Thundertorms Cantab on 22/09/05, North Island to later on

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Thunder
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Thundertorms Cantab on 22/09/05, North Island to later on

Unread post by Thunder »

Well maybe, well see. Tottot and all that stuff over 50 (GFS showing 55 over Cantab). Cold air -27C @ 500mb passing over in the afternoon. Light winds at surface etc. I like the look of the skew-t profile for tomorrow.

I'm not sure how that southerly will affect things tomorrow, is it going to be a bit more than a light change and brings the temp down? Is it going to bring in lots of cloud so convection can't happen? We'll see.

Ideal situation is that a few showers clear by afternoon with fine periods increasing and afternoon heating produces a few inland storms, the idea being that the few showers in the morning lifts the dewpoint. But there could be too much cloud and not enough moisture about etc and nothing will happen. We'll see. Looks a better chance than my last prediction!! Lets just say that.

Also up north looks like there could be a few storms in western areas as that fron moves up the western side of NZ.

Cheers
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Aaron Wilkinson
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

dunno about tomorrow,after the events of the recent weather it should prove boring again.
Have to wait until something gives us a more 'punch' in the weather.
In the meanwhilst looks as tho' Rita is going to have as much 'punch' as what Kartina did in the Carribean.
Watch out Texas :( :oops:
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Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

Nothing going to happen down here, except for a few spits of rain. New Plymouth and Taranaki will be in for storms.
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Unread post by NZstorm »

Yes, surface temps too cold over the east of the South island for any convective potential to be realised.

Over the North Island conditions are borderline for thunder. Surface air does look a bit on the cool and dry side though but upper air temps are certainly cold enough for deep instability. 500mb -25C. We have showers in the Ak vicinity this morning from low topped cbs.
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Unread post by spwill »

A cold day here,12C with light showers about. Melbourne Weather :x
Air looks dry for Thunder, Dew point just 8C here.

Need a Tasman Low to bring our warm weather back.
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Storm Struck
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Unread post by Storm Struck »

There is some weak CU out there so some slight instability but i don't think we will get any thunderstorms perhaps a heavy shower later on. ;) .
As for you North islanders especailly in the west looks much better this afternoon/evening.
As of Sunday 25th Septemeber could be slight chance of thunder here as the southerly moves through about midday what others think? :? :) .
Cheers
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Unread post by spike_01 »

Getting heavily overcast here now after a clear morning... And warm... 8)
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Michael
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Unread post by Michael »

Skies now gone 8/8 with Rain threatening and the winds are now up to GaleForce :evil: :cry: :( :-({|=
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Unread post by Willoughby »

Mostly cloudy today with showers, heavy recently with freshening westerlies 14c

Pretty dismal, hopefully making up with thunderstorms tonight with the passage of a trough nearing Taranaki now
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Unread post by spike_01 »

Rain starting and 100 % cloud like this... 8)


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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Michael wrote:Skies now gone 8/8 with Rain threatening and the winds are now up to GaleForce :evil: :cry: :( :-({|=
JohnGaul
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...that's nice :D
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Unread post by Willoughby »

Rain band has arrived now and should reach Auckland soon, should get 11mm from it (here)
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Unread post by Thunder »

Way to cloudy for anything to happen, oh well. Don't you just hate it when you've got favourable conditions up above something at the surface stuffs it up and when you've got favourable conditions at the surface something up above stuffs it up! lol. Oh well..... roll on next storm opertunity whenever that is.

Cheers
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Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

Aaron J Wilkinson wrote:Oh well..... roll on next storm opertunity whenever that is.

Cheers
Wednessay 28th
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spike_01
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Unread post by spike_01 »

Wall to wall blue again... :roll:
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Unread post by spwill »

Woken by heavy showers at 3am, now fine with a cool SW breeze, 15C.

Warmer weather on the way next week. :D
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Unread post by Willoughby »

Mostly fine here now after the clearance of overcast Sc, 16c & gentle southwesterly :D

12mm overnight.
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Unread post by Storm Struck »

Hmm fingers and arses crossed could be thunder tomorrow :? ;) .
Thats all i wil say from here.
CHEERS
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Jasestrm wrote:Hmm fingers and arses crossed could be thunder tomorrow :? ;) .
Thats all i wil say from here.
CHEERS
JASON.
JohnGaul
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I think you'll have to cross more than that, Jase ;)
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Unread post by tich »

Hmm fingers and arses crossed could be thunder tomorrow .
Forecast rain hasn't yet arrived in central Chch, though 6pm radar shows drizzle obviously in some other parts of the city.
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Unread post by jeffsweather »

tich wrote: Forecast rain hasn't yet arrived in central Chch, though 6pm radar shows drizzle obviously in some other parts of the city.
A few spots on the ground in Hillmorton with a northerly breeze. 10.1C.
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Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

Had a short lived shower pass over before, 1mm max though
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Unread post by tich »

A few spots on the ground in Hillmorton with a northerly breeze. 10.1C.
Ditto - a brief light shower about 7pm; nothing else. Now sunny this morning with lingering cloud to the north and east.
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Unread post by spike_01 »

Overcast and boring in the Horrible Nua... 8)
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

tich wrote:
a brief light shower about 7pm; nothing else. Now sunny this morning with lingering cloud to the north and east.
JohnGaul
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I only recorded 'a few drops', no amounts of rain/drizzle as forecasted by the weather forecasters.
Fine day today apart from breezy cool EnE.
Some interesting Cu forms late morning. :)
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