NZ Weather Forum

How's this for a prediction?

http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/rain-nz- ... 12-150.gif

2hpa spacing sure makes it look impressive
968 is a deep low for the tasman...well put it this way, have not seen one that
deep for a while now!
bring it on

Early days but there looks to be the chance of some wintry weather with this Low as ECMWF shows a High to the SW of NZ next weekend.

Bring on the wet westerlies!
Some rain developing tomorrow afternoon, wet Wednesday, showery Thursday, clearing cool Friday, and then a wet weekend with northerlies.

Mostly cloudy today but very warm, 21c with variable light winds

i saw that too spwill....

spwill wrote:Early days but there looks to be the chance of some wintry weather with this Low as ECMWF shows a High to the SW of NZ next weekend.

I've just checked the ECWMF model and cold weather does look likely this WE with hopefully some thunder in the south
Keep fingers, eyes and arses crossed

JohnGaul
NZTS

Heaviest rain from this low should fall from from Westport to Northland on Saturday night, being suggested by GFS.
Then on Sunday, a change to to strong gusty northwesterlies with showers and a high risk of thunderstorms for Taranaki northwards, lots of cooling aloft expected. Modelled LI and CAPE not very helpful.

NGP model predicting this a day later than GFS. ECMWF is on time with GFS, but it's then suggesting a change to cold southwesterlies over NZ late Sunday as John has suggested.

Forecasted rainfall amounts from this low, mostly falling on Saturday night: (relief is here!)
Auckland 49mm
Tauranga 63mm
Hamilton 88mm
New Plymouth 100mm
Wellington 37mm
Nelson 88mm
Christchurch 34mm
Dunedin 68mm (Strong cold southeasterlies bring it on Sunday)

Update.. GFS just updated and it's forecasting significantly more rain for Wellington, Nelson, Westland, but a lot less for South Island East Coast

Slightly less for Taranaki northwards and it's closer to Sunday morning than Saturday evening/night

T-storms for Northern districts still look likely

On Saturday, a low should deepen over the Tasman Sea and a northerly flow spread over New Zealand with some rain likely in western areas. The low should cross the North Island on Sunday bringing a period of heavy rain to areas exposed to the north. Rain may reach warning amounts in the ranges from Taranaki to East Cape and about the Coromandel Peninsula.

from met service site
http://www.metservice.co.nz/

Horowhenua here...

Fully overcast looking out to the Coast... Havent seen that for weeks...

ECMWF now does not now have it as being as much a S as now a SWerly, so it wont be as much snow in it after all now..

latest met service severe warning out
http://www.metservice.co.nz/default/ind ... key=190600

some rough spring weather coming our way by the sounds (return to more "normal" conditions

Tasman Sea is nice and electric at the moment, will be until Sunday I think...

Anyhoo, expect flooding in some areas, especially western this coming Sunday,
more storms especially on this day for Taranaki northwards. Rain Friday night, too. Showers between.

Foggy Hamilton wrote:Tasman Sea is nice and electric at the moment, will be until Sunday I think...

Anyhoo, expect flooding in some areas, especially western this coming Sunday,
more storms especially on this day for Taranaki northwards. Rain Friday night, too. Showers between.

Yes well when National wins on Saturday night, we can see more storms brewing in all fronts,especially from the Labour opposition.
Brash,Bush,Michael...who else do we want to rule the world?

JohnGaul
NZTS

could be a hum dinger NWer here saturday nigth or sunday morning
any of you auckland chaser want to come out here on the wild west coast and experience hurricane force winds?
LOL

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Yes well when National wins on Saturday night, we can see more storms brewing in all fronts,especially from the Labour opposition.
Brash,Bush,Michael...who else do we want to rule the world?

JohnGaul
NZTS

I don't think I've ever seen such a concerted media effort to boost one political option over others as we've seen this time round.

Not since the FOX Network hijacked the 2000 election for bubblebrain, and even then FOX was a lot less blatant about their efforts to get their man into power than the NZ media (TV One/One News, in particular).

I guess that's one of the results when you criticse the ridiculously over-inflated salaries paid to a painted doll (with over-inflated ego) for reading off a teleprompter.

Now, back to the weather...it's looking rather grey here right now. I'm not conceding snow to the MetService yet, but we're going to get some rain for sure, I'd say.

I don't think I've ever seen such a concerted media effort to boost one political option over others as we've seen this time round.

Not since the FOX Network hijacked the 2000 election for bubblebrain, and even then FOX was a lot less blatant about their efforts to get their man into power than the NZ media (TV One/One News, in particular).

Listen to 1ZB Newstalk(most people here on 1080,1098,1044,1296,1035 covers most here) and hear the one sided bigoted propaganda

Back to a boring pattern of west and just had some SW Gales today with driving Rain

Michael wrote:I don't think I've ever seen such a concerted media effort to boost one political option over others as we've seen this time round.

Not since the FOX Network hijacked the 2000 election for bubblebrain, and even then FOX was a lot less blatant about their efforts to get their man into power than the NZ media (TV One/One News, in particular).

Listen to 1ZB Newstalk(most people here on 1080,1098,1044,1296,1035 covers most here) and hear the one sided bigoted propaganda

Back to a boring pattern of west and just had some SW Gales today with driving Rain

The ZB network is extremely pro-Nat.

Finally the golden weather here over today, very small amount of overnight rain, now cloudy-bright.

Here its one of those Auckland days everyone describes..Hot and sunny one minute..cloudy the next...Gale force winds and rain in between..at least its not cold today

Do people stil Listein to ZB?? lol
Media in general is pro-Labour, (due I think think to the unions they belong to) just watch TV and you will know.

I see the MetService have severely downgraded the forecast: "...and possibly small amounts of snow falling on the higher passes and roads."

Quite a change from snow to very low levels/sea level!

03 Stormchaser wrote:Do people stil Listein to ZB?? lol
Media in general is pro-Labour, (due I think think to the unions they belong to) just watch TV and you will know.

I listen to ZB most of the time.. But it is not pro-national.
Toe Henare was in NZ First but has turned against Winston, Barry Wilson is on the Progressive's list. All of the other talkback hosts seem pretty balanced. Well said Gary there, quite true!

Day of showers, heavy in the morning has eased with fine spells now , 17c

Lots of strikes being picked up just off shore, NW of Taranaki.. and a few off Raglan.
MetService are pretty much on the button.

The atmosphere remains unstable in the west of both islands during today,although it should stabilise a little south of Raglan during the day. Bands of heavy showers lie in the Tasman Sea, and a few thunderstorms are possible as they sweep across central/western parts of the country during the day. A moderate risk of thunderstorms has been posted for western North Island areas from Raglan down to the Kapiti Coast, also for Buller and western Nelson. Squally wind gusts are likely with any thunderstorms, also small hail.

yes, lightning around taranaki and up the coast a little and around Huntly through to the Hauraki plains.. picking up a bit now...

If anyone is looking at the Auckland Tracker Java viewer, for some reason it is showing strikes about half the distance they should be! the main screen image is ok.. I'll look into it as soon as I get home.. very excited about this weekend

yes ricky there are strikes being picked up now.

Attached is a 10 am ish sat image showing a couple of nice active cb lines, with good cirrus anvils being directed by jet stream flows.

Should get into the waikato anyway, and hopefully one may even get up to here.......

and yes this weekend could be awesome.......bola revisited ???