NZ Weather Forum

Media starting to pick up on threats to the Ireland v Samoa games on Saturday, vital game for Ireland who need a bonus point win to avoid exiting the tournament.

Murphy's Law eh?

The current GFS scenario would be very problematic for the tournament I would think. UKMet continues to project a 'storm of the century' scenario for the mainland of island of Honshu on Sunday morning with pressure and winds similar to 1959's typhoon Vera. Climatology suggests that wind shear this far into October should shred the typhoon before slamming the main island but models keep producing a big hit. SST's around 26 to 27c assisting their projections.

Meanwhile Hagibis is now at 915 hPa and 140 knots.

Super Typhoon Hagibis has now gone through a eyewall replacement cycle, replacing the small pinhole eye with a much larger eye. Pressure now down to 909 hPa with 140 knots winds. Weekend impact on the main island of Japan is becoming quite likely as a weakened but high impact typhoon with sustained winds between 80 to 100 knots.

Some satellite estimating techniques have Hagibis near 900 hPa now, officially 908 hPa with JTWC and 140 knots. UKMet continues to project it as a 'storm of the century' for the main island.

Latest JTWC is aligned with Japan Met Agency on the impacts on Yokohama and Tokyo. The France v England match looks like the match that needs a contingency plan. Not sure when they make that call?

Seems like the call on France vs England will be made this afternoon NZT but reports out of the U.K suggests that it will be the first World Cup game cancelled in tournaments 32 year history. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/a ... d=12275101

Major disruption about to be confirmed to the tournament, media reports of England v Frace, NZ v Italy and Scotland v Japan to be cancelled, along with Ireland v Samoa possibly as a well

I dare say they have been hoping for downgrades with such a late decision. Unfortunately 100 + ensemble members across multiple agencies have locked this scenario in for the last 48 hours.

GFS latest 18Z run launches a 933 hPa landfalling violent cyclonic attack on Yokohama and Tokyo. Other models are similar. If that comes off, there will be major infrastructure issues to an area of over 15 million people at a guess. It's hard to imagine that wind shear won't rip Hagibis to shreds on approach, as what normally happens in October in this part of Japan but models are convinced. Those abnormally toasty sea surface temperatures are playing a big part in the model projections
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Cyclone Tracy wrote:I dare say they have been hoping for downgrades with such a late decision. Unfortunately 100 + ensemble members across multiple agencies have locked this scenario in for the last 48 hours.

GFS latest 18Z run launches a 933 hPa landfalling violent cyclonic attack on Yokohama and Tokyo. Other models are similar. If that comes off, there will be major infrastructure issues to an area of over 15 million people at a guess. It's hard to imagine that wind shear won't rip Hagibis to shreds on approach, as what normally happens in October in this part of Japan but models are convinced. Those abnormally toasty sea surface temperatures are playing a big part in the model projections

Hagisbis 0910 18 Z GFS.jpg

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Looking on tropical tidbits the thing that strikes me is how close all the ensemble tracks are together. Compared to TC / ex TC near NZ last summer where they end up all over the place!

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France v England, All Blacks v Italy officially cancelled. Typhoons this strong generally leave a bit of a mess, so that Scotland v Japan game on Sunday would be doubtful.

yes, model consensus has been tight in the last 2 days.

Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Thu 10/10/2019 20:10

thanks for that. although its a shame cause the match between nz vs italy was the final pool match for us : (

Sadly in the interests of human safety, they might have to cancel the rest of the World Cup

Sadly the England v France game has been cancelled, but this will not affect who reaches the quarter finals in this Group, although it might affect who either of these teams end up playing. It will be a shame for Scotland as a win against Japan would put them through - a draw from cancellation would mean them coming home early. I am surprised no contingency plans were put in place for the many games on the south coast of Japan during what is the end of the typhoon season.

EDIT: Ironically, Sapporo in the far north has a few showers forecast for this weekend and daytime temperatures of 15°C - ideal for rugby or football.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Thu 10/10/2019 20:57 Sadly in the interests of human safety, they might have to cancel the rest of the World Cup

yes i have a feeling they might. if thay do that no one will win the cup? it will just go back with the previous winners from 2015 new zealand (all blacks).

tornado wrote: ↑Thu 10/10/2019 22:09

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Thu 10/10/2019 20:57 Sadly in the interests of human safety, they might have to cancel the rest of the World Cup

yes i have a feeling they might. if they do that no one will win the cup? it will just go back with the previous winners from 2015 new zealand (all blacks).

They should have a rugby world cup without the All Blacks, because they always win and because of this typhoon, it would be a good chance for another country to come out on top.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Thu 10/10/2019 22:23

tornado wrote: ↑Thu 10/10/2019 22:09

yes i have a feeling they might. if they do that no one will win the cup? it will just go back with the previous winners from 2015 new zealand (all blacks).

They should have a rugby world cup without the All Blacks, because they always win and because of this typhoon, it would be a good chance for another country to come out on top.

true. all blacks won 2011,2015 and they won all of their pool games this tournament. and this upcomming game now cancelled was gonna be the last pool game. anyways. been enjoying watching the games on tv.

Scotland, Ireland and Japan's pool is in such a fascinating balance that it would be great if the Samoa v Ireland and Scotland v japan games can take place.

Fingers crossed things weaken/ move through fast enough for Sundays games. The fact they can't consider postponing a day or two is breathtakingly stupid on the organisers behalf IMHO.

Razor wrote: ↑Fri 11/10/2019 10:29 Scotland, Ireland and Japan's pool is in such a fascinating balance that it would be great if the Samoa v Ireland and Scotland v japan games can take place.

Fingers crossed things weaken/ move through fast enough for Sundays games. The fact they can't consider postponing a day or two is breathtakingly stupid on the organisers behalf IMHO.

Yes agree, it's surprising that the tournament has been scheduled during the East Asian Typhoon season with a continency that outright cancels matches on weather. This scenario should have been factored in without the loss of matches. As you can see in this thread from posts 5 days ago, the typhoon was becoming quite likely it was going to ride the ridge into the southern Japan coastline this weekend.

Cirrus from poleward outflow now moving above tonight's venue in southern Japan for Australia vs Georgia. Outer rainbands may affect the match.

Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Fri 11/10/2019 16:45 Cirrus from poleward outflow now moving above tonight's venue in southern Japan for Australia vs Georgia. Outer rainbands may affect the match.

Hagibis 1110 pm.jpg

Watching live now, clearly the rain has arrived there. Georgia is a good side, could unsettle Australia in this game if they get early momentum

The TAF for Tokyo Haneda Airport now includes the effects of Hagibis - shows mean winds of 70kts with gusts to 90kts on Saturday afternoon:

TAF: RJTT 111105Z 1112/1218 04016KT 6000 -SHRA FEW005 BKN008 TEMPO 1112/1119 4000 SHRA BR FEW003 BKN005 BECMG 1119/1121 07020KT 4000 SHRA BR TEMPO 1120/1203 2000 +SHRA BR FEW003 BKN005 BECMG 1209/1212 16050G70KT 2000 +SHRA BR FEW008 BKN015 TEMPO 1212/1215 20070G90KT BECMG 1215/1218 22020KT 9999 NSW

Canada vs Namibia the 3rd cancelled game due to the typhoon but good to see Japan and Scotland can take the field.

Perhaps I am being too cynical, but with three games cancelled, the home teams game survives in Yokohama and goes ahead. Will it backfire on Japan? - it's up to Scotland to ruin the party.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/scotland/50028137

It seems some sort of Typhoon is heading towards Scotland given how dominant Japan has been come half time. The rugby universe is shifting on its axis