NZ Weather Forum

Posted: **Sun 20/01/2008 12:22**

My forecast for Auckland Monday is for brief rain and dewpoints of 22C.

I think the heavy convective stuff would occur in the hills of Northland/Coromandal and also well inland in the afternoon and be quite localised.

Posted: **Sun 20/01/2008 12:24**

Was looking up Cyclones on google and "Cyclone Giselle" apprently caused flooding in both the Heathcote and Avon Rivers and it was extremely windy here or something, and never knew that was the one involved in the Wahine..

Posted: **Sun 20/01/2008 12:36**

Some interesting high cloud around right now, also noted either part of a sun halo (like a circular rainbow around the sun, except it was only an arc) or iridescence (don't know which). Skies actually clearing now as the photo shows and temp over 25 now! They are forecasting a low of 21 tonight!!

DSC00344.JPG

Well this storm system has proven that significant ex-tropical cyclones are possible at our latitudes, its just a matter of waiting patiently (for years

) for one to hit us directly...

Posted: **Sun 20/01/2008 12:41**

my web cam animation shows the high cloud is moving down from the north/NNW (i.e outflow from the tail sort of thing)
and you can see that in the rain radar animation...the first rain showing up is from the high cloud.,..which is moving down from the NW...

Posted: **Sun 20/01/2008 12:52**

Ryan Thomas wrote:Was looking up Cyclones on google and "Cyclone Giselle" apprently caused flooding in both the Heathcote and Avon Rivers and it was extremely windy here or something, and never knew that was the one involved in the Wahine..

Giselle affected the entire country one way or another for much of April 1968 (actually from the last few days of March in Northland). Very strong gales affected the coasts north of Wellington up to about Wanganui (top gusts around 160K+ ion numerous places). Exceptionally high rainfalls occurred around Ch'ch and Banks Peninsula, and there was flooding in the south as well.

Usual story - media oversimplification leaves many thinking it was just a Wellington storm event.

Posted: **Sun 20/01/2008 12:57**

auckland also got severe SW gales that day too

Posted: **Sun 20/01/2008 12:58**

Gee,thought the media would have jumped on board by now with headline news on Funa,considering how much damage past ex tropical cyclones have caused across the country.Latest Metservice severe weather outlooks look interesting.

Posted: **Sun 20/01/2008 12:59**

Wind is really starting to blow here. If its this windy now whats it going to be like when Funa actually starts affecting us

.

Posted: **Sun 20/01/2008 13:19**

gusts are good alright. just had one blow through my open french door, made most lightweight stuff fly around the room and close the door on the other side. its almost here! the track is still pretty southerly... heres hoping the easterly flow doesnt affect it too much, i want some damn good stormin!

Posted: **Sun 20/01/2008 13:23**

JTWC update...

REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 26.7S 174.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (FUNA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM
NORTH OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 23 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY IS
BASED ON AVAILABLE DVORAK SATELLITE FIXES. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED
AND HAS LOST CONSIDERABLE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
THE STORM HAS ALSO ACCELERATED TO THE SOUTH. THE FORECAST REASONING
HAS CHANGED ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TC 12P IS NOW
EXPECTED TO TRACK AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED AND WILL ALSO COMPLETE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION EARLIER. THE STORM WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PRIOR
TO TAU 12. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 BEFORE
TRACKING SOUTHWARD AGAIN, AS THE STORM COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION JUST AFTER TAU 24. THE OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREE-
MENT WITH THIS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z
IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z AND 202100Z.//
NNNN

Posted: **Sun 20/01/2008 14:07**

i see the first rain bands are hitting the bay of islands area now

She has is starting to make landfall Houstan

Posted: **Sun 20/01/2008 14:09**

looks like its losing a lot of its convective activity, and is starting to spin out

Posted: **Sun 20/01/2008 14:12**

Has anyone up north been able to see the typical "fishbone" clouds associated with these things?

Posted: **Sun 20/01/2008 14:15**

gllitz wrote:Has anyone up north been able to see the typical "fishbone" clouds associated with these things?

What are fishbone clouds? what do they look like?

Posted: **Sun 20/01/2008 14:19**

to my thinking, the best rain area is now developing to the south and SE of the center...that area is intensifying....the cloud...on the sat image...and extending more SE...as it re-organises....and that is going to give northland and auckland some heavy rain tonight

Posted: **Sun 20/01/2008 14:25**

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4365487a10.html

" He said the cyclone was expected to pass over New Zealand's south island on Tuesday, with the potential it would be "nastier than Norfolk Island". "

:O, just the gusty NW winds as you guys have been saying?

Posted: **Sun 20/01/2008 14:27**

Manukau heads observer wrote:and that is going to give northland and auckland some heavy rain tonight

I hope you're right??

Wind is gusting to near gale force now here (up to 65km/h at times). Temperature also managed 26.6C earlier!

Posted: **Sun 20/01/2008 14:28**

It's already pretty windy out there really. Even in Chch. Gusting to 50 km/h at times at least.

Posted: **Sun 20/01/2008 14:31**

One report here has us at 24C, blue sky, negligible wind.

Posted: **Sun 20/01/2008 14:54**

i must say, the models have been very accurate thus far - up till now. there still is no significant curvature the the west, especially now that its beginning to unravel. looks to me like itll hit us in the face, and norfolk will be spared.

edit: infrared seems to ignore a lot of the cloud in the north of the storm.

not entirely confident with my comment... GOES visible seems to indicate a partial eye still visible

that would be in agreement with the pic below from foggy.

Posted: **Sun 20/01/2008 15:03**

Bit of data here on Funa,

Winds calculated and analysed at 1pm and also the MTSAT stationary grab at 1pm.

So probably still has a T-number of 3.5, with those max sustained winds of 55 knots.

Posted: **Sun 20/01/2008 15:44**

RWood wrote:Giselle affected the entire country one way or another for much of April 1968 (actually from the last few days of March in Northland). Very strong gales affected the coasts north of Wellington up to about Wanganui (top gusts around 160K+ ion numerous places). Exceptionally high rainfalls occurred around Ch'ch and Banks Peninsula, and there was flooding in the south as well.

Usual story - media oversimplification leaves many thinking it was just a Wellington storm event.

Quite agree. The real tragedy was in Wellington harbour, but Giselle affected a much wider area.
I well remember one of our tall conifers coming down in Gisborne and taking out the fence and blocking the road.
Neighbourhood effort, that one, as chainsaws weren't so readily available in them thar days.
Axes and handsaws to the rescue. No power for a warming cuppa afterward, either.

Posted: **Sun 20/01/2008 16:30**

the rain has arrived in auckland btw, if lightly. i get the feeling its going to open up in a sec.

Posted: **Sun 20/01/2008 16:45**

Vertigo wrote:the rain has arrived in auckland btw, if lightly. i get the feeling its going to open up in a sec.

Now spotting in Henderson, out of a leaden grey sky. I really hope we get some much needed rain from this event - had to water the lawn last night which is a lifetime first for me

G

Posted: **Sun 20/01/2008 16:50**

Has this thing made it's turn to the west yet?
Anyone know?

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