Unsettled in the north

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Sun 11/09/2005 22:08

I'll chuck in thursday for upper North Island!

GreggWard · Unread post by **GreggWard** » Sun 11/09/2005 23:31

In the Manawatu it was a beautiful blue-dome day, till around 3:30 pm when cloud build-ups from the eastern hills started occupying a couple of oktas of the sky.

A warm 21C high for Palmerston North resulted, today.

NZstorm wrote:
but t-storm risk seems low.
Solid cloud cover over the North island today, shut down the thunderstorm risk. We have had a few showers over Auckland this afternoon.

As for tomorrow, isolated afternoon thunderstorms possible over the North Island.

GreggWard · Unread post by **GreggWard** » Sun 11/09/2005 23:32

In the Manawatu it was a beautiful blue-dome day, till around 3:30 pm when cloud build-ups from the eastern hills started occupying a couple of oktas of the sky. A warm 21C high for Palmerston North resulted.

NZstorm wrote:
but t-storm risk seems low.
Solid cloud cover over the North island today, shut down the thunderstorm risk. We have had a few showers over Auckland this afternoon.

As for tomorrow, isolated afternoon thunderstorms possible over the North Island.

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Mon 12/09/2005 19:38

Looks like there were some cloud build ups today in inland north Island areas but just not enough for a thunderstorm. Tomorrow looks like another possible day of inland thunderstorms particularly in the Waikato, perhaps even a slightly greater chance. As long as temps get to 19 and dewpoints are 14 I'm guessing we'll see something, get ready Foggy!

Cheers

tgsnoopy · Unread post by **tgsnoopy** » Mon 12/09/2005 19:56

Cool, I've just finished charging the camcorders batteries, hopefully this time I'll have better luck. Oh, must go and put the tripod in the car.

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Mon 12/09/2005 22:31

Hope something happen's, in chances of all things my gut feeling tells me it's a less chance than what happened on the 25th August, tottot are only 45 which doesn't suggest much will happen but here's hoping, Apart from that other factors look ok. We'll have to wait and see!

Hmm, that high cloud may become a prob in the north. Will have to see where it is tomorrow.

Cheers

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 13/09/2005 07:11

Hmm, that high cloud may become a prob in the north. Will have to see where it is tomorrow.

Should cloud up during the day. Cirrus, Cu/Sc. Max temps 20C.

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Tue 13/09/2005 09:49

Things still look on track for some afternoon thunderstorms in the Waikato through to Lake Taupo, a little bit more confident now of something happening. But with all things something could stuff that up so it's not 100% or anything. Here's hoping!

Cheers

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Tue 13/09/2005 11:08

A lot of cloud around Ak today but it's warm, currently 19C, dew points are around 13C.

We are still waiting for rain.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Tue 13/09/2005 11:27

Fog/stratus slowly clearing in the region.. 15c atm. Was a massive 17c at 9am in fog free Port Taharoa on the Waikato seaboard, 12c here.

A very weird sight.. Mount Pirongia not visible from Hamilton due to low cloud and fog.. above it.. Great large cumulus piling over and beyond it!
A hazy but very nice view of the developing Cu, maybe Cb soon.

Views to the East and North obscured due to low cloud.

GraemeWi · Unread post by **GraemeWi** » Tue 13/09/2005 12:53

There are some great looking buildups around - I'm on the north shore - off to the south and west. Hopefully some action later this afternoon. Anyone know the altitude of the tropopause today? Since I've shifted jobs I don't have many of my bookmarks set up yet! ... but do have a spectacular view to the east and south from my desk

Cheers,

G

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Tue 13/09/2005 13:05

Yes, hard edged Cu through our SE, perhaps some heat showers down that way later.
Cloudy rather muggy 21C here.

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Tue 13/09/2005 13:17

Tropo looks to be around 10,500 metres, maybe 11,000 metres.

Hopefully some thunderstorms this afternoon in the Waiakto! $\:D/$

Cheers

Manukau heads obs · Tue 13/09/2005 14:31

barometer dropping surprisingly fast here now...

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Tue 13/09/2005 14:34

Heat showers SE of Auckland this afternoon.

Manukau heads obs · Tue 13/09/2005 14:53

alot of auckland smog blew over this way , after a windless night...
you can see the yellowish look in your photo spwill!

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Tue 13/09/2005 18:05

alot of auckland smog blew over this way , after a windless night...
you can see the yellowish look in your photo spwill

Just takes one calm day over Auckland these days and our sky gets an Orange tinge to it, pollution from Cars.

One or two Thunderstorms have developed over the central NorthIsland this afternoon.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Tue 13/09/2005 19:44

spwill wrote: One or two Thunderstorms have developed over the central NorthIsland this afternoon.

Well done to Aaron with his persistance of forecasting this event

Few strikes centered southern waikato

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Tue 13/09/2005 20:26

Thanks Foggy, the possible thunderstorms pulled off.

A little further south than first though but still in that Waikato / Lake Taupo area. Nothing big by the looks of things but a small thunderstorm none the less. It happened! horay!

There looks to be a chance tomorrow of exactly the same thing happening in the same areas although there is that high cloud to deal with so it may become a worry, I guess we'll just have to monitor the temps tomorrow and see what happens.

Also the chance of a few thunderstorms brushing the far north of Northland tomorrow around lunch as the front moves through.

Lightning map for today:

Cheers

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 13/09/2005 20:46

We are having an early start to the warm convective season over the North Island. Weather starting to feel a bit more like summer now with a bit of humdity there.

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Wed 14/09/2005 08:51

Things still look on track for afternoon thunderstorms in the Waikato again, I feel more weary though. That high cloud? What effect will it have? Grrggg, a hard day to predicte. Hopefully something pulls off again.

Good to see a few thunderstorms in Northland this morning, a bit earlier than I thought but still produced by that front.

Cheers

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Wed 14/09/2005 09:36

9am Radar shows the Front over Northland has become more active.

Aaron, well done on your TS predictions.

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Wed 14/09/2005 09:42

Thanks Spwill

Well the metservice have come out all guns blazing with a high risk for alot of inland North Island areas. Horay!! Hopefully it means something.

Even a low risk for inland Marlborough/Nelson! Yikes. I did note a little bit of cloud on the ranges in sat pics over that area yesterday. Maybe something a bit bigger this time? I wouldn't expect thunderstorms to pop up there though but haven't looked at any model info in depth or anything for that area so am unsure.

Cheers.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 14/09/2005 10:23

I think Aaron outperformed the Met Service with yesterdays predictions.

Yesterday there was a warm layer around the 4000m level that was holding the convection towers back over Auckland/Waikato. It shows up on yesterdays midday sounding. However the midnight sounding shows this 'cap' has weakened, hence it is fair to say there is a more unstable lapse rate today. Hopefully we get some good surface heating to trigger convection. Currently cloudy but bright in Aucks with temp 18C/dp15C.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Wed 14/09/2005 10:48

Yes well done again Aaron #2

Current conditions here are cloudy (8/8 with low and high cloud), 17c and a high dewpoint of 14.5c, light easterly.

So far today is cloudier, more humid and warmer... more favouring conditions I guess.

Attatched are CAPE and Lifted Index at 12pm NZST
You can certainly see those Northland severe-storms leaving!!

14.4mm in Whangarei in the hour to 9am.
Incidently an early start to the Darwin storm-season has occured