Another "cold blast" next week?
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For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.
For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
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Another "cold blast" next week?
Hello All!
Greetings again from warm and sunny CHCH (absolutely lovely today!)...Just curious what y'all think...NOGAPS and GFS models showing another cold one comin' our way mid next week? Maybe some thunder boomers and hail?... Hmmm...prolly not as "bad" as 19 Sept, though...
Cheers!
-G
Greetings again from warm and sunny CHCH (absolutely lovely today!)...Just curious what y'all think...NOGAPS and GFS models showing another cold one comin' our way mid next week? Maybe some thunder boomers and hail?... Hmmm...prolly not as "bad" as 19 Sept, though...
Cheers!
-G
- 03Stormchaser
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No not as strong, but does show prospect of first thunder of the season!!
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- NZstorm
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That sort of event is unusual enough in mid winter!That was a pretty extreme event (at least for so late in the season) for Chch and Canterbury, so I can't imagine it being repeated, certainly not until next winter.
This next southerly looks like being a rain producer in the east, so farmers will be happy. I would say snow to 700m in Canterbury, 900m over the NI.
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I'll stick my head out by saying thursday evening and saturday are 'real' possiblites. Saturdays southerly will have to come through abit later in teh day though. But models can and will change! (for chch)
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hmmmm.....
SPECIAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CANTERBURY
ISSUED BY METSERVICE AT 11:18am Tuesday 04-Oct-2005
WINDY, WET AND WINTRY ESPECIALLY ABOUT BANKS PENINSULA
MetService expects a deep low to hover just off the east of the South Island throughout Wednesday and drag a strong, cold southerly flow onto Canterbury.
At the same time, rain may linger across parts of Canterbury and possibly
become persistent around the Banks Peninsula. The air should be cold enough for snow on the top of Banks Peninsula where 5 to 10cm may settle above 800 metres and 1 to 5cm down to 500 metres. The combination of bitter southerly gales with wind gusts of 100 km/h and rain or snow are likely to make the air feel very cold, with wind chill temperatures between zero and -5 degrees Celsius which is likely to be severe for young stock.
People living in Canterbury, particularly around Banks Peninsula should keep up-to-date with the latest forecasts on this short-lived event.
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....hmmm....
ISSUED BY METSERVICE AT 11:18am Tuesday 04-Oct-2005
WINDY, WET AND WINTRY ESPECIALLY ABOUT BANKS PENINSULA
MetService expects a deep low to hover just off the east of the South Island throughout Wednesday and drag a strong, cold southerly flow onto Canterbury.
At the same time, rain may linger across parts of Canterbury and possibly
become persistent around the Banks Peninsula. The air should be cold enough for snow on the top of Banks Peninsula where 5 to 10cm may settle above 800 metres and 1 to 5cm down to 500 metres. The combination of bitter southerly gales with wind gusts of 100 km/h and rain or snow are likely to make the air feel very cold, with wind chill temperatures between zero and -5 degrees Celsius which is likely to be severe for young stock.
People living in Canterbury, particularly around Banks Peninsula should keep up-to-date with the latest forecasts on this short-lived event.
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....hmmm....
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Good that Banks Peninsula farmers are again being warned of wintry conditions that could be hazardous to young stock. Tomorrow's situation looks like a weaker version of the low that produced the October 2000 storm. Tomorrow shouldn't be anywhere as bad as 2000, but still a bleak wet day, with snow on the higher levels. Chch probably won't escape this event, though most probably we'll be a little less stormy, eg strong winds instead of gales.
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hmmmm, I can see strong to gale force winds on Bank's Peninsula tomorrow but snow to 500m I can't. I'd imagine there will be some up higher (above 8/900m), up to around 7 cm at most. I'm thinking the above is what will happen. 850mb temps only go down to around -1/-2 while there's precip, not to mention only a thickness of 536 at the lowest. I don't see any warm advection scenerio. Some colder air arrives later but things will be clearing at that stage. Vorticity isn't that big either. Perhaps it's better to be safe than sorry? Oh well, lets see what happens. Should be some rain which is always good for farmers! Maybe this event will work out well for farmers rather than something that could be detrimental.
