Another "cold blast" next week?

gllitznz · Unread post by **gllitznz** » Sat 01/10/2005 11:46

Hello All!
Greetings again from warm and sunny CHCH (absolutely lovely today!)...Just curious what y'all think...NOGAPS and GFS models showing another cold one comin' our way mid next week? Maybe some thunder boomers and hail?... Hmmm...prolly not as "bad" as 19 Sept, though...
Cheers!
-G

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Sat 01/10/2005 12:00

No not as strong, but does show prospect of first thunder of the season!!

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sat 01/10/2005 18:12

another cold one comin'

Nothing like the cold outbreak you had two weeks back.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Sat 01/10/2005 19:13

Nothing like the cold outbreak you had two weeks back.

That was a pretty extreme event (at least for so late in the season) for Chch and Canterbury, so I can't imagine it being repeated, certainly not until next winter. The next southerly may be cold, but should be relatively shortlived.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 01/10/2005 19:21

That was a pretty extreme event (at least for so late in the season) for Chch and Canterbury, so I can't imagine it being repeated, certainly not until next winter.

That sort of event is unusual enough in mid winter!

This next southerly looks like being a rain producer in the east, so farmers will be happy. I would say snow to 700m in Canterbury, 900m over the NI.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Sun 02/10/2005 00:57

That sort of event is unusual enough in mid winter!

Unusual maybe, but we've had them (significant snowfalls) in Chch in each of the previous (2002-2004) winters. Kind of a pattern actually - June 2002, July 2003, August 2004, September 2005. What next - snow blanketing Chch in October 2006?

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Mon 03/10/2005 22:43

I'll stick my head out by saying thursday evening and saturday are 'real' possiblites. Saturdays southerly will have to come through abit later in teh day though. But models can and will change! (for chch)

gllitznz · Unread post by **gllitznz** » Tue 04/10/2005 13:16

SPECIAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CANTERBURY
ISSUED BY METSERVICE AT 11:18am Tuesday 04-Oct-2005

WINDY, WET AND WINTRY ESPECIALLY ABOUT BANKS PENINSULA

MetService expects a deep low to hover just off the east of the South Island throughout Wednesday and drag a strong, cold southerly flow onto Canterbury.
At the same time, rain may linger across parts of Canterbury and possibly
become persistent around the Banks Peninsula. The air should be cold enough for snow on the top of Banks Peninsula where 5 to 10cm may settle above 800 metres and 1 to 5cm down to 500 metres. The combination of bitter southerly gales with wind gusts of 100 km/h and rain or snow are likely to make the air feel very cold, with wind chill temperatures between zero and -5 degrees Celsius which is likely to be severe for young stock.

People living in Canterbury, particularly around Banks Peninsula should keep up-to-date with the latest forecasts on this short-lived event.
.
.
.
....hmmm....

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Tue 04/10/2005 14:43

Good that Banks Peninsula farmers are again being warned of wintry conditions that could be hazardous to young stock. Tomorrow's situation looks like a weaker version of the low that produced the October 2000 storm. Tomorrow shouldn't be anywhere as bad as 2000, but still a bleak wet day, with snow on the higher levels. Chch probably won't escape this event, though most probably we'll be a little less stormy, eg strong winds instead of gales.

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Tue 04/10/2005 15:13

hmmmm, I can see strong to gale force winds on Bank's Peninsula tomorrow but snow to 500m I can't. I'd imagine there will be some up higher (above 8/900m), up to around 7 cm at most. I'm thinking the above is what will happen. 850mb temps only go down to around -1/-2 while there's precip, not to mention only a thickness of 536 at the lowest. I don't see any warm advection scenerio. Some colder air arrives later but things will be clearing at that stage. Vorticity isn't that big either. Perhaps it's better to be safe than sorry? Oh well, lets see what happens. Should be some rain which is always good for farmers! Maybe this event will work out well for farmers rather than something that could be detrimental.

