Tropical cyclone - EX-TC season 2020-21 Sth Pac / Oz

[Willoughby]

Wasn't that bad in the end! But looking quite stormy to the soutwest. Last cyclone they evacuated the island and it looks like that'll happen again as the harbour master might be closed this afternoon on Cairns.

Winds are definitely picking up now having said that.

[Chris W]

BOM Access now joining GFS in taking 17U/99P away to the north of NZ as the southerly tracks through over the weekend.

[Cyclone Tracy]

JTWC has now officially declared tropical storm 23P in the Coral sea and produced their best guess on the track. Not far off now for the BoM threshold to be met and the name Niran is be born.

[TonyT]

Moderate geomagnetic storming arrived this afternoon, while the Pacific is sun-facing, which could suggest a cyclone spin up in 7-10 days time. This will be an interesting test of the theory because extended modelling currently looks rather unfavourable for development in that time frame.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Obs at the BoM's Arlington reef station suggests that the BoM will naming the cyclone quite soon. http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60801 ... 4284.shtml

[Chris W]

Name will be Niran according to BOM Queensland’s latest video on Twitter.

[Dean.]

Wasn't that bad in the end! But looking quite stormy to the soutwest. Last cyclone they evacuated the island and it looks like that'll happen again as the harbour master might be closed this afternoon on Cairns.

Winds are definitely picking up now having said that.

Had a few parties on that island !

[Cyclone Tracy]

TC Niran now in a separate thread viewtopic.php?f=9&t=6244

[Cyclone Tracy]

A MJO energised monsoon trough is on it's way for April.

[Cyclone Tracy]

UK ensemble for invest 99S. W.A likely to get late season strong hit in a weeks times.

[Awhituobs]

I see that sea surface temperatures are above normal in that area
in fact they are above normal all around australia and now all around NZ (which should lead to at least average temperatures for both countries for the next month at least)

[Cyclone Tracy]

UK, GFS and Access producing a fujiwhara effect for invest 99s & 90S off W.A mid next week.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Invest 92P now on the radar with the GEFS ensemble developing a potential cyclone near New Caledonia later this weekend.

[Cyclone Tracy]

GFS 0804 12Z continues to project a low wind shear environment around New Caledonia this weekend. It's an outlier but shows a asymmetrical cat 2 cyclone within 48 hours.

[Cyclone Tracy]

TC Seroja and TC Odette keeping the BoM's W.A office busy this weekend.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Tropical cyclone 28P born near Noumea, New Caledonia this morning.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Tropical cyclone 28P now upgraded by JWTC to 40 knots. ADT estimate now around 996 hPa. Based on ADT and JWTC observations, 28P is now a cat 1 in the South Pacific basin. Fiji met are silent, so I assume that are classifying the storm as a subtropical cyclone.

[Nev]

It's actually now in MetService's area of responsibility (AOR). They also only have a low risk of it becoming a TC today as of 11:15am this morning.

[Cyclone Tracy]

28P continues to be rated by JWTC at 40 knots on their 3 warning at 26 degrees south. Wind shear should shred it to pieces in the next 24 hours but this system should have named by MS based on all available data.

[Cyclone Tracy]

The BoM upgrades TC Seroja to a cat 3 severe TC heading into W.A.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Could produce some interesting weather for us as it drops into the Australian Bight and the westerly flow that models are predicting for the coming week or so.

[Orion]

Cyclone Seroja carved a path of destruction through WA's Mid West:

Kalbarri has been decimated by ex-Tropical Cyclone Seroja with authorities estimating damage to about 70 per cent of the town's buildings.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-12/ ... /100062020

[Cyclone Tracy]

A strong MJO pulse currently moving eastward in the west Pacific has spawned a goliath. Super Typhoon Surigae now down to 888 hPa and sustained winds of 305 km/h, gusting to 370 km/h just to the east of the Philippines. World record for April in the satellite era.

[Awhituobs]

holy crap
that's unreal
888hpa
200 kts
but did it actually peak at those numbers?

[Cyclone Tracy]

888 hPa, 200 knots was the peak.

The average of over 100 members between GEFS, ECMWF & BoM is locking in a strong MJO pulse moving into Phase 8 towards the end of April. A long way outside the ring of calmness. A late season cyclogenesis surge could be on the cards for the South Pacific.