NZ Weather Forum

Cloudy and dull with drizzle here. Looks like the worst came through early this morning, not as bad as was predicted.

Very little wind which is strange as we are exposed to the NE here

Its a legend of the wind barbs and direction,I think each barb shows 10 knots? and the black also denotes with rain

squid wrote:can you explain what the map means plz i have no idea what it means.

The Coromandal region is certainly getting the rain. The three Coromandal guages on the Environment Waikato site have topped 100mm with 150mm at the Pinnacles so far.

Raining again here in central Auckland with mist and the cloud deck almost at ground level.

cheers for explaining that michael.

Just plane old wet 'n' miserable here... Quite calm...

Looks to have eased off abit although 995 in the Tasman at the moment wonder if it will re develope in the southern ocean.
Good solid bit of rain on the way anyway places to fear the worst will likly be Hawkes Bay Gisbourne especially the ranges MS going for 200-250mm there .
Also the Kaikoura coast and between cook strait but time will tell.
Overcast here with some drizzle before should turn to rain by late afternoon.
MY 1000 POST in nearly two years not bad I guess.
Cheers
Jason.

Jasestrm wrote:MY 1000 POST in nearly two years not bad I guess.
Cheers
Jason.

Happy 1000th...

well done old chap

Dont think so,the models now show it moving off the east with a westerly flow and high in the tasman

Jasestrm wrote:Looks to have eased off abit although 995 in the Tasman at the moment wonder if it will re develope in the southern ocean.
Good solid bit of rain on the way anyway places to fear the worst will likly be Hawkes Bay Gisbourne especially the ranges MS going for 200-250mm there .
Also the Kaikoura coast and between cook strait but time will tell.
Overcast here with some drizzle before should turn to rain by late afternoon.

Jason.

heya folks, not the best day to get out in the garden but never the less. hasnt been to cold today but has been very overcast and drizzly but it is now starting to cool down.

cheers

Rain becoming heavy here now, with wind tending N now.

Persistent rain on the drive back home.. some serious potholes on the expressway down from the Bombays'.. has probably ruined a few tyres.

24 hour total 245mm so far at the Pinnacles.. may see some record-setting falls being recorded in the BoP.

That area of convection we were talking about has sprung up real strongly recently!

Foggy Hamilton wrote: That area of convection we were talking about has sprung up real strongly recently!

Huh?
In this thread, 'recently' Or maybe I missed something....

Finally home in one peice. Although the car didn't survive too well

The pot hole Foggy mentioned wasn't as bad as the one I found coming down the Kaimai's on SH29. The car now needs a new tyre and a wheel alignment at a minimum. I was the forth car in a row pulled over changing a tyre. The spot was a left hand corner and had been flooded earlier in the day, you simply couldn't see it.

Still, it could have been a heck of a lot worse... And all was dry downstairs when I got home

big area of heavy rain now over the south auckland area, moving towards the south...
big drops, but far apart....sort of rain...from a higher cloud based system...spurred up by the jet stream kink moving down it, i would say as we discussed today at the weather meet, compared to the thick drizzle we were getting during the day....

Sorry wildland, at the weather meet at Brian's.
Here's what I mean.. we don't see this sort of quick convection in the Tasman on that scale very often at all.
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/currentwe ... p?state=NZ
Boom!

Ouch snoopy! I see SH 36 and 35 are shut in places due to flooding and slips. Karangahake should be next I would expect.

Heavy rain no longer expected for Canterbury (according to MetService), but there should be snow to about 400m tomorrow. Drizzly afternoon in Chch, gradually turning to rain this evening.

ah, yes, that one....yes, that is explosive looking
ohhh, and its shows lightning strikes too, from both bolteks

Rain becoming steadier now, with the barometer dropped quite significantly to what it was about this time yesterday---1025 to 1000hpa

JohnGaul
NZTS

Hi Foggy. It must've been an "off camera" discussion then ...

Rainfall figs for Sunday now coming in from some of the wthr stns in the area:
Te Puke 96 mm, Rotorua 55 mm (although I note that Rolf had a bit of a glitch with his system earlier in the day and had to poke it in the ribs) so it's probably higher.

