Good potential for snow
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For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
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For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
- NZstorm
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Correct Michael. Both moisture and cold air will be coming togeather over NZ, so potential exists for a severe winter outbreak over the South Island.
Just the potential at this stage. Will be interesting to see where the low centre ends up. Met Service have it in the Monday prognosis as just east of the South Island. This would bring snow into Canterbury (if that proves correct). Have to watch with interest.
Just the potential at this stage. Will be interesting to see where the low centre ends up. Met Service have it in the Monday prognosis as just east of the South Island. This would bring snow into Canterbury (if that proves correct). Have to watch with interest.
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I've just seen the latest UNISYS prognosis, and it has a cold southwesterly flow over NZ for most of the week, turning even colder southerly on Friday. It'll be interesting to see what happens if the predicted low crossing the Tasman coincides with any disturbance coming from the south.
Ben
Christchurch
Ben
Christchurch
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- TonyT
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Looks like the really cold air will stay down south again. We're going for rain in Canty on Monday night, some snow showers lowering to perhaps 500m during the morning on Tuesday then clearing. It does have the potential to get more exciting than that, but I wouldnt hold out a lot of hope. Could get quite wet in Otago, snow above 400m or so. I wouldnt hold out much hope for the end of the week, but the cycle might start all over again the beginning of the following week.
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Yes it is very low latitude (or higher depending on which way you interpret that) anticyclone lingering to the south of Australia.
What it delivers, lets see. I'm not to sure of my dry prediction now as the low moving south could drag in moist air, now that outflows look tilted, to feed the cold southerly airflow which should cover NZ next week.
JohnGaul
NZTS
Long live the French!
What it delivers, lets see. I'm not to sure of my dry prediction now as the low moving south could drag in moist air, now that outflows look tilted, to feed the cold southerly airflow which should cover NZ next week.
JohnGaul
NZTS
Long live the French!
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Tony, have you been basing your predictions on the AVN models? They seem to have been predicting a cold, but not very cold southwesterly over NZ up to Thursday. The other models, however, seem to be going for really wintry conditions - even going as far (GASP) as pushing a 520 thickness line onto the lower South Island by Friday.
BTW, when I mentioned a low crossing the Tasman, I was actually thinking of the possibility of a low/trough moving over the northern Tasman and then across the upper North Island later in the week. Should that system, if it eventuates, interact with very cold air coming from the south, things could get very interesting for the North Island.
Ben
Christchurch
BTW, when I mentioned a low crossing the Tasman, I was actually thinking of the possibility of a low/trough moving over the northern Tasman and then across the upper North Island later in the week. Should that system, if it eventuates, interact with very cold air coming from the south, things could get very interesting for the North Island.
Ben
Christchurch
- TonyT
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Yes Ben, both yesterday and today I feel that the temperature fields of the AVN or GFS as its called now, are the most probable of all the models. I tend to be rather sceptical of what GASP thinks the temps will do It still looks to me as if the really cold air will stay down south, snow to low levels in Southland and Otago with a risk of heavy falls, but only 4-500m for Canterbury. Could be quite a reasonable fall of snow on the Canterbury ski fields perhaps 20-30cm or more, and perhaps 20mm or so of rain on the Plains.
BTW, looks like the significant period of rain for Canterbury on Monday night will bump up the June monthly rainfall total in the last 12 hours of the month (to 9am Tuesday 1st July - might catch out the people who work on a midnight to midnight rainfall day).
There are now indications of very cold air moving northwards on Friday and Saturday, which if it stays true to predictions could bring snow to low levels in Canterbury and even the North Island. However, it will be a much drier system than the current one, so the accumulations may not be as great.
BTW, looks like the significant period of rain for Canterbury on Monday night will bump up the June monthly rainfall total in the last 12 hours of the month (to 9am Tuesday 1st July - might catch out the people who work on a midnight to midnight rainfall day).
There are now indications of very cold air moving northwards on Friday and Saturday, which if it stays true to predictions could bring snow to low levels in Canterbury and even the North Island. However, it will be a much drier system than the current one, so the accumulations may not be as great.
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Well a very warm day down south almost 20 degrees here in Alexandra
I bet it was even warmer up in Canterbury..
Interesting to see if the snow dose makes it inland, or just confined to the coast.
Looks like the southerly flow will last most of the week, then some big frost may set in, there is some very cold air under that polar HIGH.
I bet it was even warmer up in Canterbury..
Interesting to see if the snow dose makes it inland, or just confined to the coast.
Looks like the southerly flow will last most of the week, then some big frost may set in, there is some very cold air under that polar HIGH.