Boring Weather Ahead ?????

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Fri 30/09/2005 20:44

JohnGaul
NZTS

Tomorrow is the official NZTS start of the oncoming thunderstorm season.
However it looks to be a bit of an non-event this season...
...or will it be ??

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Fri 30/09/2005 21:15

It is?! Cool!

Can you conclude any thoughts John as to what we might expect from the weather we've had recently or anything?

Cheers

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Fri 30/09/2005 22:23

Tomorrow is the official NZTS start of the oncoming thunderstorm season

Eastern South Island Storm season starts when the Sea breezes start up properly.

Might see some storms over the North Island Sun, Mon and Wendsday.

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Fri 30/09/2005 23:41

Cool!

Anyway!

I've put some frames together from John's tornado chase on the 27th of October 2002 to see if I can get a pic out of it at all. I've managed something but it's pretty crapy, best I can manage at the moment. It doesn't show the proper height of the cloud due to the way the video camera is looking at the top of the cloud at a different angle then what the angle is when filming at surface level. So things are a bit skewed.

This is just the pic if you like and here's a second showing the different parts.

The first big oval on the left is the Mesocyclone (atleast I think it is!!). The small oval within it is the tornado (Yeah I know, it's hard to see but it's a zoomed out shot. It's definately there!). Then the oval on the right is the inflow / tail cloud.

Would anyone agree with what I've said and/or does it make you think at all this could well of been a supercell?

Cheers

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 01/10/2005 07:50

Well done on putting that photo togeather Aaron.

I am assuming the photo was taken looking south. The area that you suggest is the inflow looks like the flanking line to me. The inflow into this storm would surely be from the east or northeast. A tail cloud would point in that direction.

That tornado was quite weak. A few tree tops damaged from memory. A weak tornado points to this event being a landspout. (non supercell).
I am thinking this storm is likely just a multicell rather than supercell.

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Sat 01/10/2005 09:28

Having watced the video a couple of times, im pretty sure there was a mesocycle of which the tornado came from. Also this tornado went through mostly farm land, almost impossible to rate it on the fujita scale as no buildings etc were in its path. So damage was minimal

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Sat 01/10/2005 09:41

Your reference to damae on trees NZstorm I think is associated with another tornado, same day but at Taitapu:

A tornado occurred at Taitapu, near Lincoln, southeast of Christchurch on the 27th, damaging trees in the area, with another near Halswell on the same day.

From NIWA

Also add:

Extreme weather with hail and a tornado hit Canterbury on Sunday, 27 October, when golf-ball-sized hailstones dented cars. The hail blocked stormwater pipes at a shopping mall and picture theatre in Hornby, resulting in flooding. Shoppers and movie-goers had to be evacuated.

From Hazardwatch.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Sat 01/10/2005 11:01

It will be boring when the SW start

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 02/10/2005 22:23

Aaron J Wilkinson wrote:It is?! Cool!

Can you conclude any thoughts John as to what we might expect from the weather we've had recently or anything?

Cheers

JohnGaul
NZTS

No I can't but it seems that despite what that leads to anything that could be interesting as we draw closer to the actual event, bugger all happens.
The exception being the recent low pressure drop on September 19th that lead to the tornadoes up north and the snow down here.
Pressures should drop very low over the coming week. That should mean strong SW changes and spring time thunderstorms ...
....but then no, will probably result in boring fine days or low cloud and drizzle with a freshoning of the wind from the SW when it has previously been NW or the change has come in early hence a thunderstormic change has been out of the question?

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Tue 04/10/2005 21:00

At this stage John I think Thursday afternoon is our day for thunderstorms during this period of unsettled weather etc. What are your thoughts?

Cheers

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 04/10/2005 21:58

My thoughts on Thursday for Canterbury.

Environment is going to be cold and wet after Wednesday's soaking so not much thermal lift off the terra firma. Hence, land based convection chances very subdued.

Saturday looks more unstable. I reckon Dunedin might just get its first thunderstorm of the season on Saturday.

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Tue 04/10/2005 22:01

Good thinking NZstorm, I was also thinking the same. lol. But yeah, I'm also woundering about how the cold burst on Wednesday will affect chances for Thursday.

Cheers

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 04/10/2005 23:35

JohnGaul
NZTS

I haven't as a yet given any prediction of any thunderstrom event for Canterbury this week, even though the barometer is low and we have an unstable airmass over us at the moment.
Thursday does look like a good candidate but then this is dependent on how cold the southerly event for tomorrow is and how severe it is??
Saturday looks as though something may happen but tradional indications don't really favour anything!!!

Manukau heads obs · Wed 05/10/2005 00:21

rain radar for canty shows the front has curled back into south canterbury, and there is some real heavy rain there now...(12:20am)

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Wed 05/10/2005 08:26

What a shithole of a day it is here this morning

Angel · Unread post by **Angel** » Wed 05/10/2005 11:38

Dunno about the rest of you's but we got rain and hail up here at the moment

spike_01 · Unread post by **spike_01** » Wed 05/10/2005 12:05

A typical Levin sky... All promise and no deliver...

ricky · Unread post by **ricky** » Wed 05/10/2005 12:42

well looking at the lightning maps it's delivering not too far from there lol

spike_01 · Unread post by **spike_01** » Wed 05/10/2005 12:56

Whats the site for the Lightening maps...

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Wed 05/10/2005 17:21

would hardly call the wether here boring quiet the opposite and looks like to b that way for the nxt few days

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Wed 05/10/2005 18:18

its boring as its cold its wet,horrible outside and windy

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Wed 05/10/2005 20:55

what would not be boring for you man hey beats drizzle

spike_01 · Unread post by **spike_01** » Wed 05/10/2005 21:00

Whoa talk about rain.... But thats all... It is persisting down...

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 09/10/2005 21:13

JohnGaul
NZTS

Latest ECMWF shows very boring weather coming up.
More so boring for this time of year?
...but then if you look at the plots very closely, they look quite undecided??

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Sun 09/10/2005 22:01

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:JohnGaul
NZTS

Latest ECMWF shows very boring weather coming up.
More so boring for this time of year?
...but then if you look at the plots very closely, they look quite undecided??

I think nothing in the next wee while