NOT Lookin' Good

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Fri 15/08/2003 23:56

Dosen't look good for the North Island next week with a large low developing in the northern Tasman Sea. Lots of easterly wind and rain about for much of the North Island and some of the South Island.
Bluff might be the 'place to be' !

JohnGaul
NZTS

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Sat 16/08/2003 09:56

Many of the models seemed to be predicting a deep low to develop on a cold front during the middle of the week, resulting in a strong, wet easterly in the east from about Otago to Hawkes Bay. But it's really hard to predict where lows will develop and move (especially 4 or more days ahead), so there's hope yet that it won't be so bad here in Canterbury (that is if you don't like prolonged easterly rain). Anyway, NOGAPS isn't predicting this scenario in its latest prognosis - they predict a low to form, but to position itself to the northeast of the North Island, on Thursday.

Ben
Christchurch

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Sat 16/08/2003 10:08

It would be great for the skifields.
Fine morning again,a light westerly,some scattered high cloud and 12 degrees.
Cheers.

Manukau heads obs · Sat 16/08/2003 10:34

well, this latest front has pushed cool air and cloud right up too off brisbane, and a jet stream is now showing nicely, and quite far south, over queensland,...so looks like a good spot for a low to form, a lord howe island low
(just the like the old days)

GraemeWi · Unread post by **GraemeWi** » Sat 16/08/2003 12:40

There are some attractive looking Cbs out to the west of me at the moment:

Clickable thumbnails below-

In the 10 minutes since I took those images, the Cb on the left has matured fully and should fall apart shortly. Hopefully they will last a bit longer as the afternoon progresses.

Cheers,

G

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 16/08/2003 13:13

A showery day across Auckland but with good sunny periods in between.
And as Graeme's photos show, the odd well glaciated cb about.

I took this shot about a hour ago.

There are larger cb's than this out to the S SW of Auckland

And this morning while in the city I came across a very unusual scene in Auckland....snow on the ground.

But ofcoarse it was'nt coming in the traditional way

Truck loads of ice flakes being dumped on the street for a snow boarding competition today. Luckily the day has been cold but the odd heavy rain shower won't be good for them.

Manukau heads obs · Sat 16/08/2003 13:17

yes, i see some good ones off to the WSW of me too
Just had an old shower go through with a squall to 42 knots on the hill top

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 16/08/2003 15:11

Looking across to Eden Park(centre) from my place about 3pm today.
Fine over the park now but shower cloud adjacent. Weak cb. Should
be a shower or two during tonights game.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 16/08/2003 16:51

Just had a quite heavy shower with slight hail.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 16/08/2003 17:25

Cumulus congestus/cumulonimbus 5.15pm today

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Sat 16/08/2003 18:06

Im looking forward to some squally downpours during the rugby.
Better than the boring weather down this way,Its been weeks since the last decent rain.
Cheers.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sat 16/08/2003 18:50

Yes it would be nice if there was a squally shower during the game, even with a few thunderclaps thrown in! Maybe a flash?? not from a streaker tho!!
Nice photos from you Auckland fellas.
Nothing down here worth noting as what Deano said.
Just BORING BORING BORING
I am never going to stick my neck out again for thunder prediction in Canterbury ever again.
Might as well take up another hobby like golf or maybe make a hobby out of watching paint dry!!

JohnGaul
NZTS

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Sat 16/08/2003 19:05

I reckon I might join you John.
LOL

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Sun 17/08/2003 10:27

1-Definitely is

2-You should take up radio dxing instead

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: Just BORING BORING BORING
Might as well take up another hobby like golf or maybe make a hobby out of watching paint dry!!

JohnGaul
NZTS

Manukau heads obs · Mon 18/08/2003 13:13

this new north tasman low the latest grib model has it boming right over the upper NI!

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Mon 18/08/2003 13:17

be typical

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Tue 19/08/2003 15:03

It now looks like the low and associated easterly, after giving the north its usual drenching, will deliver the most rain to Gisborne and (at least northern) Hawkes Bay. I wouldn't be surprised if there was flooding up there. Down here in Chch, we should be braced for a few days of wet weather on Thursday and Friday, but without any heavy falls.

This was a change from earlier models which suggested a major deluge from eastern Otago northwards. It doesn't look like a cold easterly (though the high to the south still could drag up some cold air), but I'd guess exposed ski-fields should get some extra snow.

Ben
Christchurch

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Tue 19/08/2003 18:27

Inspite of it being Dry finally here today the high cloud thickened up all day and remained rather cold-Can tell when this sort of chill is in the air the rains not far away

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 19/08/2003 22:45

Light Sw this evening and the barometer is going up.
I don't think it gets cold in Auckland. It's just like saying it's cold in Brisbane, Australia when the temperature gets down to about 13C.
It would be cold in Auckland if the temperature got down to zero...

JohnGaul
NZTS

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Wed 20/08/2003 08:47

Hi John it feels like its colder when its wet and windy like 19 degrees with horizontal rain is "colder" than 12 degrees with sunshine and little wind or often at night here feels warmer than the windy daytime.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Light Sw this evening and the barometer is going up.
I don't think it gets cold in Auckland. It's just like saying it's cold in Brisbane, Australia when the temperature gets down to about 13C.
It would be cold in Auckland if the temperature got down to zero...

JohnGaul
NZTS