Cheers

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Tue 04/10/2005 15:35

I can only see moderate to fresh winds in Chch, not "gale" as the MetService so often use

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Tue 04/10/2005 18:28

I see a strike by lake ellesmere, unsure if that is properly plotted?? seems to close maybe more like Timaru Area.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Tue 04/10/2005 18:37

Its really unstable for NW conditions here some rather highish cloouds almot CU and very dark too yes i seen that strike on tracker Steve.
Iam thinking hopefully thunder heard here Thursday night and of course Saturday.

here's hoping.
CHEERS
JASON.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 04/10/2005 18:49

Maybe this event will work out well for farmers rather than something that could be detrimental

Yes, a good day for the farmers tommorrow.

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Tue 04/10/2005 21:55

looking forward to some good thunder and hail 2morow

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Wed 05/10/2005 00:00

JohnGaul
NZTS

Barometer down to about 990hPa.
Nothing much happening?
Some stars above.
No sferics on the radio
Maybe the calm before the storm???

...hope so

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Wed 05/10/2005 09:23

Maybe the calm before the storm???

Well the 'storm' is now lashing Chch, with strong gusty southerlies, 8C, and rain at times.

spike_01 · Unread post by **spike_01** » Wed 05/10/2005 11:55

Just in from the Met Service...

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING.
ISSUED BY MetService AT 11:37 am 05-Oct-2005

SHORT PERIOD OF SEVERE GALES FOR THE BANKS PENINSULA AREA

MetService forecasters expect a deepening low to hang around close
enough to Canterbury to push a belt of severe southwest gales across
Banks Peninsula for a time before 9pm Wednesday. During this period,
wind gusts of 120 km/h are
likely in exposed parts of Banks Peninsula.

People living, working and travelling around Banks Peninsula should
be
prepared for nasty driving conditions and the combination of
windiness, cold and rain with a little snow about the higher peaks
will be a threat to young stock.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Wed 05/10/2005 12:15

It would be a big/unusal event down there as theyre not used to it.They would be with thir sunhats on the Avon river normally

Thats normal weather for up here

spike_01 wrote:Just in from the Met Service...

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING.
ISSUED BY MetService AT 11:37 am 05-Oct-2005

SHORT PERIOD OF SEVERE GALES FOR THE BANKS PENINSULA AREA

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Wed 05/10/2005 15:49

Rain has ceased this afternoon, but the cold gusty wind hasn't, and it's still cloudy.

It would be a big/unusal event down there as theyre not used to it.They would be with thir sunhats on the Avon river normally Thats normal weather for up here

Sticking out into the ocean, Banks Peninsula is usually more exposed to strong or gale southerlies/southwesterlies than Chch. Anyway, I guess Auckland is most certainly warmer than the 9C at present in Chch.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Wed 05/10/2005 16:03

Been gusting 60-70kmh here this afternoon but had one gust peaking at 84kmh this morning some small branches breaking in parks also to note alot of trees aroborists havnt touched after the snowstorm would still have big branches sitting at the tops and winds like these will break those off so stay away from parks with big trees people's of CHCH.
Abit like the 2000 southerly storm same format rained first up then winds picked up and rained stopped however not as strong in the city as 2000 but still strong enough.
Some CU inland before now i wonder if the SW winds will peak soon and rise to maybe 90-100kmh here as the isobars tighten lets just see.

Cheers
JASON.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Wed 05/10/2005 16:15

tich wrote:Rain has ceased this afternoon, but the cold gusty wind hasn't, and it's still cloudy.

It would be a big/unusal event down there as theyre not used to it.They would be with thir sunhats on the Avon river normally Thats normal weather for up here
Sticking out into the ocean, Banks Peninsula is usually more exposed to strong or gale southerlies/southwesterlies than Chch. Anyway, I guess Auckland is most certainly warmer than the 9C at present in Chch.

Colder in Taupo today, hasn't got past 9c, currently on 8c with strong squally southwesterlies

Though Gore and BP are fearing it worse in NS due to the wind chill factor

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Wed 05/10/2005 17:13

looks like you are in for same gales on banks eh esp with the low deppening and sitting just ofshore atm looks like you might get some action for a change

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Wed 05/10/2005 17:23

We got a couple of light dustings of snow to around the 6-800m mark on the hills in the MacKenzie today, followed by some brief hail, but it's blowing a gale(ish) now.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Wed 05/10/2005 19:34

If this pattern follows the last 4 or 5 years a record cold November will follow

NZ Weather Forum

Another "cold blast" next week?

Another "cold blast" next week?

hmmmm.....