Cold easterly airflow 7th - 12th Aug

[Razor]

GFS looks to be backing off the moisture for chch beyond monday

EDIT- on the flipside GFS does seem to be interested in snow on the ground late Sunday night/ Monday for a spell or 2

[Razor]

Another day with things pretty scaled back on most of the models compared to earlier in the week. As Tony alluded to yesterday, it all looks to be nuisance value rather than severe

[Dean.]

Metservice forecasting snow to 100 metres on the Canterbury plains rural forecast...will probably see a few flakes here at 109 metres on the west side of town

[TonyT]

Looking colder and colder for Chch but with less and less precipitation. Almost as cold inland, and much wetter.

[Awhituobs]

the clash between the cold easterly and warmer NE , somewhere e.g Taranaki, could result in CB,s?

[Lawrence]

Can someone be kind enough to explain abit more behind how snow to sea level works in a E-SE flow? Some models are not quite picking this with warm upper air and warm mid layers too which can often help with advection prediction outputs.
I do remember perhaps around 2007 we had a day that was particularly cold with a SE flow, that was bringing in showers and snow to 200m. For about half an hour it was grappling/ hail with enough to settle as well.
So these sort of set ups can happen.
An active period once again from tomorrow onwards, the water tables have gone nowhere so any extra rain is going to cause further issues.
I will get a few photos of my work to share.

I always have my own rule of South easterly flow, low to the east and 522 line for sea level.

[Bradley]

Yeah and this event is a 526 thickness at best..

[Razor]

Metservice has a mostly dry week for Chch after tomorrow night now.

[Storm Struck]

Yes it's very much a tomorrow night into early Monday situation, with just brief periods of showers on and off through Tuesday to Thursday. Probably no more than a few hours in-between just cloudy weather.
I do like the latest 700mb Temperatures for overnight tomorrow of -18c in line with -7c on the 850mb, although won't be too much is something which is somewhat more exciting than rain.
Interesting to see the old pine tree at Hagley Park north fell today onto Harper Avenue, managed to crush a few parked cars.
The soft soils from all the rain we've had would be the culprit, there was no high winds in the city today.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Interesting to see the old pine tree at Hagley Park north fell today onto Harper Avenue, managed to crush a few parked cars.
The soft soils from all the rain we've had would be the culprit, there was no high winds in the city today.

Something like happened in McKenzie Pack in Geraldine recently. Soft soils. Luckily there was no cars parked around the tree when it came down.
One advantage of that happening, managed to get a few bags of pinecones for the fire from this happening.
Interesting to see how long this cold weather will impact us from tomorrow. Models showing it not as severe as originally it was supposed to be.
Maybe a white covering on the lawn on Monday morning?

[Orion]

Southerly wind change has just arrived.
13.3°C here, for now...

[Tracy Herbert]

It’s 8 degrees and grey overcast now in Ashburton

[JP.]

17c and beautiful sunshine and still winds in ChCh city. Going to do some errands before it packs it in soon.

[mikestormchaser]

Beautiful day so far. Taken a nice walk up rapaki track today. No wind at all up here but I can see the overcast conditions towards ashburton. Glad I took the opportunity to get out today before it turns cold and rain this afternoon

[Richard]

Been steady wind all morning here and starting to cloud over.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Southerly through here around 1130am. Nice in the sun earlier on. Now coming onto rain from the west.

[JP.]

17c and beautiful sunshine and still winds in ChCh city. Going to do some errands before it packs it in soon.

South westerly just hit the city. Very gusty and the temps already dropped 6c to 11c.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

A bit of sleet with the rain now. Down to 4C. Wind seemed to of died down a bit.

[Bradley]

EC had 850hpa temps of -8C for Christchurch for 18 hours from Sunday night to Monday with yesterdays run and with the latest model run it only has it for 6 hours at -8C 850hpa so it seems snow to sea level just got alot harder…

[Orion]

My Westerfield Spy just reported, "They're blodging on the windscreen"

Now 5.7°C in Ashburton.

[Orion]

My Westerfield Spy: "Proper fluttering down now"

Now 4.9°C in Ashburton. Raining...

[Razor]

Pretty intense drenching rainfall in Halswell the past half hour. We don't want too much of this

[MoorfNZ]

Snowing in Sheffield at 300m asl

[Lawrence]

Got to a lovely warm 17.6 °C today until around 12:30,then it turned Southerly and the wind picked up. Presently 3.9°C now and very gusty.Mainly moderate rain at the moment.Will be interesting what happens when we get down to 1°....if we do.

[Lawrence]

Just starting to sleet here now. Temperature just hit 2°C but feels like -1.3.