Polar outbreak June 19th to 21st

[CWUweather]

5 day forecast map is showing more moisture the then 3 day map. dont know what to believe to be honest

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Sorry, I couldn't resist..... probably not the best 1st post in the world.

You did well
Welcome to the forum

[matttbs]

5 mins and well have a better idea...hopefully..

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I hope this is a non-event, I don't to be hemmned in again by snow. Hate the stuff when it becomes a nuisance.

[Storm Struck]

I hope this is a non-event, I don't to be hemmned in again by snow. Hate the stuff when it becomes a nuisance.

Not even if its accompanied by thunder and lightning, because there will plenty of that when theres heavy snow falling.
What we have to remember too is that even when the freezing levels come up abit on Friday theres still going to be enough of a freeze cap there to keep those chain showers which will still be heavy snow showers going until mid afternoon.
So its all going to count up from Wednesday night through to Friday afternoon.

[LittleTreeHouse]

Hope it doesn't start too early Wednesday evening - my husband isn't due to fly back in until about 8pm Wednesday night and I'm a bit concerned he won't get back out here! Who will cart the fire wood and make me hot chocolate then

[LittleTreeHouse]

Oh that thunder and lightening was exciting a couple of years back. I remember standing in the kitchen and it was lighting up like day light outside! Our poor EQ traumatised kids weren't happy though...

[Orion]

I hope this is a non-event, I don't to be hemmned in again by snow. Hate the stuff when it becomes a nuisance.

Ditto.
I observe that the time it takes for me to go from "oh isn't it pretty" to "oh for goodness' sake" has become shorter over the decades

[NZstorm]

Looks like Wellington will get a snowfall on Friday!

[NZstorm]

Hope it doesn't start too early Wednesday evening - my husband isn't due to fly back in until about 8pm Wednesday night and I'm a bit concerned he won't get back out here! Who will cart the fire wood and make me hot chocolate then

Snow is due in Christchurch early Thursday.

[matttbs]

looks like just the east coast of the south island will get sea level snow

[LittleTreeHouse]

Snow is due in Christchurch early Thursday.

Phew! Must remember to turn over the tramp this time.... last year was a disaster. Metservice is STILL down - any word on that?

[Bradley]

What’s everyone’s thoughts on the Metservice coming out 3 days ahead of the event and saying this will probably be the most serious snow event in Canterbury in 20 -30 years? A huge statement that considering the moisture levels aren't there for 30 cm on the ground let alone the 60-70cm we got inland just last year and the 30cm the city received?

[Avalanche]

What’s everyone’s thoughts on the Metservice coming out 3 days ahead of the event and saying this will probably be the most serious snow event in Canterbury in 20 -30 years? A huge statement that considering the moisture levels aren't there for 30 cm on the ground let alone the 60-70cm we got inland just last year and the 30cm the city received?

Interesting statement by MS. It comes down to timing alil especially with the moisture thats what phil mentioned on WW anyway.

[Storm Struck]

The media does make things sound worse as we know, but in this case that actually could be right because the way I see at the moment could even be bigger than 1992.
30cm will fall easily 40cm possibly to sea level I mean from late Wednesday night to late afternoon Friday, those chain showers if they connect which will possibly be the case even on Friday have enough to produce good accumulations as we have seen in the past.
Also Sundays front could see another 5cm but lets focus on this one first.

[TonyT]

I'm not sure what MS have put out, but I'm very happy with the way The Press have reported my comments, which first went out to clients on Saturday. Hopefully its not as bad, I'm much happier if people say I overcalled it, than if they say they didnt hear any alerts.

[Bradley]

They summed up what you said well Tony, you made a point of saying that things could change but the way you see it now this will be a significant event and people should start preparing now…they made it sound like what you were saying is based on fact rather then just trying to create a headline for some publicity!

[Storm Struck]

Yes very well summed up and its good to be warning people early its been following in the models enough for the past week, although if it was 20cm that's not the biggest fall in 30 years as we had that last year and in the August 2011 snowfall.
Anyway I know its really just a safe figure to give out at this stage

[TonyT]

Yes very well summed up and its good to be warning people early its been following in the models enough for the past week, although if it was 20cm that's not the biggest fall in 30 years as we had that last year and in the August 2011 snowfall.
Anyway I know its really just a safe figure to give out at this stage

Correct. But refer to my comment above - its the length and other characteristics of this storm which make it worrisome, not just the total expected snow depth.

[NorthSwell]

I'm looking forward to a decent snow event... although it will impact on my mobile coffee business... ahh what the hell I'll park up on the street by a park and sell coffee to the mums and dads while the kids play!!!!

Tony, all your Press reports are spot on guess thats why I married that former employee of yours!!

[TonyT]

I learnt it all from her!

[Richard]

well thats a new one 'only married her for her forecasts'

[NorthSwell]

yes my big pick up line was.... I'm going fishing what is the weather going to be like.... I such the romantic

[Razor]

Latest metvuw looking at a more focused event now? Ages to go yet though

[Tuskedweta]

Latest metvuw looking at a more focused event now? Ages to go yet though

Yea, from what I can tell, it has the low off the east coast a little further south on Thursday now?