Thunderstorms, Upper NI, Sept 28th-30th

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Willoughby
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Re: Unsettled Period Late September 2009

Unread post by Willoughby »

Tornado Tim wrote:Possible Severe thunderstorms are predicted tomorrow, A sunny morning is expected too, if this proves true the temps may get past 20°C and this will help if any T-storms start occurring.
The "hot" hours are 2 PM and 4 PM. LI is expected reach a whopping -8.6 at 2 PM.
Geez, how much modifying of that skew-t did you do? 22C as a starting SFC temperature is extremely optimistic for tomorrow where there doesn't seem to be much of a sign of sub-tropical moisture with the dew points around 12C. I'd also like to see a lifted index of -9C (CAPE 4500+), but this just isn't possible in NZ. By the looks you should treat that program with a bit of caution...

Should be interesting up there again with heavy showers developing from midday.
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Tornado Tim
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Re: Unsettled Period Late September 2009

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Yea, it seems a little optimistic eh.
I will have to see what the next forecast spits out.
Update: it must have been a dud run.
Now it seems more inline with reality, LOL
Added the updated Skew T here:
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Last edited by Tornado Tim on Mon 28/09/2009 21:32, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Unsettled Period Late September 2009

Unread post by DT-NZ »

Another active day weather wise here in the north... I'm overtired... *yawns* and here's few pics *another yawn* taken today from the east and west coasts today - a picture(s) speaks a thousand words... take care.

ps: great pics spwill _b
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Re: Unsettled Period Late September 2009

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TV ONE news story regarding todays tornado.
http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/tornado ... 3434/video
Last edited by spwill on Mon 28/09/2009 21:26, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Unsettled Period Late September 2009

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It will go N or NE for a time in the morning again before the trough line I guess.
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Re: Unsettled Period Late September 2009

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The gfs lifted index forecast of -2 to -3 looks realistic Tim. I agree with Foggy, -8 would be impossible in NZ. You need to be in a continental region to get that kind of number.
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Re: Unsettled Period Late September 2009

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Yea the program must have hit some bad data or referred back to neutral advection.
It now looks more realistic.
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Re: Unsettled Period Late September 2009

Unread post by ricky »

Yeah mine is getting a bit optimistic with LI -5 at 1pm Wednesday as well, its the DP of ~17 that must be from the GFS data used by the new advection routines..
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Re: Unsettled Period Late September 2009

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spwill wrote: I have just been down to Ramarama, looked very much like Tornado damage.
I agree, it seems to have lifted somewhat in places along the path too where only upper or little tree damage is seen... I didn't realise that the large glasshouse a bit up the hill was hit.. thought it was just derelict!
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Tornado Tim
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Re: Unsettled Period Late September 2009

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Here is the latest Thunderstorm Outlook issued from M/S.
High Risk for Auckland and Waikato it seems.
GFS has LI indices down to -3.5 and the CAPE pool by NP , it is expected that this will progress forward as there are 3 troughs which may push these out to land as the low comes closer to NZ.
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Re: Unsettled Period Late September 2009

Unread post by Nev »

Re yesterday's Ramarama 'tornado', TVNZ also have a selection of damage pics...

'Tornado rips through Ramarama' - TVNZ Photo Gallery

And this morns follow-up stories...

'Tornado tears top off couple's home' - The Dominion Post
'Tornado tears into country homes' - NZ Herald
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Re: Unsettled Period Late September 2009

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

the 11am time is interesting
that was after the main front
I do remember seeing a new blow up line going up over auckland city way around that time
and condtions around here were very unstable too at that time...very unstable looking sky...and shower developed just off shore very quickly...a bit elevated at that too....
an interesting day!

looks more stable, compare to yesterday, to me, today....will be showers, but not as unstable as yesterday....?
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Re: Unsettled Period Late September 2009

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but not as unstable as yesterday..
We need the weather to stay fine this morning to warm things up a bit.



Looked to have been good low level shear yesterday. Airport metars had NNE upto 18kts and the NZWP00Z sounding had a 50kt NW flow at 850mb!
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Re: Unsettled Period Late September 2009

Unread post by tgsnoopy »

We had a short sharp hail shower around 1pm in Tauranga, decent sized hail, possibly 8-12mm diameter, but very short lived, but it was hard to gauge as I drove through it. Otherwise nothing much to report, a showery equinoxial wind type of spring day.
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Re: Unsettled Period Late September 2009

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

well, M/S have pulled out all the stops for today!
http://www.metservice.co.nz/public/weat ... storm.html

I guess day time heating will be a big player?
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Re: Unsettled Period Late September 2009

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

It seems there is already a nice CB in the west coast atm :smile:
Link back to M/S: http://www.metservice.co.nz/public/maps ... 6-hrs.html
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Re: Unsettled Period Late September 2009

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wow yes metservice have really let the cat out of the bag here. Clear fine morning here in Hamilton which makes it all the better for later when the showers arrive.

If something is worth chasing and i am not busy i will go for a quick local chase.
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Re: Unsettled Period Late September 2009

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

how things look to the west as of now...
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Thunderstorms Sept 28th-30th

Unread post by DT-NZ »

Nice blue skies... and the sun is shinning... beautiful day... currently 16.6 C out...
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Re: Unsettled Period Late September 2009

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Medium level overcast here now blocking our view west :( , 16C, the dewpoint is 12C, some towering Cu also.
Thunderstorms close to the Taranaki and the Northland coastline (west) currently .
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Re: Unsettled Period Late September 2009

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Well the blue skies and sun have gone... there's power surges as I type this... took this pic approx 5 mins ago...

Whatever is showing up on the radar's now is heading our way - it looks black out towards the west and looking mean...
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Re: Unsettled Period Late September 2009

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Exciting! Have fun!
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Re: Unsettled Period Late September 2009

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There better be no thunderstorm at 2.55pm in Hamilton. After this, absolutely!
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Re: Unsettled Period Late September 2009

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Thunderstorms over the top of Northland drifting SE.
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Re: Unsettled Period Late September 2009

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290909-1.jpg
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