Ex-TC Lusi affecting NZ - Mar 14-17

[littleheaven]

I am casting a wary eye at the giant marquee that's been erected outside our Takapuna office. It's for an event on Thursday but they won't have it down by the weekend. The posts go a metre deep - hoping it's still there on Monday!

[jamie]

The models this morning show a continued slowing trend. Or well crossing nz later In the weekend.

While in the tropics lusi is doing better than the models originally picked up.

[NZstorm]

The system looks to be within the exit region of the subtropical jet as it moves down onto NZ. That's why the gfs is maintaining a deep system.

[Avalanche]

I keep hearing rumors about the jetstream being moved and thats whats causing more severe weather around the world?

[melja]

I think I saw NZstorm hint at that a week or so ago but got no comments

[littleheaven]

I see Metvuw are currently predicting a direct hit on first Northland and then Auckland.

http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast ... noofdays=7

[Manukau heads obs]

yeah, that is been on the cards for a while now....
high tides this weekend too..

[Manukau heads obs]

http://blog.metservice.com/2014/03/trop ... lone-lusi/

[jamie]

Strong wording in that blog

[Nev]

Today's outlook for the weekend (Friday looks ok now)…

MetService - Severe Weather Outlook

Issued: 2:06pm Tuesday 11 Mar 2014
Valid from Thursday 13 March 2014 to Sunday 16 March 2014

A broad ridge of high pressure should cover much of the country through to Friday, however, a weakening front is expected to move onto the South Island on Thursday, bringing a modest amount of rain to Fiordland and South Westland.

However, by midnight Friday, a deep low of tropical origin is expected to approach the far north, then move south over the North Island during Saturday and Sunday. There is some uncertainty with regards to the track and depth of this low, however, many parts of the North Island and upper South Island may be in line for severe weather over the weekend.

As indicated, there is a moderate risk of heavy rain over much of the North Island for a time during Saturday and Sunday, spreading south to Cook Strait, Marlborough and northern Canterbury on Sunday. In addition, there is a moderate risk of severe gale easterlies spreading south over northern parts of the North Island on Saturday, then affecting Cook Strait, Kapiti Coast, Marlborough Sounds, Manawatu and Taranaki on Sunday.

MetService Severe WX Outlook - Is. Mar 13, 2.06pm.png

[David]

I notice GFS has dropped the forecast wind speed a little bit over the last few days. Still plenty of rain showing up though

[Manukau heads obs]

some nice flaring convection now around the LLCC

[jamie]

This is getting lots of attention in the media which is nice to see.

[Nev]

The system looks to be within the exit region of the subtropical jet as it moves down onto NZ. That's why the gfs is maintaining a deep system.

I think the same thing happened with Bola. Luci's track-maps also look virtually identical to Bola's path. Hmm…

[Avalanche]

Yes Nev, your right there i was looking at Cyclone Bola stats last night and noticed a similar track and barometric pressure too. The thing with Cyclone Bola is that it hung around for 3 to 4 days i read somewhere. Some rainfall totals of 900mm for Gisborne region unreal.

[jamie]

Wow that's interesting. Was bola forecast to hang around that long? Or were forecasts weak back then. Reason I ask is lusi is forecast to hang around a day or two but if the high can cradle it more than expected, it could end up hanging around for a few days

[Avalanche]

Hi Jamie, yea from what i read there was a high below or around the south island holding it in place. Im pretty sure thats right but theres others on here that might know more about it than i do. Big storm coming...

[NZstorm]

I was in Auckland at the time of Bola but I didn't follow the situation. I can recall the wind with it.

Back in the days of Bola the computer technology was poor and weather forecasting was not as accurate as you expect today.

[spwill]

Bola had a slow approach to NZ which prolonged the heavy rain, the heavy rain lasted a few days on the East Coast. I was living in the UK in 1988 so missed this storm.

[jamie]

I've just had a good look at the models. I have never seem such a powerful storm forecast. The wind and rain and high tides are going to cause all sorts of mess.

I think the fact that all models are in really good agreement for a nasty storm and have been for so long already is telling. Glad the public have had plenty of warning on this. Ill be watching with a keen eye to see how things develop.

[Manukau heads obs]

I was in California when Bola hit NZ...did not see any news about it over there, LOL

[LittleTreeHouse]

I was a child in Gisborne when Bola hit. Remember it like it was yesterday! Friends had water up to their light switches and my school was closed for a couple of weeks.

[tgsnoopy]

Hmm, I don't recall Bola as being that bad. Big swells deposited lots of debris on our sand stripped beaches. My big memory of that year was the Thunderstorm 2 weeks later, worked some horrendous hours for Telecom trying to keep gear running. It's a key reason my interest developed.

[David]

The 12z GFS this morning has the low at 988 hPa as it passes Auckland, that is certainly a rise from the 975 modelled a few days back! The forecast track has stayed reasonably consistent though

[treetop]

There is no high folowing this system so there will be a lot of lower and middle level moisture support from the N/NW throughout the duration.Could expect major flkooding over a large part of NZ if models hold.