Tropical & EX-Tropical cyclone season 2018-19 Sth Pacific / Oz

[Nev]

Yes, the 8 named TC's in the South Pacific/Coral Sea this season (incl. Sep's TC Liua) is below its 1981-2010 average of 10.4 TC's, and only just within NIWA's Oct prediction of 8-12 named TC's.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Increased number of EC ensemble members are producing a tropical depression around the Solomon Islands later this week. Potential for an out of season tropical cyclone has increased for the South West Pacific.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Invest 94P now exists for the weak tropical depression around the Solomon Islands. American models are keen for further development, others not so much at this stage. If a TC were to be born, any movement beyond 20 degrees south will be met with hostile wind shear.

[Cyclone Tracy]

The BoM and Joint Typhoon Warning Centre have a different outlook on invest 94P you could say. Considering 94P's more defined structure in the last 24 hours, I can understand why JTWC have it on the medium chance watch list.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Tropical Cyclone Ann has been born. An embarrassing 24 hour backflip by the BoM after declaring no chance of a cyclone formation in the Coral sea. One can only imagine that the BoM only took the EC ensemble into account and not the UK and GEFS ensembles. JTWC showing the BoM that they are seasonal amateurs

[Cyclone Tracy]

Deep convection now wrapping around Ann with a hot tower appearing in the northern quadrant. Australian weather observers waking up and being shocked to see deep breathing TC in their waters

[Cyclone Tracy]

Ann is warming up. Intense lightning from inner NE quadrant are she tries to build an eyewall. ADT estimating method now has her down to 992 hPa and 57 knots sustained 1 min winds. Becoming a strong cat 1, bordering Cat 2.

[Cyclone Tracy]

BoM elevates Ann to a cat 2 this morning. She is around 985 hPa, sustained 1 min winds of 55 knots. GFS was the only model that projected this level of intensity in the last week of runs.

[Cyclone Tracy]

8.40am NZT IR sat image with lightning and BoM track map.

[Cyclone Tracy]

TC Ann looking a little more ragged this afternoon as a dry air pocket has been corroding the deep convection. BoM now have her as a high Cat 1.

Longer term: with neutral conditions ahead, the BoM and JTWC have her crossing the far north Queesnland coast as a Cat 1 on Wednesday. If she does, this will be the first May Queensland crossing since 1989.

[Cyclone Tracy]

TC Ann is now an EX-TC losing her category 1 status this afternoon and will most likely cross the Queensland coast as a tropical low. Great performance by TC Ann to achieve a Cat 2 status in mid May