Stormchase USA 07

Manukau heads obs · Mon 07/05/2007 14:21

Ricky has been to the USA years ago , he was telling me

its 747-400 on the way over, then a airbus a320 LA to Denver, then a 777 back to LA for those coming back early, then a 747-400 back to AKLl again
according to the tickets/itenary..just checked
(AIRNZ)

Weather Watcher · Unread post by **Weather Watcher** » Mon 07/05/2007 15:00

Has anybody seen any Skew-T's relevant to the Greensburg tornado which show things like vertical wind shear, CAPE and/or helicity?

Manukau heads obs · Mon 07/05/2007 15:06

SPC that day talked about CAPE of 5000 and huge amounts of wind shear, with a 50 kt SW wind at 500hpa
they do have a archive on their site I think?
(scroll right down the bottom)
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Mon 07/05/2007 19:37

Check out the grlevel3 animation...
http://www.metsul.com/__editor/filemana ... _radar.gif

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Mon 07/05/2007 19:52

http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/4517/stormvt6.jpg

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 07/05/2007 20:07

Has anybody seen any Skew-T's relevant to the Greensburg tornado which show things like vertical wind shear, CAPE and/or helicity?

SPC keep an archive here.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/e ... index.html

Weather Watcher · Unread post by **Weather Watcher** » Mon 07/05/2007 21:59

Thanks Brian and NZStorm (Steven?), that's what I'm after.

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Tue 08/05/2007 08:37

The severe storm action finally quieted down yesterday in Kansas and the Plains; only 11 reports of tornadoes were received, compared to 93 on Saturday and 33 on Friday. The severe weather action should stay at a slow simmer through Wednesday over the Plains; the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has portions of the region under its "Slight Risk" area for severe weather through Wednesday.

Manukau heads obs · Tue 08/05/2007 15:29

A summary of the difficult weekends chase conditions, from a UK chaser:

I agree, this weekend was a very hard chase (unless you were in OK). The storms were fast moving and all the tornadoes we intercepted were around dusk. If you look around the forums , despite the fact that we saw more chasers on the roads than I have ever seen, very few actually saw anything. We were lucky and were on the right storm at the right time. The second tornado had no condensation funnel, just a big debris cloud. If we hadn't had GR L3 and a solid cellphone data connection it would not have been safe as the baron was really struggling to show the true picture.

Manukau heads obs · Wed 09/05/2007 08:49

interesting long range discussion here:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov:80/product ... reats.html

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 09/05/2007 09:47

The dirty word for storm chasing would be 'blocking' rather than upper ridge. Its normal for the upper ridge to start making its appearance in May but we just don't want it hanging around like it did for the whole of May 2006. Yes, does look like we will be chasing the northern plains. Beyond the 22nd, we hope for a high amplitude trough to make its appearance. Historically the period 20th May to 31st of May is the most reliable period for severe thunderstorms, I don't see this year being any different at this stage.

So at this stage it looks like we should be aiming for South Dakota on Monday.

Manukau heads obs · Wed 09/05/2007 10:33

Ok, yes...things have been mobile this spring,so no reason to think that will not keep occuring.... so looks like the 2nd week over there will be the best, which is the opposite of last year...
And just have to remind myself that even a slight risk day will produce thunderstorms way better than what you will see here in NZ (for lightning)

thanks for easing my mind NZStorm

Manukau heads obs · Wed 09/05/2007 20:18

this sounds promising:
http://weatherclimatelink.blogspot.com/
(first paragraph)

and from a Uk chaser:

The 00Z GFS is rather more encouraging this morning, although it's still a way off! Even so, it breaks down the ridge much quicker, and brings a trough into the Plains later next week.

Update: things look even more upbeat for this weekend with a low level jet returning , and things looking more upbeat again for the middle of next week
boys, i think we are going to have one helluva trip!

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Thu 10/05/2007 08:51

There is a heap of convection on the look out over from KS to northeast TX.. after the trip up to SD maybe?

Looks like GREAT weather on arrival in Denver too.. 30Â°C max during Sunday!

Sure a change from 3 weeks ago there!

Manukau heads obs · Fri 11/05/2007 08:13

good idea...i was going to suggest we could visit them in the down period
Looks like alot of driving coming up keep up with that cold front alright!
Ricky and Foggy, I started a "Blog" on the WD forum ,check it out...also "Hobbytalk" said he will activate the wireless cards for us on the 11th...check that thread...

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Fri 11/05/2007 19:53

..nrn High Plains...

Relatively high confidence in strong thunderstorm development will
be noted across southern Montana during the day3 period. Both the NAM and GFS
move northwestern U.S. Trough into western Montana by 14/00z. Heights will fall
across the northern High Plains after dark which will prove beneficial in
the development of an expansive area of deep convection. Forecast
soundings across southern Montana suggest Ely flow will deepen ahead of
shortwave trough with nice veering profiles expected across the southeastern
1/3rd of the state. It appears surface dew points could easily approach
50 f as far west as bil...or perhaps lvm ahead of convective
development. As a result...strong thunderstorms should easily
develop over the higher terrain of southwestern Montana by middle afternoon...then
spread east-northeastward within a very favorable shear environment for
sustaining supercells. If moisture does indeed hold across this
region isolated tornadoes should be noted in addition to large hail
and damaging winds. Upward evolving supercell clusters may form an
mesoscale convective system before spreading into eastern Montana/western ND after dark.

Bit far away.. hmm

GreggWard · Unread post by **GreggWard** » Fri 11/05/2007 20:12

I too hope you guys have a very enjoyable and successful trip. All the best.

Manukau heads obs · Sat 12/05/2007 07:41

We might be able to get to Visit the person I know in Carterlake (borders with Nebraska and Iowa), that we did not get to visit last year , by the looks of the storm chase area coming up monday or so

the fact there is even a circle drawn in on the long range map is a very good I think

early next following week looks good as there is a big moisture feed coinciding with an upper level trough at the same time

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 12/05/2007 08:15

Yes, looks like a chance of supercells over the northern states Sunday/Monday. Have to wait until the day to know though.

We can visit the NSSL at Norman 1pm Thursday.

Manukau heads obs · Sat 12/05/2007 11:51

good tip: pack a change of underwear for every tornado we see!
LOL

I am packing 12 pairs, one for each month of the year

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Sun 13/05/2007 15:18

Best to keep on the same thread.

Have arrived in beautiful Denver after a 27 hour journey.
Looks as though we're leaving early tomorrow, 7am up north to target South Dakota.. and then from then Iowa.

Will post a few shots from today/yesterday, tonight.

9.18pm Mountain time here.

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Sun 13/05/2007 16:24

Sounds friggen awsome Foggy! How are you, Steve and the gang doing?

Cheers
Aaron

dija · Unread post by **dija** » Sun 13/05/2007 17:15

Foggy Hamilton wrote:Best to keep on the same thread.

Have arrived in beautiful Denver after a 27 hour journey.
Looks as though we're leaving early tomorrow, 7am up north to target South Dakota.. and then from then Iowa.

Will post a few shots from today/yesterday, tonight.

9.18pm Mountain time here.

Good to hear you lot didnt become part of 'Lost' tv show

looking forward to seeing heaps of pics

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Sun 13/05/2007 17:38

All pretty tired but in good spirits!!

Check out my blog if u want know anymore!!

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Sun 13/05/2007 18:30

Couple of photos...

Some weird thing at LAX

Going over the rockies

Some dying Cu as we were landing into Denver