Another Low Pressure system for the weekend 2-3 August

[tich]

Is any of this going to hit us in the south island?

Only the top of the island (Nelson Ranges and Malborough Sounds) expected to be hit by heavy rain. Supposed to be some rain overnight/early tomorrow in Canterbury, but nothing like what we've had lately.

[Manukau heads obs]

just about to go and watch the game...
but the rain radar shows that cb I got is going right down through north waikato now.,...

[Vertigo]

not sure what happened to this front.. it just died! looks like it reached max intensity too far out west, and all the thunderstorms matured before they got here. by that time, the front overextended itself, and didnt seem to have the energy to force enough lifting.

unfortunate. i still see instability behind the front, and there is some activity there. we may get some isolated storms still.

[spwill]

Not sure why the thunderstorm outlook was so dramatic!

Try Storm chasing in Mid West USA when there's a bust.

[Peter]

Have had a few days on the Plains this past year when it's been a High Risk of severe weather with 95% probability of tornadoes, and >70% probability of > F2 and nada!!! and after driving 100's of miles to get there - at least here I can relax in the comfort of my lounge and wait for them to come to me!

[Paul Mallinson]

Well, it's like this... You have a bunch of forecast fields from many models to evaluate. Today, there were many parameters that coincided (such as low level and upper level instability, storm motions and very strong wind shears across the front) and so one has to have the discipline to stick to the guidance and have some faith that things will work out based on theory. At midday today, what was happening out to our west fit some new 6am model guidance very well...

Paul

Do you use gut instinct a lot in an area like this? For example, all the science seemed to point towards severe storms...but the gut instinct this afternoon just "felt" like that was wrong. As a scientist do you have inner arguments when science goes against your gut?

Phil.

Actually, I have found that one is much better off to stick to what the guidance is telling you and try and minimise gut feelings. When you stick to such a discipline, you end up getting a better result because you are being more objective. The atmosphere is really too complicated to simply second guess it. You need to have reason's why something may or may not happen. They may not always be right and the model you follow may have problems, but you have to stay as objective as possible.

Paul

[jamie]

looks nasty to the west on the sat image and it is showing to be active too

[NZstorm]

The front due 6am tomorrow looks a good thunder bet.

[tgsnoopy]

Looks like a bit of lightning down Taranaki way at the moment.

[tidd66]

Where has the winter gone? it has been so boring down here guess we will have a rough spring and you guy's up north can have a break.

[tidd66]

why does it say dazzling i typed bor ing

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Dont know why it says dazzling i typed dazzling.

Well, i'm buggered if I know. I used a similar term regarding anticyclones on a posting?

JohnGaul
NZTS

[carrot]

Boring

[NZstorm]

also looks to be a bit of lightning in the BOP and out to the west of Northland.

[Inny Binny]

why does it say dazzling i typed bor ing

OMG, did they actually do that?

boring

That ought to filter the complaining a bit!

[Manukau heads obs]

CB approaching from the NW looks good....
they sure have a move on!

[Philip Duncan]

Travelling at around 120km/h at my estimate

[Manukau heads obs]

i am picking up strikes from the approaching CB
also some lightning strikes I am picking up in the BOP at the moment as the front goes through there

[Philip Duncan]

This could produce some serious localised wind speeds in Auckland

[Manukau heads obs]

unfortunatly its 2 hours away from getting to me here, and I have to get up at 5:30 am to milk cows...so I am not waiting up for it, LOL
but I might get woken up..
wind already gusty here

[Philip Duncan]

I think it'll be here in the next 60 to 90 mins

But if I had to get up at 5:30 to milk cows I'd be in bed already!

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

and I have to get up at 5:30 am to milk cows..

...the tough life of a dairy farmer

JohnGaul
NZTS

[Philip Duncan]

Just heard a big boom of thunder...yet the storms are still well out to sea (Im in Te Atatu Pen in Auckland)

[Vertigo]

i heard that too phil

[Philip Duncan]

That's insane!? They're like 100kms away...