Tropical Cyclone Debbie

[Tornado Tim]

Looks like the eye wall has just reached inland now.....

[Nev]

Yes, eyewall looks to be crossing the coast…

[Manukau heads obs]

I think the wind vane at Hamilton Island must have been blown 180 around
263 kmh gusts was reached there!

[spwill]

Gust up to 159 Km/h now at Proserpine

[Nev]

Eye is pretty much over Airlie Beach now…

[Nev]

Debbie certainly hasn't lost any of her structure at landfall…

[Manukau heads obs]

the eye is slowly getting smaller though on the rain radar

[Manukau heads obs]

I see Bowen is getting 80kt gusts now
I think the damage is going to be worse than from Yassi

[Manukau heads obs]

the barometer is rising now ,from the stations around it, so its weakening, now that the eye is over land
sure is sow moving still though

[Dean.]

Been a rough ride for Hamilton Island guests,I wonder if they would evacuate guests in the days before next time

[Manukau heads obs]

yes, I wondered that too

[Nev]

Debbie was downgraded to Cat 3 a few hours ago. Latest BoM tech report…

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0709 UTC 28/03/2017
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie
Identifier: 24U
Data At: 0700 UTC
Latitude: 20.4S
Longitude: 148.4E
Location Accuracy: within 10 nm [20 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [228 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [9 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 70 knots [135 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 100 knots [185 km/h]
Central Pressure: 968 hPa
...
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 28/1300: 20.7S 147.8E: 025 [050]: 050 [095]: 984
+12: 28/1900: 21.1S 147.2E: 040 [070]: 040 [075]: 991
+18: 29/0100: 21.5S 146.9E: 050 [095]: 030 [060]: 995
+24: 29/0700: 22.1S 146.7E: 065 [120]: 030 [055]: 998
+36: 29/1900: 23.4S 147.3E: 085 [155]: 030 [050]: 999
+48: 30/0700: 24.8S 149.2E: 105 [190]: 025 [050]: 998
+60: 30/1900: 26.3S 151.4E: 125 [230]: 025 [045]: 998

REMARKS:
Severe tropical cyclone Debbie crossed the coast around midday near Airlie
Beach, and has since continued to move slowly inland. With land interaction, the
eye has gradually become cloud-filled and less defined on radar, and convection
around the eyewall has gnerally weakened. Observations during the day included a
10-minute mean wind of 103 knots at Hamilton Island Airport, and wind gusts of
262 km/h at Hamilton Island. Other non-official observations include a 247 km/h
at Airlie Beach. These peak winds appeared to coincide with the passage of an
eyewall mesovortex evident in radar and visible imagery. Recent intensity
analyses have been based primarily on peripheral observations and the standard
inland decay model. Dvorak not completed with the system overland.

Significant sea level anomalies were recorded on the DSITI storm tide monitoring
gauges at Shute Harbour, Laguna Quays and Mackay, with a peak surge {with no
wave setup] of around 2.7 metres at Laguna Quays. Significant anomalies are
still being recorded at These gauges.

Confidence in the centre position is rated as good based on merged radar
imagery, primarily from the Mackay radar and peripheral observations.

The mid-level ridge to the south of the system remains the primary steering
influence. Mean motion has been to the west-southwest at about 5 knots [9 km/h]
during the past 12 hours; however superimposed on this track has been shorter
term variations in direction and speed associated with internal rearrangements
of the cyclone structure. The system is most likely to remain on a general slow
southwest track further inland for the next 12 to 18 hours, with a subsequent
curve to the south on Wednesday and southeast on Thursday as the ridge weakens
and an upper trough develops through southern Australia. There is still high
confidence in this track.

The cyclone crossed the coast with an intensisty estimated at 105 knots. Since
then, the system has weakened at a rate consistent with the standard decay
model. As it tracks inland and curves onto a southerly and eventually a
south-southeasterly track during Wednesday and Thursday, interaction with the
upper level trough over southern Australia may acually lead to an extra-tropical
transition and possibly a slight re-strengthening of the syste

[Nev]

Extratropical Debbie was downgraded to a Tropical Low at around 6am NZDT (1700z) this morning, after making landfall at Airlie Beach at 3:40pm NZDT (0240z) yesterday.

Final BoM tech report…

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1227 UTC 28/03/2017
Name: Tropical Cyclone Debbie
Identifier: 24U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 20.7S
Longitude: 147.8E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [242 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Central Pressure: 983 hPa
...
REMARKS:
Severe tropical cyclone Debbie crossed the coast early this afternoon near
Airlie Beach on the Queensland coast, with the centre of the eye crossing the
mainland at about 12:40pm AEST. Preliminary landfall intensity was estimated at
105 knots based on Dvorak analysis and earlier gusts up to 262 km/h at Hamilton
Island. The SATCON estimate near landfall time was 98 knots.

The system has since moved slowly southwest over land while weaking. With land
interaction, the eye has gradually become cloud-filled and less defined on
radar. Only a small amount of deep convection remains about the centre.
Peripheral gales are currently occurring along the coast at Bowen, Hay Point,
and Hamilton Island, and periodically inland at Moranbah. Recent intensities
have been based primarily on these peripheral observations and the standard
inland decay model. Dvorak not completed with the system overland.

Confidence in the centre position is rated as good to fair based on merged radar
and satellite imagery.

The mid-level ridge to the south of the system remains the primary steering
influence. Mean motion has been west-southwesterly for the past 24 hours. The
system is most likely to remain on a general slow southwest track further inland
for the next 12 hours, with a subsequent curve to the south on Wednesday and
southeast on Thursday as the ridge weakens and an upper trough develops through
southern Australia. There is still high confidence in this track.

As the system tracks inland and curves onto a southerly and eventually a
south-southeasterly track during Wednesday and Thursday, interaction with the
upper level trough over southern Australia may acually lead to an extra-tropical
transition and possibly a slight re-strengthening of the system.