(Possible)End of Week Wintery Outbreak (not quite sure)

ScottyD · Unread post by **ScottyD** » Mon 11/07/2005 13:31

I've just looked at some long range forecasts and come Thursday, Friday, it looks as though there is going to be plenty of cold air combined with some moisture for the south. Could this be the start of winter that we're all awaiting so eagerly?

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 11/07/2005 16:10

scottiedavies wrote:I've just looked at some long range forecasts and come Thursday, Friday, it looks as though there is going to be plenty of cold air combined with some moisture for the south. Could this be the start of winter that we're all awaiting so eagerly?

Don't think so

More anticyclones

When will it end

etc., etc., etc., .......

JohnGaul
NZTS

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Mon 11/07/2005 16:29

You will get your west to SW flows in Chch with lots of high/middle layer cloud with no wind or snow let alone much rain while we continually get stormy weather up here with monsoons and gales

ScottyD · Unread post by **ScottyD** » Mon 11/07/2005 16:41

i was looking at the weatherzone.com.au forecast charts. they're showing thickness to be around 524 on friday.then again they are aussie.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 11/07/2005 18:10

Far south of the country will get clipped by very cold air. Looks favourable for some snow on the Queenstown Ski fields and Mt Ruapehu this week.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Mon 11/07/2005 18:14

Psst John

atleast have some fiath in this SW cold blasts certainly look like they will bring some interesting weather come Fridayevening/saturday.
You are starting to sound like Micheal John plzz not another one

.
Looks like a good quick cold blast tomora with showers hail and slight chance of thunder but most of that will probly be from Otago south Canterbury and snow looks to be low 200m down south tomora.
Cheers
JASON.

You can just feel winter peeking those white flakes from behind the white clouds.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Mon 11/07/2005 21:20

scottiedavies wrote:i was looking at the weatherzone.com.au forecast charts. they're showing thickness to be around 524 on friday.then again they are aussie.

GFS model they use... from NOAA in the states.
I try to avoid looking at these maps as it takes weatherzone a wee while to process them and therefore they are already out of date since the new model run has already been calculated, which in turn, that will be too

Saturday looks like it will be the coldest day of the year so far in the south...
Highs:
Christchurch: 4c with late light snow likely and becoming very cold.
Queenstown: 0c with all day snow, severe frosts afterwards in Central Otago dependant on wind.
Dunedin: 2c and morning sea-level snow also
Invercargill: 3c on Friday with late snow, 2c on Saturday with all day snow.

Heaviest falls should be due on the West Coast about Fjordland

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Mon 11/07/2005 22:05

MetService are forecast hail and snow to 400m in Canterbury tomorrow. At least we're warned this time, unlike Sunday morning.

Heaviest falls should be due on the West Coast about Fjordland

I presume you're talking about snow. A very cold west to southwest flow is the one to give unusually low level snow to the West Coast, which is sheltered from southerlies. South Westland's already had a fall to quite low levels at the beginning of June.
These airstreams can also result in some spectacular cloud formations in Canterbury - like the northwest arch, but very cold and glaciated looking.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 11/07/2005 22:18

tich wrote: At least we're warned this time, unlike Sunday morning.

I was talking to Bob Crowder today and he said that MetService were well aware of the snowfall on Sunday morning and thought the did a good job in forecasting it and went a for a drive around the PortHills and saw the snow

I told him you were surprised and he said he expected it

JohnGaul
NZTS

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Tue 12/07/2005 06:22

I would say if Auckland is at a higher elevation it would snow here

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Tue 12/07/2005 08:41

500mb Thickness levels for chch only go done to 540 on friday as the southerly comes thru, but they are at 528 for todays southerly

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Tue 12/07/2005 09:21

Michael said

I would say if Auckland is at a higher elevation it would snow here

Currently 11C here, about as cold as it gets in AK in unsettled weather so we would need to be quite high up for a snow fall, may be 6 x the hieght of MT Eden.