Cheers
Cheers
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- 03Stormchaser
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I see a strike by lake ellesmere, unsure if that is properly plotted?? seems to close maybe more like Timaru Area.
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- spike_01
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Just in from the Met Service...
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING.
ISSUED BY MetService AT 11:37 am 05-Oct-2005
SHORT PERIOD OF SEVERE GALES FOR THE BANKS PENINSULA AREA
MetService forecasters expect a deepening low to hang around close
enough to Canterbury to push a belt of severe southwest gales across
Banks Peninsula for a time before 9pm Wednesday. During this period,
wind gusts of 120 km/h are
likely in exposed parts of Banks Peninsula.
People living, working and travelling around Banks Peninsula should
be
prepared for nasty driving conditions and the combination of
windiness, cold and rain with a little snow about the higher peaks
will be a threat to young stock.
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING.
ISSUED BY MetService AT 11:37 am 05-Oct-2005
SHORT PERIOD OF SEVERE GALES FOR THE BANKS PENINSULA AREA
MetService forecasters expect a deepening low to hang around close
enough to Canterbury to push a belt of severe southwest gales across
Banks Peninsula for a time before 9pm Wednesday. During this period,
wind gusts of 120 km/h are
likely in exposed parts of Banks Peninsula.
People living, working and travelling around Banks Peninsula should
be
prepared for nasty driving conditions and the combination of
windiness, cold and rain with a little snow about the higher peaks
will be a threat to young stock.
- Michael
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It would be a big/unusal event down there as theyre not used to it.They would be with thir sunhats on the Avon river normally Thats normal weather for up here
spike_01 wrote:Just in from the Met Service...
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING.
ISSUED BY MetService AT 11:37 am 05-Oct-2005
SHORT PERIOD OF SEVERE GALES FOR THE BANKS PENINSULA AREA
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Rain has ceased this afternoon, but the cold gusty wind hasn't, and it's still cloudy.
Sticking out into the ocean, Banks Peninsula is usually more exposed to strong or gale southerlies/southwesterlies than Chch. Anyway, I guess Auckland is most certainly warmer than the 9C at present in Chch.It would be a big/unusal event down there as theyre not used to it.They would be with thir sunhats on the Avon river normally Thats normal weather for up here
- Storm Struck
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Been gusting 60-70kmh here this afternoon but had one gust peaking at 84kmh this morning some small branches breaking in parks also to note alot of trees aroborists havnt touched after the snowstorm would still have big branches sitting at the tops and winds like these will break those off so stay away from parks with big trees people's of CHCH.
Abit like the 2000 southerly storm same format rained first up then winds picked up and rained stopped however not as strong in the city as 2000 but still strong enough.
Some CU inland before now i wonder if the SW winds will peak soon and rise to maybe 90-100kmh here as the isobars tighten lets just see.
Cheers
JASON.
Abit like the 2000 southerly storm same format rained first up then winds picked up and rained stopped however not as strong in the city as 2000 but still strong enough.
Some CU inland before now i wonder if the SW winds will peak soon and rise to maybe 90-100kmh here as the isobars tighten lets just see.
Cheers
JASON.
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Colder in Taupo today, hasn't got past 9c, currently on 8c with strong squally southwesterliestich wrote:Rain has ceased this afternoon, but the cold gusty wind hasn't, and it's still cloudy.
Sticking out into the ocean, Banks Peninsula is usually more exposed to strong or gale southerlies/southwesterlies than Chch. Anyway, I guess Auckland is most certainly warmer than the 9C at present in Chch.It would be a big/unusal event down there as theyre not used to it.They would be with thir sunhats on the Avon river normally Thats normal weather for up here
Though Gore and BP are fearing it worse in NS due to the wind chill factor
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