Tropical Cyclone Donna

[Nev]

Donna was downgraded to Cat 3 by Nadi around 1pm toady, with a central of 963 hPa and mean-winds around 150 km/h.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A25 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
May 090150 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE DONNA CENTRE 963HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0S
166.2E AT 090000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 VIS/EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTHEAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 6 KTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 80 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT. ORGANIZATION REMAINS GOOD. SYSTEM
LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM STEERED
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTER WITH LG SURROUND, YIELDS
DT=4.5, MET=5.0 AND PT=4.5. FT BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING,
T4.5/5.0/W2.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 20.3S 166.9E MOV SSE AT 08 KT WITH 75
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 21.8S 167.7E MOV SSE AT 08 KT WITH 65
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 23.6S 168.5E MOV SSE AT 08 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 110000 UTC 26.2S 170.2E MOV SSE AT 10 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE DONNA WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 090800 UTC.

[Nev]

JTWC has Donna as a high end Cat 3 on the Aus/Fiji Scale this afternoon…

WTPS31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 19.5S 166.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
…
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 166.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (DONNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 159 NM OF
NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091500Z AND 100300Z.

[Nev]

Nadi still has Donna as a decent Cat 3 the evening, but rapidly weakening according to JTWC. Radar put Donna's centre just brushing the east coast of the Loyaltiy Islands main island of Lifou (pop. 9,000), packing 150 km/h mean winds…

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A26 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
May 090755 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE DONNA CENTRE 963HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4S
167.1E AT 090600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 09 KTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 80 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT. ORGANIZATION REMAINS GOOD. SYSTEM
LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM STEERED
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTER WITH LG SURROUND, YIELDS
DT=4.5, MET=5.0 AND PT=4.5. FT BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING,
T4.5/5.0/W2.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 091800 UTC 21.7S 167.8E MOV SSE AT 08 KT WITH 75
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 100600 UTC 23.4S 168.5E MOV SSE AT 08 KT WITH 70
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 25.6S 169.7E MOV SSE AT 08 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 28.5S 171.8E MOV SSE AT 10 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE DONNA WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 091400 UTC.

WTPS31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 20.1S 167.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
…
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 167.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 138 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH WARMING
CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A RAGGED EYE FEATURE OBSERVED IN A 090432Z 91 GHZ
SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED
ON THE LOWER ENVELOP OF MULTI-AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0 TO T5.5 (90 TO 102 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AND WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE
WEST IS INTRODUCING STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, THUS IMPEDING THE
POLEWARD EXHAUST CHANNEL AND WILL STEADILY INCREASE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC DONNA IS ALSO DRIFTING INTO
COOLER WATERS AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
TC DONNA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BAROCLINIC
REGION OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND BEGIN TRANSITIONING INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TC DONNA WILL
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z AND 100900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

[Nev]

Surprised Nadi still have Donna as a Cat 3 this morning (just), with a central pressure of 979 hPa and mean winds of 120 km/h, despite her weakened convection looking to be sheared to the SE and a partially exposed LLCC…

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A28 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
May 092012 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE DONNA CENTRE 979HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0S
169.8E AT 091800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 13 KTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 65 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC BUT POSITION
POOR WITH THE UNCERTAINTY HIGH. ORGANIZATION BECOMING POOR. SYSTEM
LIES SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM STEERED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED
ON EMBEDDED CENTER WITH MG SURROUND, YIELDS DT=4.0, MET=4.0 AND
PT=4.0. FT BASED ON MET. THUS YIELDING, T4.5/4.0/W0.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 100600 UTC 23.5S 170.6E MOV SSE W AT 08 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 25.4S 172.0E MOV SSE AT 10 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 28.0S 174.4E MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 111800 UTC 31.1S 177.6E MOV SE AT 14 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE DONNA WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 100200 UTC.

[Manukau heads obs]

the intensity is based just on windspeed (which will be still very strong given the low baro reading at the center) I would suggest and not looks (it looks terrible lol)

[Nev]

This morning's JTWC track is interesting. Around 6am (NZST), they had Donna's LLCC veering round to sitting on the western side of the island of Lifou as the equivalent of a lowish Cat 2…

WTPS31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 21.1S 166.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 167.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 72 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (IR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH CONVECTION
THAT IS SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC EVIDENT IN THE IR ANIMATION. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T4.0 (45 TO 65 KNOTS). POOR
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ERODES THE SYSTEM.
ADDITIONALLY, TC DONNA IS TRACKING INTO COOLER WATERS AS IT MOVES
SOUTH. TC 18P IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE TO THE
EAST THAT HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE
RESUMING ITS MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC DONNA WILL CONTINUE ON
THIS SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AND TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL
SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 091800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z AND 102100Z.

[Manukau heads obs]

that vis sat image is the only way to see where the center is, the IR does not show it

[Nev]

Yeah, although I suspect JTWC may have based their overnight fixes on local radar imagery…

[Nev]

Donna was downgraded to Cat 1 by RSMC Nadi around 10am this morn…

GALE WARNING 063 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI May 092152 UTC.

