Canterbury Thunderstorms Mid Next Week?

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Mon 22/11/2004 22:48

Ahh, very good Tony! You've summed it up in a way I couldn't put down. Yes, alot of these things will have to happen at the right time otherwise nothing.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Tue 23/11/2004 09:39

All we ever seem to get

tich wrote: but cold southwesterlies should then set in and (according to the latest models I've seen) linger through to the weekend. In fact it looks like quite a wintry period coming, especially after the warmer than normal temperatures we've been experiencing so far in November.

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Tue 23/11/2004 09:57

Oh well, doesn't look any good anymore. A SW has allready started to move through but it might calm down a bit before the true SW arrives if you know what I mean. There's some ok Cu developing with this change but it most likely won't get anywhere unless the sun comes out soon before the real southerly arrives.

Put it this way, the potential is there more so than other times. So something could happen. I'd give it a 1, maybe 2 on John's system.

Also just to note, had a small quake this morning. It was small but lasted around 30 or even 40 seconds, so yeah, very small but lasted a while. I thought my heart was pumping a bit too much for a second, lol.

Hello Deano from Cairns!!! Any storms lately?

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Tue 23/11/2004 10:54

Below is link to an AVI I did on Sunday when there was some buildups but then it went all crudy. I took this AVI when the crudy phase started. I think I need to take more frames though, I took (photographed) a frame every 30 seconds for around 47 minutes. A bit compressed but ok to watch, 460KB in size, around 4 seconds long.

http://www.escootersnz.com/fastpage/dow ... clouds.avi

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Tue 23/11/2004 11:30

Yeah the SW is slightly abating from the 30kmh it was at 9:30am this morning you were right Aaron on it easing back good spotting.
Things are not looking too bad its currently 17dg out there with the sun just slightly peeking through from time to time.
And as Aaron emailed me (500mb) for 4pm today.
Iam not as confident on today for storms but iam for Atleast Thursday and Friday I was also thinking there might be a chance of the odd storm especially over the Peninsula tomorrow afternoon when the rain breaks to showers and some long fine periods would be good just as long as the SW wind isnt too strong.
Cheers
JASON TIPPET.

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Tue 23/11/2004 11:35

Thats -20/-22C for 500mb at 4pm!

Yes the southerly has dropped a bit, lets hope that temp creaps up. I think that jetstream cloud above us is going to hang around, so yeah......

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Tue 23/11/2004 13:37

There's some clouds building up nicly out towards the Plains which is where our rain will come from this afternoon. It doesn't look overly convincing but its because the upper level cloud is so thick so if it was blue sky now we would be able to see some good CU developing out there.
Here's hoping for something interesting this afternon.\
Cheers
JASON TIPPET.

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Tue 23/11/2004 14:52

Some nice clouds outside brewing on the peninsula, not sure what it's like on the plains as I can't see there from where I am at the moment. Hope it is good out there. The southerly has dropped off quite a bit and allowed the temp to get up to around 17. Maybe it could be an interesting afternoon????

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Tue 23/11/2004 16:00

Big convergence line of black CU clouds the same ones I seen simular to october 16th (funnel cloud) day Aaron if you are reading this the storm seems to be going up very fast and its heading in a SW direction here frokm the NE. The qind has also gone NE here and In 15 mintues the sky is almost black here.
There's also another convergence line of Cu just more NE of me so that one will hopefully go up and get a storm here.
Cheers.
ye hah JASON TIPPET.

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Tue 23/11/2004 16:16

Yes, the wind has gone NE. I also see some good clouds brewing. It may only get to a certain height and then no higher meaning no storms but hope I'm wrong!!! I am wrong! Now I feel beter!

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Tue 23/11/2004 16:32

According to 4PM radar, most of the rain in Canterbury is about the foothills and mountains. Currently dull but dry in Chch.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Tue 23/11/2004 16:37

Heavy rain on the cards for South Canterbury tonight so maybe it will bucket down within the next few hours the low is just centred almost over Canterbury now.
Just starting to spit currently 14dg and looking dark grey and grim.
The convergence line is heading towards the SW now which is on last look it was starting to get a back wall of rain cloud few speks of lower cloud drifting over it as well.
Keep close eye on photograph post tonight I will have some pics I took of the convergence line

iam starting to love this weeks weather already and it hasnt really even started.
Cheers
JASON TIPPET.

