NZ Weather Forum

I think its another low thunder risk at best today for Auckland due to seasonably weak lapse rates. (upper air is not cold enough). But a risk there tomorrow for Auckland with that very cold upper air although gfs has the best moisture over Northland. Squally tommorrow.

i think tommorow will be a better risk of thunder. I think low risk too. I dont know why metservice put us under moderate risk.

tornado wrote: ↑Thu 05/09/2019 07:32 i think tommorow will be a better risk of thunder. I think low risk too. I dont know why metservice put us under moderate risk.

I would call today's type of set up a high risk in November or December. But early September we tend to be lacking on surface heating/sea breeze convergence. But we'll see what can occur this afternoon, its quite sunny right now.

987.4 hPa and falling. Low centre fairly clear now on the radar to the WNW of Auckland in the Tasman.

It's the lowest pressure here for the year so far, 987 hPa.

some dark looking clouds moving in now

I thought i just heard a low clap of thunder.

Baro bottomed at 985.3 hPa, lowest it's been since the 5 Jan 2018 subtropical storm. Now back to 986.4.

Looks like the low is moving into the Hauraki gulf, which should drag a windy convergence across the upper NI later.

Im seeing red flashes in the distance is it lightning?

tornado wrote: ↑Thu 05/09/2019 19:15 Im seeing red flashes in the distance is it lightning?

Dunno

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Thu 05/09/2019 19:49

tornado wrote: ↑Thu 05/09/2019 19:15 Im seeing red flashes in the distance is it lightning?

Dunno

i dont know either. Maybe im seeing things?

heavy rain now and i thought i just heard thunder

Gusty winds arrived very suddenly. Gentle breeze to 40kph+ gusts within a few minutes

David wrote: ↑Thu 05/09/2019 21:47 Gusty winds arrived very suddenly. Gentle breeze to 40kph+ gusts within a few minutes

yeah it was raining and then it started blowing. gotta be some damage somewhere. it ment to continue along with possible thunderstorms tommorow.

Well bugger me. No model picked up this as far as I saw. MetService were off the mark too. We have had 36mm and counting quickly since 3pm. I was expecting 5-10mm from all this.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

25mm in my gauge overnight.

Should get lightning active in the Tasman Sea by tomorrow with a chance of storms making it to Northland/Auckland by early Sunday.

NZstorm wrote: ↑Fri 06/09/2019 06:44 Should get lightning active in the Tasman Sea by tomorrow with a chance of storms making it to Northland/Auckland by early Sunday.

might get some today as its already starting to get lightning active. maybe hail too.

Another 24mm for here in the last 24 hours.

Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Thu 05/09/2019 18:28 Baro bottomed at 985.3 hPa, lowest it's been since the 5 Jan 2018 subtropical storm. Now back to 986.4.

Just looking through my historical data, it was the lowest pressure on my station since August 2017.

I can see culumus clouds building up. Im gonna keep an eye out as I think its moderate risk. maybe hail too.

Very heavy rain has set in here in Halswell. Much heavier than the radar is suggesting

from afternoon we should start to see possible thunderstorms or hail as the unsatble air comes into auckland. thunder in northland at the moment

tornado wrote: ↑Fri 06/09/2019 10:45 from afternoon we should start to see possible thunderstorms or hail as the unsatble air comes into auckland. thunder in northland at the moment

Could be a rumble or two for Auckland late afternoon/early evening.

NZstorm wrote: ↑Fri 06/09/2019 12:34

tornado wrote: ↑Fri 06/09/2019 10:45 from afternoon we should start to see possible thunderstorms or hail as the unsatble air comes into auckland. thunder in northland at the moment

Could be a rumble or two for Auckland late afternoon/early evening.

yes and some hail as well. Im seeing some good cloud build ups at the moment.