***********TC CENTRE LOCATED AND VERY MUCH EXPOSED*********
TROPICAL CYCLONE DONNA CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9
SOUTH 167.6 EAST AT 092100 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 20.9S 167.6E at 092100 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 06 KNOTS. CYCLONE WEAKENING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO
35 KNOTS BY 100900 UTC.
...

[Nev]

Can see Donna's centre right on top of the 2nd largest Loyalty Island of Mare on the 0000z image …

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A29 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
May 092236 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE DONNA CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9S
167.6E AT 092100 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH
SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 06 KTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE
CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS.

LLCC EXPOSED WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
ORGANIZATION POOR. SYSTEM LIES NORTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A HIGH
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM STEERED
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEARED PATTERN WITH LLCC MORE THAN 100NM OF
DEEP CONVECTION, YIELDS DT=2.0, MET=3.0. FT BASED ON DT. THUS
YIELDING,
T2.0/2.0/W2.0/24HRS

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 100900 UTC 22.6S 168.8E MOV SSE AT 10 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 102100 UTC 24.9S 170.8E MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 12
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 110900 UTC 27.9S 173.7E MOV SE AT 15 KT WITH 25 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 112100 UTC 31.5S 177.4E MOV SE AT 15 KT WITH 25 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE DONNA WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 100200 UTC.

[Manukau heads obs]

its a gone burger
wont be anything left to travel to NZ at the rate it has fallen apart?
amazing really

[Nev]

Nadi still calling her a TC… lol

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A30 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
May 100126 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE DONNA CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4S 167.8E AT
100000 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 VIS/EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
04 KTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 35 KNOTS.

LLCC EXPOSED AND DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST. ORGANIZATION
POOR. SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 26 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM STEERED WESTALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED
ON SHEARED PATTERN WITH DEEP CONVECTION MORE THAN 100NM FROM LLCC,
YIELDS DT=2.0, MET=3.0. FT BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING,
T2.0/3.0/W2.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 23.2S 169.2E MOV SE AT 11 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 110000 UTC 25.7S 171.4E MOV SE AT 14 KT WITH 25 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 28.9S 174.5E MOV SE AT 16 KT WITH 25 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 120000 UTC 32.3S 178.2E MOV SE AT 18 KT WITH 25 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THIS WILL BE THE LAST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE DONNA.

[Manukau heads obs]

as long as it has concentric gales (35kts) it can be called one

[Manukau heads obs]

there is alot of moisture that the remains of Donna are bringing south
and there is 2 areas of baroclinic leaf, to the south of the remains of Donna , and moving off the coat of queensland
together with the good ol tasman low, there is plenty of rain coming for the NI

[Manukau heads obs]

its easier to see where the center is now
its moved closer to S than SSE today
going to be interesting to see how the remains of the cyclone track and develop and if it re deepens much etc

[Nev]

^ Yeah, easier to see on the visible image…

[Nev]

Final Warning from JTWC…

WTPS31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 22.9S 168.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
...
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 23.6S 168.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 116 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AND RAPIDLY DETERIORATING FULLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MENTIONED SATELLITE IMAGERY. AGENCY
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST
TWELVE HOURS AND A RECENT T2.5 (35 KNOTS) ESTIMATE COMBINED WITH
LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MARE ISLAND IS THE BASIS FOR THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 35 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
HAVE DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY AND TC DONNA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
FURTHER WHILE TRACKING SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 12 FEET.

[Razor]

Where on earth have they plucked this from on Stuff.co.nz this morning? Cat 2 still off east cape??? They claim Fiji metservice, but this must be old or an error?

[Nev]

Where on earth have they plucked this from on Stuff.co.nz this morning? Cat 2 still off east cape??? They claim Fiji metservice, but this must be old or an error?

It's both. Fiji Met put out a similar dodgy map on Tuesday evening (see earlier post), and again in their post-midnight update (their post-midnight update is often virtually just a duplicate of the previous one). They have had a few issues with their maps recently it would seem. They also put out something very similar a little while back, which ended up being taken seriously on the TV news that evening…

Edit: The obviously dodgy Stuff map was issued by Fiji Met at 1:39am on Wednesday (May 9, 1319z).

[Vertigo]

Even if that tracking map is accurate, it will hardly affect the country, other than dragging down moist air and bringing rain. Only exception is if it hugs the absolute west of the uncertainty volume.

[Razor]

Even if that tracking map is accurate, it will hardly affect the country, other than dragging down moist air and bringing rain. Only exception is if it hugs the absolute west of the uncertainty volume.

Unfortunately the sensationalist margins of the mainstream media won't worry too much about that!

[Nev]

Just for the record, Donna was declared an extratropical cyclone by 6pm yesterday evening…

GALE WARNING 067 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI May 100840 UTC.

EX TROPICAL CYCLONE DONA[1000HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0S 168W AT 100600UTC.
POSITION POOR. IN THE AREA BOUNDED BY 23S 165E 23S 172E 25S 173E 25S 165E 23S
165E, EXPECT NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UPTO 35 KNOTS.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 065.

[Manukau heads obs]

it does look like the remains of Donna are starting to deepen now