NZ Weather Forum

dogmelon wrote: ↑Fri 17/11/2023 12:46 The southerly interface is quite pronounced in the radar today. Neat.

The symbolic insect line and cool air hitting the warm boundary.
Was certainly a very turbulent sky when it arrived, just a messy gust front but nice to see.
Moderate to strong SW winds with low cloud currently, much cooler on 13C it was 22C just before the change hit.
Rain just moving into mid Canterbury now.

An interesting system showing up for this time next week, cold upper air moving through might bring thunderstorms and hail to the region followed by heavy rain on the Saturday

Weather's turned rubbish earlier than expected here. I see we are in for a rainy N/NE system this weekend, El Nino not keeping them out entirely

Raining steadily in Geraldine at the moment, also cold. We have the fire going.

Mild day for a start off with today's maximum of 15.5C recorded this morning but then the southerly came through late morning with it coming onto rain in the early afternoon with some heavy falls between 3pm and 4pm. Becoming much cooler with the temperature lowering to single figures during the afternoon. 13.3mm for today.
Lots of red on the radar later this afternoon and evening, probably from heavy rain, not thunderstorms, moving from the SW, unless they were "Clayton"
thunderstorms, that is a thunderstorm without lightning and thunder that just produced hail or heavy rain?

Humid over the upper North Island tomorrow with cool upper levels, a day to watch for thunder. The general dew point will be around 17-18C.

Looking ahead to Monday a few afternoon thunderstorms look possible for east Auckland down into Waikato/ BOP in response to day time heating and convergence.
The South Island high country also has some thunderstorm risk on Monday from heating and convergence.
See how this looks on Monday morning.

Cloud cleared away overnight to become a blue dome morning and most of the afternoon until some scattered cloud moved across which made it a better day than yesterday for the Geraldine Festival.
Easterly winds today with today's maximum being 19C in sunny conditions from a low of 3.3C overnight.

Blustery NE gales out in the gulf this morning...

Lighter more convergent airflow over Northland this afternoon with some heating, the Northland hill country looks the place for thunder risk today.

Nev wrote: ↑Sun 19/11/2023 09:02 Blustery NE gales out in the gulf this morning...

I see the windsurfers are out at Orewa Beach right now:

http://www.windsurf.co.nz/windsurf_cam_orewa2.asp

Fine day initially but cloud gradually increasing during the afternoon with it becoming dull and overcast this evening with 0.2mm of drizzle falling to 10pm. Today's maximum here was 20.5C before it started to cloud over. Light south to SE winds.

The incoming southwester should produce good convergence this afternoon/evening, Waikato into SE Auckland look favoured for heavy showers/possible thunder.

I see MS also now have a high risk of T-Storms this afternoon/evening for parts of Auckland, Waikato, Coromandel Peninsula, and Bay of Plenty west of Rotorua, with a moderate risk that they could become severe, along with the odd possible small tornado.

Looking ahead to tomorrow Tuesday, more afternoon showers with the chance of isolated thunder for Waikato, Otago and Southland.

First day of the warmer season to reach 25C locally, dewpoint around 18. Few random small showers popping up on radar

haven't been on here a while. been slack lately. yes a humid day today. hoping for some thunder, but hopefully not too much rain.

That Summer feel today with the dp around 17C, reaching 24C at Grey Lynn.

Some intense showers have formed across parts of the Auckland region.

16mm here last 25 mins

spwill wrote: ↑Mon 20/11/2023 10:54 Looking ahead to tomorrow Tuesday, more afternoon showers with the chance of isolated thunder for Waikato, Otago and Southland.

Love your in put spwill. I see the potential thunderstorm activity did eventuate for the north island today. Still some storms around the BOP region now.

Some Christchurch stations recorded as much as 8mm overnight, but nothing measurable in St Albans area. Radar showed localised patches of precipitation around the city overnight.

Ended up with 26mm this afternoon, 25mm of that was in a 40 minute period. No thunder heard though sadly!

mikestormchaser wrote: ↑Mon 20/11/2023 18:08

spwill wrote: ↑Mon 20/11/2023 10:54 Looking ahead to tomorrow Tuesday, more afternoon showers with the chance of isolated thunder for Waikato, Otago and Southland.

Love your in put spwill. I see the potential thunderstorm activity did eventuate for the north island today. Still some storms around the BOP region now.

Yes, plenty of heavy showers developed today but not much thunderstorm activity.
I see there is some thunderstorm risk showing up for Canterbury Wednesday

Yes I was about to say the same thing RE: potential thunderstorm risk for Canterbury. Inland south Canterbury (wednesday) looks very unstable however looks to be a warming (cap) in the mid layers which may halt things.

Another belt of heavy showers for the north island tomorrow but not as promising as today for up their .

mikestormchaser wrote: ↑Mon 20/11/2023 22:31 Another belt of heavy showers for the north island tomorrow but not as promising as today for up their .

I laughed when I saw this post, Mike. "Not as promising for up thier" Up their what ?????
....anyway, 0.7mm of drizzle overnight and cloudy conditions for much of the day here but slowly clearing away during the afternoon and becoming fine this evening. Warm when the sun come out with 21C the maximum for today. NE breezes.
Interesting to see what Wednesday may bring?
Interesting forecast from MS for tomorrow saying low cloud and drizzle "Clagg" for the Canterbury Plains but saying it being fine for much of the day for Ashburton and Timaru with cloud moving in later ?

Big numbers for the mt peel area tomorrow. If this pulls off storms will be explosive! Maybe even a LP Supercell
7pm sounding inland timaru

There looks like a slight CAP at 800mb which could be the issue but otherwise see what happens