Rain from Complex North-Tasman Lows rather than Simple NW/SW

[Willoughby]

I've noticed over the last year, Waikato northwards has been getting more and more rain from Lows developing in the north tasman and come down giving a 2-3 day period of slow-moving warm fronts.

Rather than... the 'normal' strong cold front incoming from the west, originating from the Southern oceans.

2 years ago we had a lengthy period of wetaher like this...

e.g. Monday: Frosty, cloud increasing. NW wind develops
Tuesday: Rain developing. NW wind.
Wednesday: Rain clears. SW or westerly change.
Thursday: Showers ease and fine spells develop, Fresh SW'erlies.
Friday: Fine and frosty, light southerlies/SW.
Saturday and sunday: Fine.

and so on... then the 'odd' lengthy HP system, and low bearing down from the NW.

We've had too much easterly and southeasterly winds so far this year.

What do others think... (esp. Aucklanders who share almost the same climate) Or am I inexperienced...

[Michael]

TOO MUCH SW TOO MUCH RAIN ALL FOR US

[spwill]

I've noticed over the last year, Waikato northwards has been getting more and more rain from Lows developing in the north tasman and come down giving a 2-3 day period of slow-moving warm fronts

But not much in the way of Lows over Summer/Autumn just gone.

Have seen little in the way of unstable Westerlies this Winter but they tend to happen more in Spring anyway. ECMWF shows unstable Westerly weather perhaps later next week.

[NZstorm]

I agree. This winter has been quite stable. Our normal winter rainfall pattern is convective, unstable westerlies. We havn't seen that this year yet. But there is plenty of time with a long spring ahead of us.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I agree. This winter has been quite stable. Our normal winter rainfall pattern is convective, unstable westerlies. We havn't seen that this year yet. But there is plenty of time with a long spring ahead of us.

August/September we have yet to go through plus October and November and possibly December +, though December would not be possibly as wintery as it was last year.
NIWAR says it's going to be mild this winter. I hope they are wrong as I hate mild winters

JohnGaul
NZTS

[tich]

though December would not be possibly as wintery as it was last year.

I very much doubt it would be - December 2004 was one of the coldest on record for NZ.

NIWAR says it's going to be mild this winter. I hope they are wrong as I hate mild winters

June's been and gone, and truned out to be -0.2C below normal. Some mild weather so far this month (20C max today in Napier), but several long-range models are now going for cold southerly conditions late next week.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I agree. This winter has been quite stable. Our normal winter rainfall pattern is convective, unstable westerlies. We havn't seen that this year yet. But there is plenty of time with a long spring ahead of us.

Latest ECMWF suggests a cold southerly winrty blast late next week

JohnGaul
NZTS

[Willoughby]

But not much in the way of Lows over Summer/Autumn just gone.

Very true.., though the Waikato Summer and early Autumn was marked by odd heavy downpours/t-storm, due to instability, hot temps and therefore high evapotranspiration rates.

Feeling like early spring today with high dewpoints and showers.

Another period of odd moist Easterlies and then dry Southeasterlies coming up.

[Manukau heads obs]

definately a change in pattern, with australia getting good rain, at times, from lows crossing right through NSW (as an example) , which are then re developing off the east coast of australia

that sort of pattern can happen alright at this time of year, the classic "low near lord howe island " (i.e that was as close as they used to be able to pin point it,LOL)

the sort of winter where northland gets alot of rain!

[Michael]

More Rain again for us overnight and the winds reached GaleForce early this morning then with horizontal Rain but have gone fresh W again with some fine periods now

[Michael]

Every Year we get the same duration of wet and windy weather ie if we get a "dry" winter the summer can often be horrid.I never known a year without a 6 month monsoon season in AKL whether it is from July to December or August to January

[Gary Roberts]

Every Year we get the same duration of wet and windy weather ie if we get a "dry" winter the summer can often be horrid.I never known a year without a 6 month monsoon season in AKL whether it is from July to December or August to January

Michael, I have to ask...are you an Afrikaaner? Just curious is all.

