NZ Weather Forum

Pouring with rain and a strong southerly in Akaroa this morning.

Auckland council station in the hills north of Clevedon showing peak wind speed of 42.8m/s (154km/h) earlier this morning
https://environmentauckland.org.nz/Data ... val/Latest

Razor wrote: ↑Tue 03/08/2021 10:13 Are MS on the hard stuff this morning? ChCh for Sunday...

Not necessarily, big vortex blow coming up Sunday-Tuesday with low snow levels but possibly not high quantities.

A good gale here early this morning but no obvious wind damage around here.

The euro MJO forecast takes us from a brief period in phase 8 for the next few days (favouring low pressure systems), on a ride from phase 1 to 3 over the rest of August and into the beginning of September. This should favour decreasing west to southwest airflow (initially) and stronger high pressure in the Tasman and eventually over NZ (later).

GFS has certainly gone mad. Seems so outlandish these days. Has a big Warm Advection Snow event for Canterbury on Sunday. Yet EC has a little more reserved version. Access and Euro all pointing towards the moisture laden low from the country around the top of the South Island. GFS has the same low crossing over Canterbury and firing good moisture. If GFS verifies we could have some problems. currently shows about 50cm for above 200m.

CMC, Access, ICON, GFS all in alignment for a significant cut off low early next week. THK levels are interesting. Ensembles looking favourable. Plenty of yo-yo to go but something worth a watch.

Some rain overnight but not as much as expected. More showery than rain with only 5.7mm falling.
Cloudy this morning but clearing away from noon. Fresh SW this afternoon for a while.
12.1C this afternoon in sunny conditions.
Fine and clear this evening with some frosting likely in exposed areas likely tonight.

That GFS 18Z run just put 526 thickness around Auckland with some moisture early next Tuesday morning. From memory, the last time I saw that was 15th Aug 2011.

After a frost this morning a blue dome day eventuated for while before some thin high cloud began to move in from the west. Some cirrus uncinus forms in the upper atmos earlier this afternoon moving north from the SW.
Today's maximum was 12.1C. Light NE winds.

Got to fly to Wellington for the day on Tuesday, weather looking OK - hopefully the modelling keeps that awful cold windy southerly weather on Monday

I see there are a few strikes on the CB line to my west

A cold day this morning and evening with temperatures very low.
Scattered cloud around. Some clear skies resulting in a 12C maximum for today.

David wrote: ↑Thu 05/08/2021 20:23 Got to fly to Wellington for the day on Tuesday, weather looking OK - hopefully the modelling keeps that awful cold windy southerly weather on Monday

Thanks, I'm flying there on Monday

Razor wrote: ↑Thu 05/08/2021 22:59

David wrote: ↑Thu 05/08/2021 20:23 Got to fly to Wellington for the day on Tuesday, weather looking OK - hopefully the modelling keeps that awful cold windy southerly weather on Monday

Thanks, I'm flying there on Monday

We flew into Wellington when the West coast/Marlborough had their very wet period, over the period WE 17th July..
The NW was quite strong and the ATR from Timaru was wobbling from side to side whilst coming into land. A few passengers threw up. Thank goodness they have sick bags for flight on aircrafts flying into Wellington.

Looking like a day of rain showers for Chch and the coast. It has been a soggy week at times and the ground is quite saturated, so it's probably good if the weekend's precipitation largely avoids us.

doesn't look like the SW wind is going to be as bad as the models originally had for Auckland for next 2 days (northland a bit stronger)
the southerly/SSE wind on monday night looks nasty though..and cold

I saw on facebook a good fall of hail in Helensville (north west Auckland) this morning in the last hour

I do see some red/white in the rain radar
a good one heading my way now..might be some hail

Isolated heavy shower in Grey Lynn just now.

I thought we might hear thunder today but no storms developed, later Sunday is the next chance for thunder here. Tomorrow has been looking quite sunny but with a few showers around, fresh to strong southwesterly easing later.

Some scattered cloud around today especially to the north of here where I believe it was raining. Southerly winds.
Cloud clearing away to the north in the afternoon with it becoming fine. 12.3C for today.

Kairpara area getting gale SW winds this evening
we are only fresh SW winds here..the models showed the strongest wind was going to be north of here....

Watching a rapidly growing updraft to the south of Ashburton. Radar isn’t overly impressive yet.

^ Observing at present a line of cloud with bubbly bits erupting, visible to the south.
Interesting enough to inspire me to bring in the ripe lemons *now* rather than waiting a couple of hours.