Thundertorms Cantab on 22/09/05, North Island to later on
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Thundertorms Cantab on 22/09/05, North Island to later on
Well maybe, well see. Tottot and all that stuff over 50 (GFS showing 55 over Cantab). Cold air -27C @ 500mb passing over in the afternoon. Light winds at surface etc. I like the look of the skew-t profile for tomorrow.
I'm not sure how that southerly will affect things tomorrow, is it going to be a bit more than a light change and brings the temp down? Is it going to bring in lots of cloud so convection can't happen? We'll see.
Ideal situation is that a few showers clear by afternoon with fine periods increasing and afternoon heating produces a few inland storms, the idea being that the few showers in the morning lifts the dewpoint. But there could be too much cloud and not enough moisture about etc and nothing will happen. We'll see. Looks a better chance than my last prediction!! Lets just say that.
Also up north looks like there could be a few storms in western areas as that fron moves up the western side of NZ.
Cheers
I'm not sure how that southerly will affect things tomorrow, is it going to be a bit more than a light change and brings the temp down? Is it going to bring in lots of cloud so convection can't happen? We'll see.
Ideal situation is that a few showers clear by afternoon with fine periods increasing and afternoon heating produces a few inland storms, the idea being that the few showers in the morning lifts the dewpoint. But there could be too much cloud and not enough moisture about etc and nothing will happen. We'll see. Looks a better chance than my last prediction!! Lets just say that.
Also up north looks like there could be a few storms in western areas as that fron moves up the western side of NZ.
Cheers
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Nothing going to happen down here, except for a few spits of rain. New Plymouth and Taranaki will be in for storms.
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Yes, surface temps too cold over the east of the South island for any convective potential to be realised.
Over the North Island conditions are borderline for thunder. Surface air does look a bit on the cool and dry side though but upper air temps are certainly cold enough for deep instability. 500mb -25C. We have showers in the Ak vicinity this morning from low topped cbs.
Over the North Island conditions are borderline for thunder. Surface air does look a bit on the cool and dry side though but upper air temps are certainly cold enough for deep instability. 500mb -25C. We have showers in the Ak vicinity this morning from low topped cbs.
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There is some weak CU out there so some slight instability but i don't think we will get any thunderstorms perhaps a heavy shower later on. .
As for you North islanders especailly in the west looks much better this afternoon/evening.
As of Sunday 25th Septemeber could be slight chance of thunder here as the southerly moves through about midday what others think? .
Cheers
JASON.
As for you North islanders especailly in the west looks much better this afternoon/evening.
As of Sunday 25th Septemeber could be slight chance of thunder here as the southerly moves through about midday what others think? .
Cheers
JASON.
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Way to cloudy for anything to happen, oh well. Don't you just hate it when you've got favourable conditions up above something at the surface stuffs it up and when you've got favourable conditions at the surface something up above stuffs it up! lol. Oh well..... roll on next storm opertunity whenever that is.
Cheers
Cheers
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Wednessay 28thAaron J Wilkinson wrote:Oh well..... roll on next storm opertunity whenever that is.
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Had a short lived shower pass over before, 1mm max though
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JohnGaultich wrote:a brief light shower about 7pm; nothing else. Now sunny this morning with lingering cloud to the north and east.
NZTS
I only recorded 'a few drops', no amounts of rain/drizzle as forecasted by the weather forecasters.
Fine day today apart from breezy cool EnE.
Some interesting Cu forms late morning.