Rain and Thunderstorms: Upper North Is 30th-3rd

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Thu 29/09/2005 15:49

Looks like northern Taranaki will see the rain first tomorrow evening as northerlies pick up, but remaining mostly clear over the rest of the North Island. (Maybe some late showers in Auckland)

Saturday should see rain or showers move up from the WSW with tending northwesterlies at surface.

Showers then becoming thundery on Sunday, especially Waikato and possibly Auckland, winds tending northerly. (CAPE up to 300j/kg, decent CINH to the west of -40 and LI down to -2 here in the Waikato with solid moisture bases) Thinking now, Auckland may miss out completely as a SW wind may sweep everything away from the city, going by the latest GFS run.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Thu 29/09/2005 16:04

Potentials of Hastings to reach 26-27c tomorrow , but only if the sea breeze doesn't develop

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Fri 30/09/2005 10:29

Heavy rain warnings now in place for Southwestern districts and even gale warnings for Eastern regions.

Milford was having a very localised fohn wind at 9am, 18c there with 32%RH, but is 16c now with a NE breeze.

Mostly sunny here, 16c, dp 12c with lazy northeasterlies

1st rain band moving in soon, or is it just high cloud?

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Sat 01/10/2005 14:14

Periods of rain today, 15c and light winds

What do you Aucklander's make out of the 2pm RR!!??

Looks like Brian will get some big downpours?

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sat 01/10/2005 14:30

Looks like Brian will get some big downpours

Yes foggy, some locations could get some heavy rain.
Overcaste with light rain here, 18C, dewpoint 13C.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Sat 01/10/2005 15:40

Foggy Hamilton wrote:What do you Aucklander's make out of the 2pm RR!!??
Looks like Brian will get some big downpours?

Ho Hum seen it so often

Manukau heads obs · Sat 01/10/2005 15:48

been away down country...to a wedding on the east coast wairapa.....
just home now...
yes, very heavy rain a coming by the looks, the worst migth end up just south of me, i.e waiuku
i.e keep an eye on the waiuku station

took a web cam photo of mt ngarahoe as drove past, central NI...some ash on its side...its waking up...

also had 50 knot classic pressure NW winds where we were last sunday (Pirongahau, sotuher hawkes bay)

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sat 01/10/2005 18:41

Manukau heads observer wrote:
took a web cam photo of mt ngarahoe as drove past, central NI...some ash on its side...its waking up...

JohnGaul
NZTS

...that's nice

..a bit of an eruption looming ????

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Sat 01/10/2005 19:08

and even gale warnings for Eastern regions.

What gales? None here in Chch (just fresh winds overnight and this morning), but apparently some other South Island areas (inland I believe) got blasted. Looked rather unstable early this afternoon, with some shower activity visible inland (towards Mt Hutt), but nothing around Chch.

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Sat 01/10/2005 20:34

how long has it been since that one erupted???

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Sat 01/10/2005 20:40

Wasnt that one but Ruapehu was in 1995-96

squid wrote:how long has it been since that one erupted???

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Sat 01/10/2005 20:59

squid wrote:how long has it been since that one erupted???

It erupted 45 times in the 20th century, making it one of the world's most active volcanoes in that period. It last erupted in 1977. Fumaroles exist inside the inner crater and on the rim of the eastern, outer crater.

Manukau heads obs · Sat 01/10/2005 21:57

i do know that the seismograph shows lots of (small) earthquakes going on at the moment...there is a web site...not sure what the url is...

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sun 02/10/2005 00:45

This wasnt really big enough to put a post up on but however here goes.
Around 1pm this arvo when the SW change arrived we had a few brief light showers which were not forecasted and during that time I spotted a short lived FUNNEL CLOUD it was small and i at first thought it was just scud but yes it was a very small funnel i quickly gt insdie to grab my camera by the time i came out it was pretty much gone GUTD

but anyway this is what i managed.
Not bad for first day of storm season be interesting to see if anyone else seen it in North canty.
By the way the reason it was so late being posted is beacause I was out tonight.
Cheers
JASON.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Sun 02/10/2005 05:19

Funnel clouds eh.. always so many in densely populated places aye?

