Good potential for snow

Archive of General Weather
Forum rules
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.

For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Good potential for snow

Unread post by NZstorm »

Models look good for snow to low levels in the south in the coming week.
Dean.
Posts: 1710
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 20:29
Location: Ashburton
Has thanked: 425 times
Been thanked: 525 times

Unread post by Dean. »

Looking forward to the cold snap,hopefully more of a southerly flow this time.
The skifield certainly needs the snow.
Freezing levels are forecast around 2700m this weekend with the northerly conditions,so possibly more rain for Mt Hutt :( .
Andy
Posts: 1424
Joined: Tue 27/05/2003 14:15
Location: Alexandra
Has thanked: 131 times
Been thanked: 63 times

Unread post by Andy »

This prefrontal rain must be of some concern for the ski feilds

Image

And then the snow comes and looks like falling to low levels

Image

Image

Note the charts will change
User avatar
Michael
Posts: 7210
Joined: Thu 27/03/2003 12:04
Location: Rainy Manurewa, Auckland - "City of Gales"
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 1 time
Contact:

Unread post by Michael »

There will be a lot of moisture in that low as it joins up with the WNW Trough under Australia -probably form a complex depression with several centres over NZ and anything can then happen ;)
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Unread post by NZstorm »

Correct Michael. Both moisture and cold air will be coming togeather over NZ, so potential exists for a severe winter outbreak over the South Island.
Just the potential at this stage. Will be interesting to see where the low centre ends up. Met Service have it in the Monday prognosis as just east of the South Island. This would bring snow into Canterbury (if that proves correct). Have to watch with interest.
Dean.
Posts: 1710
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 20:29
Location: Ashburton
Has thanked: 425 times
Been thanked: 525 times

Unread post by Dean. »

Fencepost's (Blue Skies weather) forecast for Mondays change is for a southwesterly and a brief period of wintry showers with snow to 500m in Otago and 700m in Canterbury,clearing Tuesday morning.
User avatar
Michael
Posts: 7210
Joined: Thu 27/03/2003 12:04
Location: Rainy Manurewa, Auckland - "City of Gales"
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 1 time
Contact:

Unread post by Michael »

BTW Whats the url for those maps please?
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Unread post by NZstorm »

Deano, the European charts suggest a dry southwester for Canterbury
(in contrast to NZ Met Service), with the wintry showers for the southern regions of Foirdland, Southland, South Otago. Snow levels should be quite low....I'm thinking 200m with sleet to sea level.
User avatar
Michael
Posts: 7210
Joined: Thu 27/03/2003 12:04
Location: Rainy Manurewa, Auckland - "City of Gales"
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 1 time
Contact:

Unread post by Michael »

The winter dry SWers in Christchurch are quite "nice" I reckon-they are still(Var Winds) and get unusal lee clouds :)
tich
Posts: 3467
Joined: Sat 15/03/2003 18:32
Location: Christchurch (St Albans)/Akaroa
Has thanked: 21 times
Been thanked: 91 times

Unread post by tich »

I've just seen the latest UNISYS prognosis, and it has a cold southwesterly flow over NZ for most of the week, turning even colder southerly on Friday. It'll be interesting to see what happens if the predicted low crossing the Tasman coincides with any disturbance coming from the south.

Ben
Christchurch
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18488
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1769 times
Been thanked: 1412 times

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Yes, Michael, the southerly can produce nice 'lenticular' or lee wave clouds over and around BP espcially in clearing weather.
Yes, Ben it does look like a cold week coming up. ECMWF models say the same. I'm still thinking Dry however.

JohnGaul
NZTS
User avatar
TonyT
Moderator
Posts: 2878
Joined: Thu 08/05/2003 11:09
Location: Amberley, North Canterbury
Has thanked: 352 times
Been thanked: 1146 times

Unread post by TonyT »

Looks like the really cold air will stay down south again. We're going for rain in Canty on Monday night, some snow showers lowering to perhaps 500m during the morning on Tuesday then clearing. It does have the potential to get more exciting than that, but I wouldnt hold out a lot of hope. Could get quite wet in Otago, snow above 400m or so. I wouldnt hold out much hope for the end of the week, but the cycle might start all over again the beginning of the following week.
User avatar
Michael
Posts: 7210
Joined: Thu 27/03/2003 12:04
Location: Rainy Manurewa, Auckland - "City of Gales"
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 1 time
Contact:

Unread post by Michael »

Large area of low pressure under Australia(looks hideous ;) ) The high pressure belt is at 20 deg South there and we may get a winter ridge in between the lows which can produce snow for the SI.
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Unread post by NZstorm »

Looks like a very wintry week on the way for NZ, with snow likely to sea level in Southland, South Otago, at times.

Currently Tuesday looks a likely day for wintry precipitation to be getting into Canterbury.

Thats how i see it.
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18488
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1769 times
Been thanked: 1412 times

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Yes it is very low latitude (or higher depending on which way you interpret that) anticyclone lingering to the south of Australia.
What it delivers, lets see. I'm not to sure of my dry prediction now as the low moving south could drag in moist air, now that outflows look tilted, to feed the cold southerly airflow which should cover NZ next week.