ECMWF delays the very cold weather for the South later this week until early next week.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Tue 12/07/2005 11:41

was talking to Bob Crowder today and he said that MetService were well aware of the snowfall on Sunday morning and thought the did a good job in forecasting it and went a for a drive around the PortHills and saw the snow I told him you were surprised and he said he expected it

Snow was expected, but only down to about 600m (basically the higher peninsula hills) in the MetService forecast - it actually settled down as low as about 300m.

Fujita Phil · Unread post by **Fujita Phil** » Tue 12/07/2005 12:14

SNOWING!!! Hard here. Light intermittant showers all morning but this one has been going on for a while now. Sleet at sealevel, settling here at 200m.

Woke to snow at the top of Mt Cargill and Flagstaff (above 550m). After this one it should be about 250m

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Tue 12/07/2005 12:53

Stared off fine with another heavy frost in Chch. Still sunny, but cloud has now built up from the southwest with a moderate to fresh southerly wind.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Tue 12/07/2005 15:07

Some nice beafier showers moving in from south now and i also saw a small CB before poke it's head out of the other clouds getting darker too out there

perhaps a hail shower is coming still dry here but southerly cold 7C here dropped to coldest this year -6.2C this morning good frost some intersections were frosted too where cars hadn't Driven.

Cheers
JASON.

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Tue 12/07/2005 17:20

Fujita Phil wrote:SNOWING!!! Hard here. Light intermittant showers all morning but this one has been going on for a while now. Sleet at sealevel, settling here at 200m.

Woke to snow at the top of Mt Cargill and Flagstaff (above 550m). After this one it should be about 250m

Still fine here in the Mackenzie.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Tue 12/07/2005 23:41

Risk of snow in the south, lowering significantly...

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Wed 13/07/2005 08:39

Foggy Hamilton wrote:Risk of snow in the south, lowering significantly...

Not a cloud in the sky down here right now.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Wed 13/07/2005 13:14

Yeh we have waited for Winter for quite some time now us South Islanders can finally put a name to it.

Snow forecast to low levels tomora night in Kaikoura and Canterbury but iam guessing that means 200-300m and not sea level but Saturday,Sunday look really good with those cold southerlies and snow to low levels perhaps at night sea level snow or am i just egzadgurating?

.
Iam more set on Monday especially for the farr south could be heavy falls for the farr south and lighter falls further north.
Cheers
JASON.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Wed 13/07/2005 13:24

Mostly cloudy with showers and a moderate westerly here today.

Today was meant to be our fine break!

Rain developing tomorrow with strong N-NW, clearing friday.
Heavy rain and cold on Saturday, with light easterlies.
Late rain again Sunday and rainy again Monday.

hmmmmm

Could be some thunderstorms here in the north late tomorrow?

edit:
Tasman sea, SE Australia and the bight and below sure does look like a mess, with no distincitve cold fronts, warm fronts etc.

Fujita Phil · Unread post by **Fujita Phil** » Wed 13/07/2005 13:39

Doesn't look to promising for a snow day around here now... time will tell.

Balmy day here, shorts and t-shirt weather. A whole 14C with a low 39% at present, being fueled by a moderate NW

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Wed 13/07/2005 13:58

Should be some snow way up on the mountains etc but I don't think it looks likely to low levels for Canty and the Kiakoura area unless theres something I haven't looked at. I expect they'll take that out of the forecast but who know's! Would be cool to have some snow but I just don't think so unfortunately.

Cheers

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Wed 13/07/2005 18:53

but Saturday,Sunday look really good with those cold southerlies and snow to low levels perhaps at night sea level snow or am i just egzadgurating? .
Iam more set on Monday especially for the farr south could be heavy falls for the farr south and lighter falls further north.

MetService is going for rain and snow to low levels in the east of the South Island this weekend, but the latest models don't seem to support that outlook. Though an icy blast for the lower SI looks likely on Friday.

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Wed 13/07/2005 18:56

Yeah models arnt predicting much for the weekend, not sure what metservice are looking at!

On that note, Does anyone now what models they look at??

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(Possible)End of Week Wintery Outbreak (not quite sure)

(Possible)End of Week Wintery Outbreak (not quite sure)

Re: End of Week Wintery Outbreak