Persistant rain here since about 2pm, had an hours break before 9pm with no rainfall, some heavy falls since. Wettest has undoubtedly occured here once again -Though it looks like Brian's farms have been well dealt to as well

More on the way today with possible thunderstorms, forecasts ahead look pretty wet until Saturday with wet westerlies - typical spring showers.

Some activity shown here at Ngauruhoe.. http://www.geonet.co.nz/
This image represents one day's recording of the seismometer located on the south-western flank of Mount Ngauruhoe. Each horizontal line represents 30 minutes, the vertical lines are spaced one minute apart. The time at the very bottom right hand corner of the recording is displayed at the top of the image. The trace will appear red if the signal has been clipped; this is to stop the current line overwriting too much of the surrounding image.

Oh and if you ever have the chance to walk the great Tongariro Crossing, you MUST climb Ngauruhoe! It really is amazing

Manukau heads obs · Sun 02/10/2005 07:10

oh, yes, heavy rain at the farm site, 28mm total, around 3 to 4am
4am rain radar shows it alright
only got the edge of that rain here..
new low that has formed , forming nicely...more rain today ...good for farmers at least (after the driest august on record)

Manukau heads obs · Sun 02/10/2005 08:28

photo of the light ash deposit.....or is it?
there is a small plume of smode coming from that SE edge ridge line...where the ash starts, up on the lip down from the top..

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 02/10/2005 08:41

oh, yes, heavy rain at the farm site, 28mm total, around 3 to 4am

Thats a good dumping of rain.

NZWP1200 sounding indicates deeply unstable air. So the rainfall is convective.

And yes, that low in the Tasman has formed nicely with quite an active front on it decending on us. Front should be here by early afternoon.

Tomorrow Monday, looks a likely thunder day for the North Island.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sun 02/10/2005 10:20

Dewpoint at the Airport is 15C so some moist air over us . Should be some downpours with that Front.

tgsnoopy · Unread post by **tgsnoopy** » Sun 02/10/2005 10:34

I doubt what you saw on the seismograph recording was in fact seismic activity, much more likely to have been noise on the radio link back to the recorder in Wairakei in my opnion.

I also doubt that was ash on the side of the cone too.

If it is in fact active, I'll be down for a look at my first opportunity once I see confirmation

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Sun 02/10/2005 10:48

Interesting article here on Ngauruhoe and Radioactive dating failure.

http://www.answersingenesis.org/creatio ... dating.asp

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Sun 02/10/2005 10:48

had a band of rain come through this morning fomr 8 30 till 9 30 dropped 6mm of rain rain has eased for not but heavy sky still remains with the baro dropping juts a little bit to 1004 looking good for further heavy rain and thunderstorms esp 2morow

GraemeWi · Unread post by **GraemeWi** » Sun 02/10/2005 11:09

03 Stormchaser wrote:Interesting article here on Ngauruhoe and Radioactive dating failure.

http://www.answersingenesis.org/creatio ... dating.asp

Caution - that website is noted for misquotes and pseudoscience. Google the author.

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Sun 02/10/2005 11:39

GraemeWi wrote:
03 Stormchaser wrote:Interesting article here on Ngauruhoe and Radioactive dating failure.

http://www.answersingenesis.org/creatio ... dating.asp
Caution - that website is noted for misquotes and pseudoscience. Google the author.

In that site's banner: Answers in Genesis: Upholding the Authority of the Bible from the Very First Verse

Well it must be true then.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 02/10/2005 11:45

If there was some ash coming out of Ngauruhoe I'm sure we would have heard about it in the media. Ash would be very significant and amount to an eruption of sorts.

Can see large T/cu Cb to west of here. I'm sure that is the front.
If we could get an hour of surface heating in ahead of the front, that would provide enough destabilsation for thunderstorms. But any sun today might be wishful thinking.