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Tue 23/11/2004 18:15

Oh well, I doubt anything now. Too cold. Could get some ok rain though tonight, allready had a few spits.

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Tue 23/11/2004 19:51

Nice rain in South Canterbury as the trough is forming:

http://www.metvuw.com/radar/bigradar/20 ... 0Z_cny.gif

Steve, if your trying to download the AVI and it's not working, it's not working for me at home either. I'll see what I can do tomorrow?

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Tue 23/11/2004 21:42

Aaron J Wilkinson wrote:Nice rain in South Canterbury as the trough is forming:

http://www.metvuw.com/radar/bigradar/20 ... 0Z_cny.gif

Steve, if your trying to download the AVI and it's not working, it's not working for me at home either. I'll see what I can do tomorrow?

Yea I notice the fence lol

Just went for a wee drive down to templeton/ westmelton way.
Not much too see really a couple of little Cu buildups, nice, and some good looking dark bases further south, although small.
They have had quite abit more rain than we have had in chch

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 23/11/2004 22:30

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Could be a chance again on thunder activity in Canterbury mid next week as a shallow trough passes over?
I have a 4 on that possibility for the Wednesday/Thursday.
Could change as mid-next week comes closer
JohnGaul
NZTS

This prediction still remains in force

JohnGaul
NZTS

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Tue 23/11/2004 22:43

Which day, Wednesday or Thursday!!?? If both, that's good!

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 23/11/2004 23:11

Aaron J Wilkinson wrote:Which day, Wednesday or Thursday!!?? If both, that's good!

Thursday

...and also could be Saturday or Sunday ( at the moment)

keep your fingers (and legs etc. crossed)

JohnGaul
NZTS

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 23/11/2004 23:19

....sorry I forgot to add that I do have a 2 out for tomorrow anyway

JohnGaul
NZTS

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Wed 24/11/2004 09:59

Cheers, thanks John.

Look at this! That's some big hail if it comes to fruition. Would love to be there.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Wed 24/11/2004 11:47

Look at this! That's some big hail if it comes to fruition. Would love to be there.

I think the growers in the area will be getting worried - especially those that got hammered in the bad 96/97 hail summer.

No hail or thunder in Chch, but some quite heavy rain at times earlier this morning. Just the odd outbreak of rain now, but the cold southerly has become strong and gusty at times this morning. I guess there's a fresh coating of snow on the mountains.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Wed 24/11/2004 12:13

Hey John Gaul is that Storms this weekend Saturday or week after?.
Thunderstorms in force tomorrow here in Canterbury should be a number of thunderstorms not just a couple fingers crossed.

It would be good to get numbers of storms especially with hail dont know how big the hail is expected to be tomorrow I guess I will find out sooner or later if someone knows sing out.
Sun starting to peak through here in Kaiapoi clouds breaking up 6mm of rain since 10pm last night I was outside last night when it first started at 10pm some sporadic drops in there at times.

(Love the smell of rain especially when its been dry for awhile.)

Cheers
JASON TIPPET.

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Wed 24/11/2004 12:36

I believe John means for this weekend.

I got 18mm last night, not bad compared to others totals for last night.

Lets hope for something tomorrow. Metservice aren't that confident of storms tomorrow though at the moment. Tony however says there's a chance, or maybe that's Angela? Give us a run down Tony, your word is greatly appreciated

Sun coming out here in town to although lots of cloud still about, cold still aswell, around 11C at the moment.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Wed 24/11/2004 19:30

So Met service isn't predicting thunderstorms for tomorrow here (bugger)

.
Maybe there's still A chance for something to flare up if the conditions stay ok and we get a nice light wind flow and good dew point temperature.
Had a brief heavy shower at around midday today sorta unexpected brought 2mm in 8 minutes so just a quick one really otherwise its pretty much normal weather.
Someone fill me in for the chance of storms here in Canterbury tomorrow? I hope its good

.
Cheers JASON TIPPET

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Wed 24/11/2004 20:58

No more rain in Chch from about midafternoon; sun came out at times in afternoon, though it's cloudy now. Interesting some 4PM and 7PM radars both show moderate precipitation inland, but not on the coast. Some mammatus type cloud visible to west of Chch this evening.

NZ Weather Forum

Canterbury Thunderstorms Mid Next Week?

SW slightly Abating

Few clouds appearing

YEAH BIG CONVERGENCE LINE

CONVERGING LINE

Re: Canterbury Thunderstorms Mid Next Week?

Storms Saturday?

???