Lookin' Good

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Lookin' Good

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

BlueSkies Weather has it looking good from next Friday with lots of cold winds, snow on the hills and cold southerlies/easterlies, etc..
Hope it eventuates.
With all this fog, mist etc., and the unexciting weather we have been having lately, I hope, next WE outlook does something 'excitingly wintry' before spring.

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Michael
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Unread post by Michael »

I am sure we will-Look at data for the last 3 Octobers/Novembers ;)
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Unread post by TonyT »

Looks like a very unsettled period for most of the country from Friday onwards John, the models have several depressions developing near and around the country, so its pretty hard to come up with any definite forecasts, but somewhere is bound to get some heavy rain and strong winds out of it all, and maybe quite a few places. Doesnt look particularly cold at this stage, but you never know until nearer the time, given the potential for warm advection snow with depressions at this time of year.
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Lets wait and see.
Looks interesting though from models I've looked at this evening, colder maybe into next week ?

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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

normaly the first week in august gives us the stormiest weather for the year....
but not this year!
KR has heavy rain for auckland today (its beatifully fine here today)
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Unread post by NZstorm »

The thing about warm advection snow is that it tends to be a mesoscale occurance in NZ, so the traditional thickness models would'nt be a good predictor of it.

There is a bit of punch coming back into that sun now.
I have noticed Oak trees coming into leaf. Spring looks to be already here.
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Unread post by Michael »

The sun is now at +17 Deg declination now 35Deg up at miday-(in a months time it will be exactly 1/2 way up in the sky) at least in Auckland northwards :)
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Unread post by TonyT »

[quote="NZstorm"]The thing about warm advection snow is that it tends to be a mesoscale occurance in NZ, so the traditional thickness models would'nt be a good predictor of it.

My point exactly Steven. :)
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Raining in Chrischurch today, first rain for about 10days.
Not much tho',
**** this weather is boring


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Unread post by Michael »

We have had wonderful weather up here the last 5 or 6 days :) Not boring at all ;) (well if you like sunshine and able to be outdoors)
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Unread post by NZstorm »

One or two showers about Auckland today so the fine spell has ended.

The low over the north should produce plenty of rain for Northland and Coromandel. Oregraphic forcing into conditionaly unstable air is likely to produce localised high topped cb over these areas over the weekend.



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Turretted Cumulus over the AK area today. There was isolated weak cb also.
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Not Lookin' Good

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Well, the origional posting of this forum item was "Looking Good" but that hasn't eventuated as current weather pattern continue to send lows around the top of the North Island.
Looks like a week of easterly drizzle coming up with an anticyclone moving slowly east to the seas south of New Zealand.

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Unread post by Dean. »

Another fine warm day,spring is in the air!.
Hopefully next weeks easterly conditions that are forecast eventuate into more than drizzle.Blue Skies are still forecasting snow to 500-800m Monday and Tuesday.
Looks like a dry fast track in Dunedin tommorrow night .
Cheers.
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

http://ps.gen.nz/~hamgap/waipu.htm
shows wave clouds on the brynderwan hills, south of whangerei, as the low to the north gets more organised
this site now updated every 2 hours, and is quite exposed to the easterly/NE winds , coming straight out of Bream Bay
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Unread post by NZstorm »

Looks like there may be a return to the more usual disturbed WSW by the end of the week. Looks very much like showers and a cool southwester for the rugby at Eden Park next Saturday.

There is a bit of convective potential in the low over the north. The risk of Isolated heavy falls/thunderstorms in the north over the next day or two.
The amount of rainfall can be hard to predict in these type of situations. But as usual the Coromandel looks like its in for a soaking.
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Unread post by NZstorm »

By the way, Europe is experiencing one of its hottest and driest summers on record. I wonder if this is an indication for our coming summer.

Yesterdays max temps for Europe

http://www.uni-koeln.de/math-nat-fak/ge ... pazoom.gif
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Unread post by Michael »

In auckland you have to be kidding ;) When has Auckland got 35.5C ?let alone 30 is a struggle on the best of hot days

Perhaps east coast areas can "benefit" from such heatwaves if the indication lives up
NZstorm wrote:By the way, Europe is experiencing one of its hottest and driest summers on record. I wonder if this is an indication for our coming summer.
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Unread post by NZstorm »

Michael, I am talking in relative terms. Europe is a continent, so obviously the temperatures will get very high in a hot spell.

That low over northern NZ is generating some cb's/ts this evening.


http://www.weatherzone.com.au/currentwe ... te%20Image
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Unread post by NZstorm »

on that URL, click on NZ satellite pic in top right hand corner.
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Unread post by Michael »

It generally becomes more humid here if theres warmer airmasses this coming summer with higher night time temps than average
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Unread post by NZstorm »

Yes, I agree Michael. A humid summer can feel like a hot one although we rarely get 30C.
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Yes, it may be interesting to see what summer we get. I wouldn't bet on the European heatwave to have any indication here in NZ especially here in Canterbury, but then you may never know!

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Unread post by Michael »

We are way overdue for a dry/hot summer up here anyway ;)
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Unread post by NZstorm »

Summers of 97/98 and 98/99 where relatively hot.

February 1998 was warm...these temperatures where the average for the month.

Henderson 16C to 28C...extreme max 33.1C
Auckland Airport 18C to 27C...extreme max 29.1C

During this summer temperatures in excess of 35C where recorded in some parts of the country on a few days.
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Michael
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Unread post by Michael »

A 1977/78 type summer would be great to have again :)
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