JohnGaul
NZTS

Long live the French!
User avatar
Michael
Posts: 7210
Joined: Thu 27/03/2003 12:04
Location: Rainy Manurewa, Auckland - "City of Gales"
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 1 time
Contact:

Unread post by Michael »

The anticyclone South Of Australia probably a cold one ie the lows have gone furthur north as theres another anticyclone up centred near Cairnes
tich
Posts: 3467
Joined: Sat 15/03/2003 18:32
Location: Christchurch (St Albans)/Akaroa
Has thanked: 21 times
Been thanked: 91 times

Unread post by tich »

Tony, have you been basing your predictions on the AVN models? They seem to have been predicting a cold, but not very cold southwesterly over NZ up to Thursday. The other models, however, seem to be going for really wintry conditions - even going as far (GASP) as pushing a 520 thickness line onto the lower South Island by Friday.

BTW, when I mentioned a low crossing the Tasman, I was actually thinking of the possibility of a low/trough moving over the northern Tasman and then across the upper North Island later in the week. Should that system, if it eventuates, interact with very cold air coming from the south, things could get very interesting for the North Island.

Ben
Christchurch
User avatar
TonyT
Moderator
Posts: 2878
Joined: Thu 08/05/2003 11:09
Location: Amberley, North Canterbury
Has thanked: 352 times
Been thanked: 1146 times

Unread post by TonyT »

Yes Ben, both yesterday and today I feel that the temperature fields of the AVN or GFS as its called now, are the most probable of all the models. I tend to be rather sceptical of what GASP thinks the temps will do ;) It still looks to me as if the really cold air will stay down south, snow to low levels in Southland and Otago with a risk of heavy falls, but only 4-500m for Canterbury. Could be quite a reasonable fall of snow on the Canterbury ski fields perhaps 20-30cm or more, and perhaps 20mm or so of rain on the Plains.

BTW, looks like the significant period of rain for Canterbury on Monday night will bump up the June monthly rainfall total in the last 12 hours of the month (to 9am Tuesday 1st July - might catch out the people who work on a midnight to midnight rainfall day).

There are now indications of very cold air moving northwards on Friday and Saturday, which if it stays true to predictions could bring snow to low levels in Canterbury and even the North Island. However, it will be a much drier system than the current one, so the accumulations may not be as great.
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Unread post by NZstorm »

Tony,
I suspect if the front is active enough over Canterbury to deliver 20mm rainfall to the plains, then snow levels will get quite low, below 400m.
The air coming up is quite chilly. Will watch with interest.
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Unread post by NZstorm »

Looks like Auckland and Northland will get alot of the weather from this cold southwester....squally showers with hail during the week.
Most of the snow will be down in the exposed Catlins area of south Otago/Eastern Southland.
User avatar
Michael
Posts: 7210
Joined: Thu 27/03/2003 12:04
Location: Rainy Manurewa, Auckland - "City of Gales"
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 1 time
Contact:

Unread post by Michael »

[quote="NZstorm"]Looks like Auckland and Northland will get alot of the weather from this cold southwester....squally showers with hail during the week.
quote]

So much for the so called "Winterless North" :( ---its better when we have frosts in winter :)
Should be called the "Sunshiny South" ;)
Andy
Posts: 1424
Joined: Tue 27/05/2003 14:15
Location: Alexandra
Has thanked: 131 times
Been thanked: 63 times

Unread post by Andy »

Well a very warm day down south almost 20 degrees here in Alexandra
I bet it was even warmer up in Canterbury..

Interesting to see if the snow dose makes it inland, or just confined to the coast.

Looks like the southerly flow will last most of the week, then some big frost may set in, there is some very cold air under that polar HIGH. :)
User avatar
Michael
Posts: 7210
Joined: Thu 27/03/2003 12:04
Location: Rainy Manurewa, Auckland - "City of Gales"
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 1 time
Contact:

Unread post by Michael »

Theres a double low under the south Island(one to the west) say it will spread snow showers to Otago and perhaps some may get to Akaroa and sleet to the south coast but I say the worse for you will come on Wednesday or Thursday as the colder southerlies spread in all areas
Dean.
Posts: 1710
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 20:29
Location: Ashburton
Has thanked: 425 times
Been thanked: 525 times

Unread post by Dean. »

Metservice are predicting widespread rain with some heavy falls for Monday night so you would think it would be active enough to spread inland to all areas.Well thats what they are forecasting,I thought that this front was supposedly more southerly than all the duds we have received so far?.
Dean.
Posts: 1710
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 20:29
Location: Ashburton
Has thanked: 425 times
Been thanked: 525 times

Unread post by Dean. »

Looking at the charts tonight,conditions look to turn more southeasterly over Canterbury on Monday night hence the Metservice severe weather watch for heavy snow over the Canterbury foothills.
Hey,but im no expert. ;)
Locked