[Michael]

From N.Z born here but I know what is crap weather is and whats not and most of the people (75% at a guess) are from climates on this forum that havent even had winter.Yes cold is tolerable but we get constant nonstop rain and wind that appears to never cease

Every Year we get the same duration of wet and windy weather ie if we get a "dry" winter the summer can often be horrid.I never known a year without a 6 month monsoon season in AKL whether it is from July to December or August to January

Michael, I have to ask...are you an Afrikaaner? Just curious is all.

[Gary Roberts]

From N.Z born here but I know what is crap weather is and whats not and most of the people (75% at a guess) are from climates on this forum that havent even had winter.Yes cold is tolerable but we get constant nonstop rain and wind that appears to never cease Every Year we get the same duration of wet and windy weather ie if we get a "dry" winter the summer can often be horrid.I never known a year without a 6 month monsoon season in AKL whether it is from July to December or August to January

I just thought that since you constantly snipe at NZ and its weather you may have been an Effrekorner.

Seriously though, is there no way you can move to a more hospitable climate?

[tgsnoopy]

I just wonder why Michael seems to have weather so much worse than others from that area?

It would be interesting to see the statistics from a weather station at his house and compare it to the official metservice stats. Maybe he's in some weird microclimate that is prone to rain and gales?

I'm picking Michael is probably quite elderly too, as he always seems to post the temperatures in Fahrenheit (an old scale which was abandoned in the 70's, unless you are from the US).

I for one would like to see an official standard adopted for the reporting of such things as temperature, converting Fahrenheit to Celcius is tedious.

[Manukau heads obs]

i was in papatoetoe today, which is near manurewa
there was a light shower at one stage, but fine intervals otherwise
SW wind of 10 to 15 knots
not a bad day at all, max 14.5oC, which is normal for winter here
michael exagerates, always has

i am only 20 km in a straight line from manurewa on the other side of the manukau harbour, so you can check my site

[Gary Roberts]

I just wonder why Michael seems to have weather so much worse than others from that area?

It would be interesting to see the statistics from a weather station at his house and compare it to the official metservice stats. Maybe he's in some weird microclimate that is prone to rain and gales?

I think Michael is a Rain God. Like that guy from Douglas Adams' fourth book in the 'Hitchhiker's Guide...' trilogy, 'So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish'.

[Manukau heads obs]

WOW
this new tasman low is looking mighty now this morning
rain started here already
it has deepened alot now, nice very well organised frontal systems too!!

wow, a realy beauty

we could get some strong winds from this....

[C-Nimbus]

woohoo, i see what you mean Brian, I have just seen the last 24 hrs sat imagery in succession. Compared to last weeks one this one has undergone some quite significany changes in the last 12 hrs.

i see a cb line over coromandel and also just out to see off kaipara.....

fingers crossed for some fancy lightning over auckland tonight..

curse this never ending choice as weather that doesn't have a SW component to it and may even spawn the odd T/s and possibly small tornado why do we live in such a dynamic country


sheeesh

[Gary Roberts]

woohoo, i see what you mean Brian, I have just seen the last 24 hrs sat imagery in succession. Compared to last weeks one this one has undergone some quite significany changes in the last 12 hrs.

i see a cb line over coromandel and also just out to see off kaipara.....

fingers crossed for some fancy lightning over auckland tonight..

curse this never ending choice as weather that doesn't have a SW component to it and may even spawn the odd T/s and possibly small tornado why do we live in such a dynamic country


sheeesh

Lovely and fine here in Omarama. Down to -5.8° at 8:28 this AM. What do you predict being in store for us in the Mackenzie? More of the same I hope!

[Manukau heads obs]

if anyone is interested
i have a sat image animation here:
http://www.weather-display.com/windy/gb ... tpfile.gif

[Gary Roberts]

if anyone is interested
i have a sat image animation here:
http://www.weather-display.com/windy/gb ... tpfile.gif

So the NI's gonna cop it, while the SI remains clear?

[Michael]

Rain has arrived again Guess the fact it doesnt go away very often these days Hows the Sun capital Wellington and the south island dought

[Willoughby]

if anyone is interested
i have a sat image animation here:
http://www.weather-display.com/windy/gb ... tpfile.gif

Great animation Brian, is it possible you do that to the one hour interval satelite?

Some rain this morning and cold. 8c with light southeasterlies.

[C-Nimbus]

....heres the 12 'o' clocker...


grunty