Warm windy week ahead 13-17th Nov!!

Manukau heads obs · Thu 16/11/2006 08:33

sure is a nice unstable picture over the tasman today, which is slowly moving towards us
remember when whangerie got deluges of rain from orographicly forced CB lines in warm and very humid northerlies some years ago?
something similar could happen?
very high DP here now for the time of year!

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 16/11/2006 08:36

16/17C dewpoints , feels like summer

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Some showers to cross the area shortly, looks like the heavy stuff will pass west of us.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Thu 16/11/2006 10:43

doubt we will get 25 today

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 16/11/2006 11:35

doubt we will get 25 today

Has clouded up with the Front moving across but with the high dewpoints the temp will move up very quickly in any afternoon sunshine.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Thu 16/11/2006 13:48

Few showers about this afternoon.. dewpoint up to 19C!!

Snowlover · Unread post by **Snowlover** » Thu 16/11/2006 15:01

Man its hot!!! It's 28C in my part of town!!!!

C-Nimbus · Unread post by **C-Nimbus** » Thu 16/11/2006 16:01

Just between you lot and me, I spotted some Castellanus clouds up around the lower - mid deck at about 1.30 pm.

From what i understand this form of alto/cu is a precurser of instability etc etc.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Thu 16/11/2006 18:55

Yes, there was some Altocu castellanus there today. I think that was part of the warm front which brought a few heavy showers to Auckland this morning.

Manukau heads obs · Thu 16/11/2006 21:05

i can see a nice looking CB top in the last of the setting sun out to the west....reminds me of that distant CB at sunset in the midwest we saw!

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Fri 17/11/2006 10:45

Upper air is more stable over NZ today than it was yesterday with warming aloft over the North Island and cooler surface temps over the South Island. Still looks to be a low chance of thunderstorms along that frontal boundary though.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Fri 17/11/2006 12:52

Been on this forum 2 years as of today

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Humid,warm,and moist out there at the moment overcast at times but some sun making breif appearances with occasional spits of rain.
Light NE wind after a strong SW wind came through around midnight last night also currently 19C.
Certainly quite a few ingrediants there for thunder at the moment just unfortunate models disagree.
There was a Tsunami warning in place yesterday for Japan and the Pacific a magnitude 8.1 quake occured but was then cancelled later on.
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/ptwc/wmsg
Probly explains all the 4 and 5 quakes on the scale across NZ in the last 48hrs.
Cheers
Jason.

Manukau heads obs · Fri 17/11/2006 13:22

the caifornia coast did get wave surges that caused strong rips and caused some damage in some locations..

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Fri 17/11/2006 14:31

Warm enough here to melt an Iceberg.
Temp only in the low twenties but our dewpoint temp is 18C, very sticky.

Manukau heads obs · Fri 17/11/2006 15:35

looks like they are getting usefull rain in north and east otago.....which is a good thing to see in developing el nino at this time of year
(maybe it wil be another claytons elnino?)

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Fri 17/11/2006 15:45

And that rain has reached here now was light all of a sudden turned heavy with some quite large drops so more a west coast rain really.
Temperature is up and down too went down from 19C to 13C before now back up to 16C with heavy rain.
EDIT.. Not sure but I think I just heard thunder to the west sounded like it but nothing on tracker probly just hearing things

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Edit again.. it is thunder just had another rumble in the same direction rain getting heavier too.
Cheers
Jason.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Fri 17/11/2006 16:36

Rain eased back now to just light falls and the sun is trying to come through still a light NE too.
Few strikes here and there on tracker now even a few in the canterbury region in the direction i heard it from before.
The latest radar below shows how isolated to the north it is not sure if it is heading south or out to sea I would say out to sea.
6mm of welcome rain in about 40mins.
Thunderstorm near Westport too at the moment.
Cheers
Jason.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Fri 17/11/2006 19:13

Thunderstorm inland now going by tracker and certainly more active out there now.
Still getting some heavy bursts of rain off and on.
There was a blue patch in the sky before too I could see towering CU towards the west

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Where is everyone

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Cheers
Jason.

Fujita Phil · Unread post by **Fujita Phil** » Fri 17/11/2006 20:03

Looks like a concentrated storm there Jas... Going off?

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Fri 17/11/2006 20:56

Yes there seems to certainly be a storm out there only thing is I can't see the storm due to middle layer cloud and some lower clouds.
Certainly saferics on the radio and the tracker is picking it up well too perhaps as it gets abit more darker i will be able to see flashes.
Cheers
Jason.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Fri 17/11/2006 21:03

That lightning is in the Alps, north of Mt Cook through to the Kaikoura ranges.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Fri 17/11/2006 21:08

Lightning visable in the sky not far from here to the sw

Cheers
Jason.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Fri 17/11/2006 21:10

NZstorm wrote:That lightning is in the Alps, north of Mt Cook through to the Kaikoura ranges.

I dont think so! Some thunder heard here over the last 2 hours, but as Jason says, too much lower level cloud to see any storms. The odd heavy shower passing over, rainfall rates peaking at 40mm/hr, 16mm total so far.

dogmelon · Unread post by **dogmelon** » Fri 17/11/2006 21:11

Really?, thunder must be able to travel a long way since I am hearing thunder in christchurch. Wrong this time, mr know-it-all.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Fri 17/11/2006 21:19

Sorry, the lightning is through the main Alps but also looks to have been a storm over the Culverden area or there abouts. Nothing in the Kaikouras.

dogmelon · Unread post by **dogmelon** » Fri 17/11/2006 21:22

It doesn't matter anyway, there isn't much to it.