NZ Weather Forum

TonyT wrote: ↑Sat 07/08/2021 17:38

Bradley wrote: ↑Sat 07/08/2021 17:34 Oh I was looking at the 00z GFS run on the Windy app, is there somewhere better then that for looking at GFS data?

Based on what it seems to be telling you, anywhere else would be better. Meteologix is a good site.

Would be good to have a sticky post with all the best rated information address sites available..

Latest GFS has shifted the low 50km north, can see why it is now forecast to sea level tomorrow morning for Waimak north. Hopefully tonight's run can shift it back 50km south then anything could spark about Christchurch tomorrow! High chance near sea level in early hours of Monday morning though!

EC also has the low further north with moisture levels way down for mid-Canterbury, unfortunately for snow lovers this is rapidly beginning to fizz out…

Bradley wrote: ↑Sat 07/08/2021 19:48 EC also has the low further north with moisture levels way down for mid-Canterbury, unfortunately for snow lovers this is rapidly beginning to fizz out…

Yes the low centre is well further north on EC now, back where it was prior to it moving towards the GFS. I am thinking tomorrow's events will be even more around Waikari northwards for the significant snow. Still snow showers likely for the coast at level early Monday but I don't think Christchurch will get any great surprise tomorrow.

Water Vapour image at 7:30pm now showing the polar injected mid level streamer launching equatorward.

Cantab03 wrote: ↑Sat 07/08/2021 19:51

Bradley wrote: ↑Sat 07/08/2021 19:48 EC also has the low further north with moisture levels way down for mid-Canterbury, unfortunately for snow lovers this is rapidly beginning to fizz out…

Yes the low centre is well further north on EC now, back where it was prior to it moving towards the GFS. I am thinking tomorrow's events will be even more around Waikari northwards for the significant snow. Still snow showers likely for the coast at level early Monday but I don't think Christchurch will get any great surprise tomorrow.

I don't know where you get these ideas from. The cluster of depression centres from the GFS ensemble is very close to those of the EC ensemble, and both are very similar to what they produced 12 hours prior. You just can't take a single model run and say its moved without considering whether its still within the range of possible outcomes (i.e. the plus or minus error of the model or the "noise").

TonyT wrote: ↑Sat 07/08/2021 21:10


I don't know where you get these ideas from.

I agree Tony, the guidance has been in the models consistently for past 3 or 4 days now, it's at that time where one Suttle change doesn't mean anything to do with a significant change. It's time to wait, watch, grab some popcorn and let it happen.

Latest Satellite Image showing the system getting closer and building. Some rotation now evident. No centre core yet but wont be far away. First signs of event should be around Queenstown first i suspect. Temps only 3 deg there now.

I’m in Wanaka until next Thursday. When I landed earlier this afternoon the sky had that eerie feeling that something is gonna happen. If this storm plays out as models are picking then I don’t think we will see much in terms of snow down here, will just be bloody cold me thinks. Currently 2.9deg here with clear skies

TonyT wrote: ↑Sat 07/08/2021 09:37

Razor wrote: ↑Sat 07/08/2021 08:18 Certainly looks like the models are aligning and pointing towards the more drastic end of the spectrum. Interesting couple of days or so ahead

I trust Mrs Razor is safe somewhere?

Yes thanks Tony, they are well domiciled in Greymouth and ready to sit out whatever follows thans to the Gin Distillery in Reefton

3C at Thornbury now and dropping

Around 5°C at the moment, which is warmer than I left it last night; black-dark of course; seems overcast; dry.

Just started raining in Rakaia. Also raining in Methven township (just looked at my business security cameras).

A very quiet, calm morning in Ashburton. Not too cold either - 5 degrees.

Raining here in chch, 4 degrees

keep an eye on the barometer...a nice pressure drop across the region should drop the air temperature

Snow has just started falling in Staveley and on and off in Methven.

Has been raining here for a while, temp. slowly falling, 3.7°C now.

Orion wrote: ↑Sun 08/08/2021 08:03 Has been raining here for a while, temp. slowly falling, 3.7°C now.

I’m thinking tonight and tomorrow morning will be our best chance in town. I’m heading to work shortly (supermarket) and we all know what happens there when snow is mentioned!!

I see Niwa has posted a model showing some snow in the Waikato ranges

Snowing in Orari. I would imagine that’s quite low?? 100m?

darcyplumb wrote: ↑Sun 08/08/2021 08:21 Snowing in Orari. I would imagine that’s quite low?? 100m?

Yes that’s around 70m asl!!!

Bradley wrote: ↑Sun 08/08/2021 08:24

darcyplumb wrote: ↑Sun 08/08/2021 08:21 Snowing in Orari. I would imagine that’s quite low?? 100m?

Yes that’s around 70m asl!!!

Thought so. I don’t live there but the farmyard holiday park is there and have just said it’s started snowing.

Show time.....

Macquarie Island copped it overnight. The main cold shot area in the upper trough passed through there overnight, starts arriving into mid Canterbury early tomorrow morning.

That holiday park sits at 80 metres...temp dropping fast here in town!