Convective period, NI, 25-28th January

Dale · Unread post by **Dale** » Tue 26/01/2010 07:25

Its got that feel in the air again this morning, albeit with a bit more moisture than this time yesterday.
Lovely looking pulse cell there DT

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 26/01/2010 07:29

Yes, the day has the right look about it, clear now after some early morning stratus here. I can see the temperature shooting up. The 12Z gfs has 1600j/kg cape western Waikato this afternoon. Thats very high modeled instability for NZ.
Bring on the storm!

Philip Duncan · Unread post by **Philip Duncan** » Tue 26/01/2010 08:14

A better feeling in Auckland this morning although becoming fairly overcast towards the north and the easterly sea breeze is already up and blowing the clouds at a fairly good speed.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Tue 26/01/2010 09:11

sure is hot and muggy already. yesterday was a cooler at this time. we had a low of 10 or something and last night we had a low of only 18. dewpoint is already 18.5. bring it on!

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Tue 26/01/2010 11:16

neat, i see Paul is working today. he seems to keep us updated well during a thunder day. hope he is not too busy on a day like today.

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Tue 26/01/2010 11:34

Wow look at the CAPE, thats NUTS!!!!

Weetbicks · Unread post by **Weetbicks** » Tue 26/01/2010 11:35

Impressive, though where is NZ in relation to that image ?

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Tue 26/01/2010 11:39

Weetbicks wrote:Impressive, though where is NZ in relation to that image ?

LOL all the CAPE is centered around the North Island

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Tue 26/01/2010 11:49

WOW! what are the lifted index values for today?

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Tue 26/01/2010 11:54

jamie.h wrote:WOW! what are the lifted index values for today?

its in the CAPE chart....

Dale · Unread post by **Dale** » Tue 26/01/2010 11:58

Thats about the best CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) I have seen here since moving back from SeQ a couple of years ago, whats more is the 500mb temps are very cool.. literally. Shear through the levels is almost non existant which means a couple of things, both pro & con.

High precip slow moving cells if not organized prone to collapsing upon themselves (again) but with upper temps could possibly dump a bit of hail in a few areas, should they get going.
LCL is a bit lower today so might be a hit miss affair in regards to lightning photography but whatever happens will be worth overheating your car for (in regards to post on previous page.)

Not often you see a setup like this here.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Tue 26/01/2010 12:04

First storms have developed between Taupo and Tokaroa.

Weetbicks · Unread post by **Weetbicks** » Tue 26/01/2010 12:10

Tornado potential?

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 26/01/2010 12:19

As Dale suggests, without a strong upper flow we are looking at pulse storms. The good thing about pulse storms is they move only slowly.

Wyoming 18Z gfs chart for lifted Index for 4pm. Big area with LI's lower than -4 !

ricky · Unread post by **ricky** » Tue 26/01/2010 12:20

I'll probably head down for a look soon, anyone else out on the road today? yes good activity showing between Taupo and Rotorua way already

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Tue 26/01/2010 12:27

NZstorm and I will head south shortly, probably head for Huntly first as we have internet there.

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Tue 26/01/2010 12:28

WXSIM has now got possible Severe Thunderstorms for the Matangi Forecast!
Make sure you guys come to Matangi so I can meet up with you spwill and Nzstorm!

Dale · Unread post by **Dale** » Tue 26/01/2010 12:50

Go sort that farmer out

David · Unread post by **David** » Tue 26/01/2010 13:02

Looks like a thunderstorm in Tokoroa now...

CHCH Weather Chaser · Tue 26/01/2010 13:08

Latest couple of runs shows an intensifying high of around 1037hpa next weekend which looks to keep the subtropical low away from the North Island. This could change again but it looks as if a miss is more probable at this stage now. The subtropical low was very slow moving due to being squeezed between two high pressure systems. Looks as if it could be potentially a very wet week for many in the east of Australia, in particular Queensland as the high intensifies here to the east. As i said this could change. Meanwhile next Tuesday there looks to be a quite large and intense subtropical low developing again behind it. One thing is for sure and that is suddenly the surrounding sea and oceans are looking a hell of a lot more lively!

In regards to this event, 1pm shows quite a bit of development within the last hour

Good luck all you guys up north! Keep us posted.

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Tue 26/01/2010 13:26

Go guys! Am looking forward to more reports, great to see some photos from yesterday.

Am driving up through Marlborough around midday / early afternoon tomorrow so may see some development, here's hoping!

Cheers
Aaron

Vertigo · Unread post by **Vertigo** » Tue 26/01/2010 13:32

a large cell seems to be developing west of taumaranui, if it continues east and strengthens, it could be the winner of the day photography wise

dan · Unread post by **dan** » Tue 26/01/2010 14:03

*sigh* I can see myself pulling out all the stops to go look at storms today, overheating car, empty bank account and all

CHCH Weather Chaser · Tue 26/01/2010 14:22

Reports on Trade me of heavy rain, thunder and lightening in Taupo at the moment.

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Tue 26/01/2010 14:26

Its not looking good at Matangi atm

to stable atm (looking north)

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Convective period, NI, 25-28th January

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