Deep Subtropical Low 12-18th May!!!

[Manukau heads obs]

thats a good example there David
check out the auto scale graphs, it should show that barometer spike better

ps, sounds like the kaipara area got a tornado
pps, that CB to my NNW is looking more intense...and heading my way (might just to my north?)

[spwill]

Some lightning showing up with those cells on our West Coast.

I see GFS still has good instability over us Tuesday, clearing conditions Wendsday. Model disagreement after that but GFS brings a fairly cold looking trough over NZ later in the week.

[kaimaikid]

All I can say is.....

YAY the bloody lightning drought here in the BOP is over !!!!

Was woken up @ 2.30ish this morning by the glorious tune of non-stop thunder, man it was great. Poked my head outside to watch the spectacular show complete with heavy downpours, wind etc,

Have had a few more roll through during the arvo here and hoping for a few more tonight and tomorrow, fingers crossed.

Could be in for a mission if it goes off here tomorrow...

P.S. have set up an old box to run on XP with WD running 24/7 so long as it doesn't die due to lacking tech (only 486 with 128megs of ram).

[Manukau heads obs]

good predicting there Tim, heavy rain from that CB here now

have seen a few lightning flashes to my SW from another CB

[ricky]

The trough was quite obvious on my weather graphs:
Has any1 else got this on their own 1s?

Very defined squall here...

[Michael]

Been great stationary tasman low about time and not moving SE'wards as expected

[Tornado Tim]

Brian, your about to get another 1, LOL

[Michael]

Looks black as the jack of clubs towards Brians.

[Andrew Massie]

Freakin gorgeous day in chch... if anyone cares

No.

[Andrew Massie]

The base of those huge towering black ominous CB lines that pulled through here from the west 30mins ago most diffinately had a green tinge

Known to sailors as 'The Devil's Beacon'!!

[iomkiwi]

The trough was quite obvious on my weather graphs:
Has any1 else got this on their own 1s?

Don't know what caused it, but I did hear this one coming early this morning, also there is a lot of small tree debris for about 2km along the road.

[Manukau heads obs]

interesting that was a temperature increase with that squall, intead of a temperature drop

[Storm Struck]

Steady rain falling here now , the start of the rain we have been waiting for 2mm so far.
Brief splash of rain last in Christchurch from that front, then light drizzly stuff after.
I am not surprised to see a low risk for thunderstorms about Kaikoura tonight, the dewpoints are very high for Canterbury overnight.
Looking fantastic for a wintry blast at the end of the week now, our first taste of winter and its bringing snow to very low levels possibly below 200m even.
But lets not jinx it just yet sorry guys .

[Tornado Tim]

Another squail came through, baro surge and then temp drop and wind increase:

[David]

What happened to the weather we're supposed to be getting! It's sunny as can be today

[spwill]

What happened to the weather we're supposed to be getting! It's sunny as can be today

Some Cb development ( storms) in the outer Gulf moving away( photo), weaker Cb to our west moving SE.

[Manukau heads obs]

video of the CB's going down the coast past me here between 11am and 1pm today
http://www.weather-display.com/downloadfiles/cbs.mp4

we did have a heavy shower from one of them this morning too

[Manukau heads obs]

check out ECMWF for next weekend/early next week
(i know, still a long way off and pie in the sky stuff)

[Vertigo]

the metservice public model has it too - good sign.

[drew]

Well it has been just filthy here in the Naki.

We were in New Plymouth for about 5 hours today and it never stopped raining the whole time.
We drove into a wall of water on the way up through Inglewood, with crazy amounts of rain.

Lunch at mums and she reported lots of thunder and lightning all night and most of the morning..

A couple of big CB's to be seen to the west this arvo.

Cheers
Drew

[Tornado Tim]

check out ECMWF for next weekend/early next week
(i know, still a long way off and pie in the sky stuff)

the metservice public model has it too - good sign.

It seems that the El-Nino weather patterns are starting to slip if that forecast is correct

About time too, get rid of those blimmin blocking highs

[Manukau heads obs]

could be a weekly pattern of lows in the tasman every weekend has started....not good for saturday sports, LOL

good photos from taranaki!

GFS has a big rain maker low for easter aus (they have a name for it, cant remember it now), for friday....
certainly a big jet stream in place at the moment to fuel that

[Nev]

GFS has a big rain maker low for easter aus (they have a name for it, cant remember it now), for friday....

ECL's (East Coast Lows). LOL

[Manukau heads obs]

trough axis visible now...CB to east of me has anvil blowing from north
next CB out to sea to the west has anvil blowing from south

neat when you can see that like that

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

It seems that the El-Nino weather patterns are starting to slip if that forecast is correct

Latest graph from BOM shows a big surge into La Nina for the beginning of this month.

JohnGaul
NZThS