TC Ivy

Ratrover · Unread post by **Ratrover** » Fri 27/02/2004 21:55

Cool -cant wait!

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Fri 27/02/2004 22:03

My prediction is that ex cyclone Ivy will cross the North Island then slide down the east coast of the North Island and park itself off the coast of Mid Canterbury and slowly decay.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Fri 27/02/2004 22:14

So it means SW for us

Perhaps we can look forward to some decent weather in July but every year is worse than the one just gone

Deano wrote:My prediction is that ex cyclone Ivy will cross the North Island then slide down the east coast of the North Island and park itself off the coast of Mid Canterbury and slowly decay.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Fri 27/02/2004 22:26

i made a gif in photoshop showing the convergence of ex-tropical cyclone iva and the depression. Notice a cold front after the 'mess'.

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Sat 28/02/2004 00:25

Good work Foggy, I like timelapse stuff etc. I was thinking of combining all the metservice sat pics for an animation but Brian seems to of done something here.

Brian, where is this animation, I'd love to see it.

Cheers
Aaron Wilkinson

Ratrover · Unread post by **Ratrover** » Sat 28/02/2004 00:54

ya reckon itll be good for march 6th - im concrete pouring?

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Sat 28/02/2004 05:36

Steady rain here at 5.30am,with a mild northeaster.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 28/02/2004 07:56

Current forecasts have the area from Great Barrier Island to BOP/Gisborne getting the brunt of the weather from Ivy remnants.

I notice the Barometer at the Chathams is still high on 1025hpa.

Manukau heads obs · Sat 28/02/2004 08:21

check out the latest met serive sat picture!
there she blows!
and it still has an eye and surrounding cloud spirals and its on OUR satellite picture!
and boy is it moving fast!
it sure looks like its going to get real close!
i would say its going to be here by early morning tomorrow at the speed its moving at !
31mm here overnight

GraemeWi · Unread post by **GraemeWi** » Sat 28/02/2004 08:39

It's been a while since we had a nice cyclone heading our way.

The satelite image looks very impressive.

I've had 45mm from 5pm last night through to 8.30am today. I suspect my 24 hour total is going to be quite high (5pm-5pm is my cycle)

G

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sat 28/02/2004 08:45

Satellite photo this morning looks impressive with a Front across NZ extending North to Ivy, which at the moment is heading our way.

There has been very little Thunderstorm activity with the current system but it has been cool for a deep NE flow with Temps and Dew points only now reaching 18c.

Manukau heads obs · Sat 28/02/2004 09:03

the next sat pic will show its exact movement better
remember, you need to add the speed of movement to the winds on the SE quadrant, so if its moving at 20 knots, you add 20 knots, which could make that area get 70 knot winds easily!

Manukau heads obs · Sat 28/02/2004 10:03

the actual eye center has been moving very much south, according to this animation sequence (produced by yours truly, automaticly, and weather display)
even though the tail and cloud sheet look to be heading a bit more SSE
still on course for a direct hit by the looks of that movement!
the latest met service sat pic will be ready soon too!

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Sat 28/02/2004 10:12

Steady rain here at 5.30am,with a mild northeaster.

Steady rain for about the last hour in central Chch. Only a bit of light rain beforehand, but the wind (northeasterly I guess) must've been near gale for a time early this morning. Still quite strong and gusty.

GraemeWi · Unread post by **GraemeWi** » Sat 28/02/2004 10:15

The eye has got bigger...but moving to the SE

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Sat 28/02/2004 10:23

The met service always over estimates our temperatures in this type of weather.Even the 23c predicted is too high with winds and rain 65 kph to 100.It was shown as 25 yesterday forecasted today unless we get a warm sector of N-NW it will be lucky 19c with rain nonstop

spwill wrote: There has been very little Thunderstorm activity with the current system but it has been cool for a deep NE flow with Temps and Dew points only now reaching 18c.

Manukau heads obs · Sat 28/02/2004 10:30

you bet me too it graeme!
yeah, its going to completly miss us if it keeps moving SE like that, we wont see it at all!
but these things can be eratic, and once it becomes extra tropial, it might slow up, change course....
but wow, though, there it is NE of norfol islands and it still has en eye!

Manukau heads obs · Sat 28/02/2004 10:58

i think the lack of warm air is becuase the airmass we have originating more from around the high that just departed (which had air left over from the last cool SWer)...i.e thats why we still have a warm front over us

Ratrover · Unread post by **Ratrover** » Sat 28/02/2004 11:33

Blowing bout 30knots nne and drizzly up here - will have to go to the coast for a closer look - expecting some good sea action!

Manukau heads obs · Sat 28/02/2004 11:52

http://ps.gen.nz/~hamgap/waipu.htm

yup, gusting to 36 knots at waipu

(they had the power off overnight

Skywatcher · Unread post by **Skywatcher** » Sat 28/02/2004 12:01

Ivy (ex-TC ?) is now far enough south that I can see it on polar orbiting satellites received here. This is part of the 11:06 IR image. The 3D image looks impressive if you have red-blue glasses

There are only two active satellites at the moment (Murphy's Law) so the next image will be after 18:30

More of the image showing the low off the West Coast as well and with less compression is at: http://www.templeton.gen.nz/images/02272206ir-b.jpg (332 KB)

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Sat 28/02/2004 12:37

Was there a thunderstorm near Chch later this morning, Steven G's lightning counter semed to get a workout from about 11:00am and I was just looking at it and a count came up!! Anyone seen anything?

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sat 28/02/2004 15:42

Aaron J Wilkinson wrote:Was there a thunderstorm near Chch later this morning, Steven G's lightning counter semed to get a workout from about 11:00am and I was just looking at it and a count came up!! Anyone seen anything?

I haven't noted anything this morning (although we have a 8/8 cloud cover at about 100 metres judging by the Port Hills)
The NE has been strong here.

JohnGaul
NZTS

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Sat 28/02/2004 15:44

More rain tonight, esp. Auckland, Waikato, Tauranga.
80mm expected in Auckland from 1am til 7am.

Great Cricket weather

Manukau heads obs · Sat 28/02/2004 16:27

latest met service sat pic is in
still looks awesome!
and it looks to be moving a bit more south again, but its a bit hard to tell where the center is ( i have used a ruler on the screen)
batten down the hatches me thinks!
(i mean there is a big high blocking its SE movement is there not!)