A couple of stns that I keep an eye on are off-line, including Wainui Bch near Gisborne.

Methinks it was a bit wet. Family in the BOP area say it was "squishy" (a highly technical term) but lack a weather station to back up the comment with figures.

Here at Tawa (Wellington) 17 mm for Sunday. We were lucky that the low tracked further north - pretty much on the original course. Whew!

Seems that Northland got the worst of the rainfall from this one. Now it can buzz off and not surprise us with a sting in its tail as it does so.

Foggy Hamilton wrote:Sorry wildland, at the weather meet at Brian's.
Here's what I mean.. we don't see this sort of quick convection in the Tasman on that scale very often at all.
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/currentwe ... p?state=NZ
Boom!

Ouch snoopy! I see SH 36 and 35 are shut in places due to flooding and slips. Karangahake should be next I would expect.

yes foggy i see what you mean, theres a huge blob in the tassie not that far off the west coast of the NI.

thoughts for thunder risk today anyone?

glad to hear that everyone got back ok, even if it did mean wrecking a wheel/tyre....buggar!

I feel vindicated for calling this a weather bomb last week now...despite the powers that be changing the thread title.

This segment from the NZ Herald this morning...
full article here:http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story ... D=10394929

"The rain and wind warning issued by MetService late on Saturday caught many by surprise, as a fine weekend had been forecast for the country as late as Thursday evening.

MetService said a rapidly deepening low pressure system from the subtropics contained "unseasonably heavy bursts of rain".

MetService ambassador Bob McDavitt said several factors led to the sudden deterioration in the weather, which left rivers swollen and paddocks sodden yesterday.

A "bombing low" was the consequence of a jet stream which formed over New Caledonia, he said.

The "river of faster-moving air in the upper levels" combined with some messy troughs that formed over the Tasman Sea on Saturday.

"We didn't end up with an easy weather map. We had multi-centred lows, which meant it was a bit of a shambles. It didn't come together nicely like a jigsaw."

Full marks Razor and other contributors to this thread.
Based on the comments made here, I alerted family in the BOP and Gisborne areas to make sure they had cleared their gutters etc. There was a bit of a gathering to collect firewood in the BOP on Saturday, and all the participants were unaware of what was coming their way until I my email arrived.

Interestingly, Bob McDavitt hinted at a heavy rain event on National Radio on Friday afternoon, but the Nat. Rad. forecasts didn't reflect this until Saturday afternoon. Most odd.

The question now is:
Will conditions be calmer for a flight to Gt Barrier tomorrow??

Whilst I would have been happy for the thread title to remain as it was (in fact it was my wording, after combining the two previous threads), I dont think this depression ever reached the status of a "bomb low" in the sense that the central pressure didnt change by at least 1 Bergeron (ie 24 mb over 24 hours factored to latitude 60S). The rate of pressure change may have approached this at times, and that is probably the basis for Mr McD's comments.

These storms are always interesting because they form in a sub-tropical trough which means there is often some very warm and very moist air available to be advected southwards onto New Zealand. However, the areas of very moist air are often quite small and narrow, hence the areas of really heavy rainfall can often be quite localised and brief, and rather hard to predict.

Well it certainly seems the heavy rainfalls are far from localised and brief over the last couple of days...

Thanks for the explanations on "Bombs". I always thought it was just a media constructed term used to sensationalise deep depressions. Good to hear the background.

Razor wrote:Well it certainly seems the heavy rainfalls are far from localised and brief over the last couple of days...

Thanks for the explanations on "Bombs". I always thought it was just a media constructed term used to sensationalise deep depressions. Good to hear the background.

Google "bergeron" and see what comes up (apart from a biography of the great man, which might be interesting as well).

I beg to differ on the rainfall front - it seems to me the heavy rains from this storm have been much more variable over time and space than is the case for many southwards moving depressions. Sure, there has been some rain in most places, but from the media reports I have seen the heavy falls have been far from widespread and localised into specific areas. Feel free to corect me...