Polar Blast - Oct 5-6

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Tue 04/10/2022 18:56

The more recent surface models have really ramped up moisture totals for tomorrow.
It actually looks like the first front lags behind through mid canterbury and the second wave arrives to catch up with the tail end tomorrow night.
Given this I am picking a window between 9pm and 4am of snow to sea level, perhaps at a push in some areas especially north and west of the city of 3-5cm.
Just the odd snow shower wafting through on Thursday morning in the city.

darcyplumb · Unread post by **darcyplumb** » Tue 04/10/2022 19:18

Storm Struck wrote: Tue 04/10/2022 18:56 The more recent surface models have really ramped up moisture totals for tomorrow.
It actually looks like the first front lags behind through mid canterbury and the second wave arrives to catch up with the tail end tomorrow night.
Given this I am picking a window between 9pm and 4am of snow to sea level, perhaps at a push in some areas especially north and west of the city of 3-5cm.
Just the odd snow shower wafting through on Thursday morning in the city.

Is it still predominantly SW? Not holding my breath for much to happen in Ashburton.

Lawrence · Unread post by **Lawrence** » Tue 04/10/2022 21:07

Just noticed looking at the model from Ogimet for Wednesday 06:00 UTC that a low forms over the west coast.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Tue 04/10/2022 21:23

Lawrence wrote: Tue 04/10/2022 21:07 Just noticed looking at the model from Ogimet for Wednesday 06:00 UTC that a low forms over the west coast.

Lee trough due to the slight east/west component of the southerly flow wrt the angle of the alps. Happens in most southerly flows. Can cause issues for Nelson to Taranaki if it breaks free.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 04/10/2022 23:43

Badly worded
This From MS at 11.11pm tonight, Tuesday.

Canterbury, Otago and Southland
Showers, with snow lowering to sea level, clearing from inland Canterbury tonight.

Just like over-forcasting thunderstorms, maybe over forecasting their snow predictions just to be safe?

I find that surface hPa maybe too high to enhance upper level hPa levels for a significant event to happen this time of year but then lets see how this event event patterns out.

Orion · Unread post by **Orion** » Wed 05/10/2022 06:42

My Westerfield Spy has just reported it's snowing there (166m asl), "big fat flakes".

Here in Ashburton: rain, sounds a bit rattly, and in the past thirty minutes the temp has fallen half a degree to 4.4°C now.

darcyplumb · Unread post by **darcyplumb** » Wed 05/10/2022 07:03

Snow on the ground in Mayfield and Geraldine. I wasn’t expecting this until tonight? Perhaps colder this morning than originally forecast? Maybe I’ve just missed the memo.

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Wed 05/10/2022 07:12

Snowing moderately here in Lake Tekapo, very windy

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Wed 05/10/2022 07:13

darcyplumb wrote: Wed 05/10/2022 07:03 Snow on the ground in Mayfield and Geraldine.

Shows that John must be still bed :

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Wed 05/10/2022 07:18

darcyplumb wrote: Wed 05/10/2022 07:03 Snow on the ground in Mayfield and Geraldine. I wasn’t expecting this until tonight? Perhaps colder this morning than originally forecast? Maybe I’ve just missed the memo.

This was the first change that was expected to bring snow to 2 or 300m. ( briefly heavy)
Then the polar trough comes in late afternoon, that's the one with the beefy showers and will drop the freezing level right down.

darcyplumb · Unread post by **darcyplumb** » Wed 05/10/2022 07:20

Richard wrote: Wed 05/10/2022 07:13
darcyplumb wrote: Wed 05/10/2022 07:03 Snow on the ground in Mayfield and Geraldine.
Shows that John must be still bed :

Haha I thought the same thing!

darcyplumb · Unread post by **darcyplumb** » Wed 05/10/2022 07:22

mikestormchaser wrote: Wed 05/10/2022 07:18
darcyplumb wrote: Wed 05/10/2022 07:03 Snow on the ground in Mayfield and Geraldine. I wasn’t expecting this until tonight? Perhaps colder this morning than originally forecast? Maybe I’ve just missed the memo.
This was the first change that was expected to bring snow to 2 or 300m. ( briefly heavy)
Then the polar trough comes in late afternoon, that's the one with the beefy showers and will drop the freezing level right down.

Thanks for that. My friend in Mayfield has said it’s snowing heavily and the ground is white. A couple of cm’s already. The sun will probably be shining at lunchtime like nothing has even happened this morning!

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Wed 05/10/2022 07:25

darcyplumb wrote: Wed 05/10/2022 07:20
Richard wrote: Wed 05/10/2022 07:13

Shows that John must be still bed :
Haha I thought the same thing!

Yep, its a bit early for John yet, a good rattle of thunder would shake him outa bed

Orion · Unread post by **Orion** » Wed 05/10/2022 07:55

Temp. seems to have dropped quickly in the past fifteen minutes, now 2.9°C and snowflakes falling amongst the rain. Overcast seems to have lowered.

darcyplumb · Unread post by **darcyplumb** » Wed 05/10/2022 07:55

Sleet with the odd snow flake here right now.

darcyplumb · Unread post by **darcyplumb** » Wed 05/10/2022 07:57

It’s days like this that I really get irritated with the location of the MS Ashburton observation point which is out at the airport. Conditions in town are often very different to the airport.

Orion · Unread post by **Orion** » Wed 05/10/2022 08:18

Thoroughly snowing now. 2.2°C.
Lawn turning white.

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Wed 05/10/2022 08:22

Starting to accumulate in Lake Tekapo, 3-4cms now on the ground

Lawrence · Unread post by **Lawrence** » Wed 05/10/2022 08:30

Moderate rain here with the odd wet sleety mix on odd occasions when the wind picks up with the heavier showers.

darcyplumb · Unread post by **darcyplumb** » Wed 05/10/2022 08:39

Still snowing here 2.1 degrees however it is now quite windy so the snow is no longer settling.

Lawrence · Unread post by **Lawrence** » Wed 05/10/2022 08:47

Moderate snow now, temperature dropped to 0.9°c

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Wed 05/10/2022 09:18

Just rain on the drive from Halswell to Lincoln this morning but occasionally there was a hint of sleet on the windscreen

matttbs · Unread post by **matttbs** » Wed 05/10/2022 09:19

MetService have issued a orange warning now, quite a decent 20cm above 200m for Banks Peninsula and 30cm for Southland. Not bad for October

snowchaser01 · Unread post by **snowchaser01** » Wed 05/10/2022 09:20

The city in line for 5cm tonight I'd say. Also not bad for October

David · Unread post by **David** » Wed 05/10/2022 09:24

No way the low here tomorrow night is only 7 as per Metservice... I'd be expecting more like 3

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