to
coincide with the passage of an eyewall mesovortex evident in radar and visible
imagery. These observations have led to setting the current intensisty at 100
knots. Latest Dvorak analysis was based on an eye pattern with a LG surround, an
addition of 0.5 for a B surround and an OW eye, yielding a DT of 5.5. MET and
PAT were 5.5 and 5.5 respectively. The FT and CI were based on a three-hour
average DT of 5.5.

Destructive gusts now being reported from the Bowen area. Observations of gales
continue to be reported from south of Mackay; in the past few hours, wind speeds
in the lower levels sampled by the wind profiler at the Mackay racecourse have
leveled off or even decreased a little.

Significant sea level anomalies are now starting to be recorded on the DSITI
storm tide monitoring gauges at Shute Harbour, Laguna Quays and Mackay with
positive anomalies of approximately 1.0 to 1.5 metres and HAT exceedence at
Shute Harbour and Laguna Quays.

Confidence in the centre position is rated as good based on merged radar
imagery, primarily from the Bowen and Mackay radars along the Queensland east
coast.

The mid-level ridge to the south of the system has become the primary steering
influence. Mean motion has been to the west-southwest at about 4 knots [8 km/h]
during the past 12 hours; however superimposed on this track has been shorter
term variations in direction and speed associated with internal rearrangements
of the cyclone structure. The system is most likely to remain on a general slow
west-southwest track for the next 6 to 12 hours through landfall on the
Queensland coast and further inland, with a subsequent curve to the south on
Wednesday as the ridge weakens and an upper trough develops through southern
Australia. There is still high confidence in this track.

The system remains located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over sea
surface temperatures of 29 to 30 degrees Celsius. After landfall the system
should intitially weaken at a rate somewhat faster than the standard decay model
due to enhanced topography along the post-landfall track. However, as it tracks
inland and curves onto a southerly and eventually a south-southeasterly track
during Wednesday and Thursday, interaction with the upper level trough over
southern Australia may actually lead to an extra-tropical transition and
possibly a slight re-strengthening of the system.

[Razor]

What a monster. Just hope the mayhem can be as remote and limited as much as possible to property rather than lives